I would start by building a microstrip directional coupler/SWR detector for 70 cm. Build and characterize that independently first, testing forward and reflected readings at several power levels and with known mismatches. At 30 W and 440 MHz, layout, coupling, directivity and detector behavior matter — this is no longer multimeter-probing territory.
Once the forward/reflected measurements are trustworthy, the foldback itself is relatively straightforward: an MCU with two ADC inputs for forward and reflected power, and an output controlling the PA drive or bias. That could be a DAC/PWM-derived analog control voltage, or even a simple 3-level scheme: full power → reduced power → shutdown.
I’d also make the hardware capable of very fast reflected-power protection independent of the MCU. Let an analog comparator immediately reduce/kill drive on a severe mismatch, while the MCU handles slower SWR calculation, foldback, hysteresis, timing and recovery.