Finished the measurements, as mentioned before the supply voltage is horrible, not only that it is actually load dependent ~20Vrms (light load, new fan standby speed) not 12Vrms.
I don't like the over voltage for the fan, but if it dies it dies, problem for future me
The fan controller AliExpress page is says it will operate from 8V to 18V. I looked up the LDO part number (78l05) on LCSC and it seems it can handle 35V max, assuming the 0603 capacitors 0.33uf and 0.1uF are 35V, 50V or higher I should be fine.
I attached my full notes including measurement data as pdf.
I measured the supply voltage with my scope in the following situations:
- original fan;
- original fan +200 uF (two SMD solidstate 25V 100uF capacitors
https://www.lcsc.com/product-detail/Solid-Capacitors_AISHI-Aihua-Group-SVZ1EM101E06E00RAXXX_C320569.html)
- fan controller without fan
- fan controller without fan +200 uF
- fan controller with fan (ID-COOLING NO-8010-PWM)
- fan controller with fan (ID-COOLING NO-8010-PWM) + 200uF
again another quick project that took way longer then expected