I agree completely, evb149. These things are going to be mailed out to recipients, who will open the package they're in, activate them, and then be encouraged to put them back in the mail afterward. Part of the package will tear off to reveal a return-post label so literally all they'll have to do is read the part that says "Please tear here for return postage," actually tear it off, and then put it in a mailbox. I have very little faith that more than 20% of recipients will go to that much effort. I also expect that hackers will discover what's in these things, word will get around, and a handful will "disappear" into people's own projects, which I personally look forward to. I doubt my customers will share my perspective.
As far as coverage, they need to work basically anywhere that people live inside the United States. I can't rely on the recipient owning a cell phone at all, much less having it nearby when my product is activated, and I definitely can't rely on anything with less coverage than the cell phone network. It looks like NB-IoT has pretty solid coverage so I'll definitely look into that. Ultimately it depends on who the customer wants to mail these to.
SmallCog: I've got a NimbeLink Nano (documentation linked in my first post) and I've built a proof of concept using that. Unfortunately they're about $70 each, and their mounting requirements means the final product will be about 1/4 inch thick, which is huge compared to our requirements. A lot of other options are surface mount, which is much better.
But as I'm looking through those options I see things like this:
> Cellular GSM, GPRS Transceiver Module 850MHz, 900MHz, 1.8GHz, 1.9GHz Antenna Not Included Surface Mount
> Cellular GPRS, GSM, LTE Transceiver Module - Antenna Not Included Surface Mount
and I know what these things mean in isolation but not how they translate to the capacity of the device to do what I need. It feels like I'm trying to jump into the middle of a topic, so maybe I just need to get my HAM radio license so I can start from the beginning.