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Yes, I sincerely hope China (and other nations) is paying close attention to Russia's folly in Ukraine. However, governments don't seem to ever learn that the home field advantage is very strong. Multiple governments, including Russia and the USA, have been taught that in Afghanistan. The USA certainly got taught that in Vietnam. Now Russia is learning it again.
One difference is that China seems willing to go farther than even Russia (and the old USSR) with its suppression of dissent. Tienamen (sp?) Square, and more recently Hong Kong, showed that China really doesn't care how the outside world views its handling of internal affairs. They just get the job done. And the world's (non)reaction, its willingness to continue business as usual, does nothing to dissuade China from continuing that approach.
Do you believe the world would rally Ukraine style behind Taiwan if China were the aggressor? I'm not so sure. I want to say Yes. And I want to think that China believes that too, and will temper its otherwise rather overt recent comments about "reunification" of Taiwan. -
I hope we would rally behind Taiwan. There are lots of great people there and Not supporting their independence would be just nuts.
Taiwan is Taiwan and PRC China is PRC China. Period. End of problem, hopefully.
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Shenzhen lockdown:
- China Locks Down Shenzhen, Jilin as Cases Spread: Virus Update (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-14/shenzhen-tightens-shipping-rules-to-cut-infections-virus-update-l0q1wikc)
- Apple supplier Foxconn halts operations in Shenzhen as China locks down tech hub (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/14/tech/shenzhen-lockdown-foxconn-operations-intl-hnk/index.html) -
Donguan also locked down.
I am trying to extract a moulding tool from there, so in addition to dealing with the usual gangsters and extortionists I now have to wait... Somebody would collect the tool (50km) for USD 400
China has been melting down for years; the only reason Apple etc are still there is because a) it is cheaper than California (N.S. Sherlock, as they say here
) and b) they have some 3 digit number of Yanks right there, watching and kicking butt.
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China has been melting down for years;
That's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean? -
China has been melting down for years;
That's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean?
It is curious. -
China has been melting down for years;
That's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean?
It is curious.
Melting down all the steel we send them?
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That's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean?
A steep decline in business ethics.
A steep shortening in how long a person stays in a job, so "relationship continuity" is hard.
A steep increase in company failures. Most of these are due to fraud, which has led the govt there to adopt aggressive measures on failing companies; basically everything which has not been stolen by the employees (it is normal for employees to steal what they can, if a business goes bust, and it happens in the West too) gets locked up in a warehouse, basically for ever, or until somebody else steals it In some cases the original management steals it and offers to sell it back to the original customers; I've had that a few times
A steep rise in blatent opportunism.
All the above especially in the last 5-10 years.
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Digi-Key sent an email updating their expected delivery to DECEMBER 2022! I placed an order with Rochester Electronics, and they show expected ship on Mar 22, AND $4 cheaper per part! Well, I won't declare victory until the parts show up, but this is good news. I don't understand the crazy business going on between Digi-Key and Rochester. Why can I order directly from Rochester, but Digi-Key can't deliver parts from them for 9 months?Arrgh! I ordered some parts from Digi-Key. One is the Analog Devices AD2S1200 resolver-digital converter chip, Digi-Key shows 322 in stock at Rochester Electronics, but they can't ship until June 26th! Why does D-K show stock at Rochester if they are all allocated? Seems deceptive!
I spent all WEEK trying to call Rochester, they never return calls, never answer. Groan. Analog Devices has the part, but minimum order is 100 pieces. They do give a volume discount, but still $17 each. That is a fairly big order for me.
Jon
Jon
Anybody understand this?
Jon -
So, your saying that have rapidly learned from western countries? They seem to be doing so in most areas.QuoteThat's a curious comment, can you elaborate on what you mean?
A steep decline in business ethics.
A steep shortening in how long a person stays in a job, so "relationship continuity" is hard.
A steep increase in company failures. Most of these are due to fraud, which has led the govt there to adopt aggressive measures on failing companies; basically everything which has not been stolen by the employees (it is normal for employees to steal what they can, if a business goes bust, and it happens in the West too) gets locked up in a warehouse, basically for ever, or until somebody else steals it In some cases the original management steals it and offers to sell it back to the original customers; I've had that a few times
A steep rise in blatent opportunism.
All the above especially in the last 5-10 years.
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There was a magnitude 7.3 earthquake this morning off the coast of Japan that has the potential of impacting chip production in Japanese fabs. If that turns out to be the case, expect further chip shortages.
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Speculating on the points about whether politics can solve supply problems (unlikely in my opinion), or how bad he crisi would get if taiwan was attacked... I doubt China would try for actual war, the way Russia has. No, Beijing's communists are probably much more interested in "soft" ways of world domination. Getting the west addicted to cheap manufacturd goods, tick, and we're all guilty of helping that given how China is virtually the only source for so much stuff, and so we keep on buying. Ingratiating their ideology in to global power structures and supposedly neutral international institutions, tick. Constant human rights abuse and marketing it as an example for the rest of the world to follow, tick. The communists who are crushing the rights of the Chinese people don't so much want to rule the world by invasion as make the rest of the world like them, then lead by example. I don't think they'd go for open war, they can get much further than Putin (who they are no doubt laughing at as thuggish, incompetent and unsophisticated) by working behind the scenes.
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They aren't really Communists. Thats "just an act" my friend the expert tells me.
The same situation exists in many supposedly "democratic" countries where the real politics revolve around the neoliberal economics espoused by the Mount Perelin Society, etc. (which is oligarchical and against democracy which it calls "mob rule") Also, the political and economic worlds and powers are kept separate under double government. Which is derived in no small part from the practice of the British Empire in its colonies.
Many are angry and railing at so called zombie companies which they feel should be out of business but are somehow hanging on and dragging down the economy with them.
Seems to me the real crisis we face is a greed crisis.. -
Quote
So, your saying that have rapidly learned from western countries? They seem to be doing so in most areas.
That's well over the top cynical. I've been in this business since 1978. Overt bribery died out here c. 1990 in private industry. Carried on for another 20 years in the State sector. The level of corporate transparency is orders of magnitude better in the West. Still a lot of funny business getting onto "approved supplier list" of big companies (this empire building sh*t started c. 1990) which manifests itself in old mates of politicians getting NHS contracts) but on the whole things do function.
But even if you don't agree, compare the practicalities. Here, you can pop down there, mostly in your car, and check it out. With a supplier in China, you can get on a plane and fly there. Then find an interpreter. Then make your way to
Tina Wu
Ever Reliability Loving Industrial Mfg Co Ltd
Room 12345
Suite 345b
Floor 189
Building 785
Wing Chong Hung Street
Gwoon Bang Industrial District
Shenguan City
and when you get to Room 12345 to find out what happened to your work in progress and tooling which you paid $1000s for, you find, what? No sign of Miss Wu. No sign of your stock and WIP...
That is why Apple etc have their own people at Foxconn, watching, and kicking ass as needed.
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It is a similar thing in my home country of Brasil: there are lots of people and companies that are exceedingly good at what they do, follow the norms/regulations, honor the contracts and warranties, etc.
However, the proportion of bad businesses and professionals is still significant, since society itself puts a proportionally lower value on these traits when compared to where I live in the US and from my experiences abroad. This is not only due in great part to the economic pressure, where cutting corners are much more widespread and accepted, but also to the erosion of family and values taught at home: honor, common decency, etc.
I don't know China to see how ahead/behind they are in this, but I have some good experiences from my work and heard bad stories from friends and from the internet.
Unfortunately I see several areas in the US going the exact same way of deseducation and bending of social contracts. I know where this ends. I have experienced it. -
That is true; things are not getting better over here, in some areas. But the key difference is that you can't just drop in on somebody in China, and they know it.
They know they have you by the balls. And the old saying "possession is nine tenths of the law" is 100% true when the "injured party" cannot just visit.
The old business trick in the West has been: set up a business in the middle of nowhere (say Scotland) and a long way from your suppliers (say south of England). Run it overtly for a year. Then when you have credit accounts with a load of suppliers, do a runner. After 60 days they will start chasing their money, but as you stopped paying your phone bills a few months earlier, the phone will be cut off. As you made sure you owe nobody more than say 2k, who will drive hundreds of miles to give you trouble, for < 2k? Of course you pay off all taxes, and then you will never be disqualified as a Director (in practice that's how it works).
The above is not easy, because if you p1ss off somebody badly, they can give you a lot of trouble here. They could even visit you with a baseball bat, if you are in the building trade
In China it is dead easy because you can steal anything from anybody (in Europe, etc) and there will be no comeback. Each contract has to be treated as a one-off. I used to build several finished products there. All stopped after one vanished, stealing a 5k moulding tool and about 10k's worth of test gear I built, 2 weeks after the last batch was loaded onto the ship!
For those "small" people among us, with no practical possibility of hanging out in China, the place is good for "isolated" jobs like buying 10k moulded cables, or PCBs, etc. Or machined parts; they are great for those, because everybody with a 5 axis CNC here in the West wants to have a big house with three T34 tanks in their drive
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situation as I see it
do not believe everything your been told as news, the first casualty is known to us by now.
It would seem the 50 year old doctrine of MAD was replaced by the game of chicken
The West will in probability will be severely shaken when
Taiwan falls to China and Saudi Arabia abandoneds the Petrodollar. for a new PetroYuan.
did you not know, to the victor go the spoils of War.
just to have The effeminate West blink, shed tears then yield and so avoid doomsday.
if you can call it good news. -
That is why Apple etc have their own people at Foxconn, watching, and kicking ass as needed.
Well, that's the thing with any form of outsourcing. You have to do it in a way that requires the minimum of trust from both sides if you want it to go well. This isn't good for people doing it on a small scale. As usual, things favour large corporate entities. Walmart has 5000 staff in Shenzhen just controlling their contracts with suppliers. Being inside China they can frequently meet suppliers, inspect factories, check approvals and other monitoring are legit, etc. Small players can't do that. If you try to recruit your own team on the far side they will generally treat you with great suspicion, assuming your goals are short term, while they need a way to sustain a 40 year career. You need to take very positive steps to ensure they understand you are genuinely there for the long haul, if they can succeed in making you succeed.
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I get your drift, of course (amazing about Wallmart) but I doubt anybody is after a 40 year old career in today's China. More like 40 months, max. Usual job span for the English speaking sales person is about 6 months...
This is the big change since say 20 years ago. Fast buck is the name of the game. Collateral damage doesn't matter. Oh and btw you steal the customer database on your way out of the door. Try buying some PCBs from a Chinese company; over the next weeks you will be snowed under with emails from other PCB companies. JLCPCB is not immune, too. -
just to have The effeminate West blink, shed tears then yield and so avoid doomsday.
It's feeling more and more like the West's peak of achievement was the Apollo moon landings. Today the West is more concerned about everyone's "feelings" instead of achieving new accomplishments and moving the marker forward. I don't mean to throw anyone under the bus, but you need a balance and right now the West is extremely unbalanced toward "feelings" and away from achievements.
"Don't confuse activity with achievement." You can be (or look, or spend) really busy yet achieve nothing. -
I get your drift, of course (amazing about Wallmart) but I doubt anybody is after a 40 year old career in today's China. More like 40 months, max. Usual job span for the English speaking sales person is about 6 months...
Don't judge the entire job market by one rare skill in high demand. Most engineers in Chinese want to settle into a place that's successful, and do OK there for years. Chinese people have a much greater urge to start their own business than people in the UK, but they only job hope because its the only way to move forwards.
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There was a magnitude 7.3 earthquake this morning off the coast of Japan that has the potential of impacting chip production in Japanese fabs. If that turns out to be the case, expect further chip shortages.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-parts-makers-halt-output-after-quake-another-blow-supply-chain-2022-03-17/ -
just to have The effeminate West blink, shed tears then yield and so avoid doomsday.
It's feeling more and more like the West's peak of achievement was the Apollo moon landings. Today the West is more concerned about everyone's "feelings" instead of achieving new accomplishments and moving the marker forward. I don't mean to throw anyone under the bus, but you need a balance and right now the West is extremely unbalanced toward "feelings" and away from achievements.
As exemplified by participation trophies... -
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-parts-makers-halt-output-after-quake-another-blow-supply-chain-2022-03-17/
There was a quake on the south coast of China last week. It wasn't strong enough to cause damage in Taiwan, but I expect that messed up any work in progress at TSMC that day.
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That is true; things are not getting better over here, in some areas. But the key difference is that you can't just drop in on somebody in China, and they know it.
Indeed. The system is designed like that. Ultra-large corporations bring palpable benefits to the manufacturing/exporter country, so mechanisms were put in place to minimize the risk of losing this business. The success stories of these ventures brought a slew of smaller and smaller companies that needed the cost reductions to be able to compete, but the enforcement was never intended to cover everyone - only the powerful can benefit. This is an even greater risk for technology-based companies, which rely on intellectual property protection to stay ahead.
They know they have you by the balls. And the old saying "possession is nine tenths of the law" is 100% true when the "injured party" cannot just visit.The old business trick in the West has been: set up a business in the middle of nowhere (say Scotland) and a long way from your suppliers (say south of England). Run it overtly for a year. Then when you have credit accounts with a load of suppliers, do a runner. After 60 days they will start chasing their money, but as you stopped paying your phone bills a few months earlier, the phone will be cut off. As you made sure you owe nobody more than say 2k, who will drive hundreds of miles to give you trouble, for < 2k? Of course you pay off all taxes, and then you will never be disqualified as a Director (in practice that's how it works).
That is true unless you "know people" - it was like that in Brasil, and it is being much more evident and blatantly obvious here in the US, as recent local events here show (release of a convict "pseudo-actor" just because of his victimization cards, sudden realization of a revealing laptop that belonged to the son of the current zombie-in-chief and so on).
The above is not easy, because if you p1ss off somebody badly, they can give you a lot of trouble here. They could even visit you with a baseball bat, if you are in the building trade
Again, I have lived through this and know where it ends.
In China it is dead easy because you can steal anything from anybody (in Europe, etc) and there will be no comeback. Each contract has to be treated as a one-off. I used to build several finished products there. All stopped after one vanished, stealing a 5k moulding tool and about 10k's worth of test gear I built, 2 weeks after the last batch was loaded onto the ship!
For those "small" people among us, with no practical possibility of hanging out in China, the place is good for "isolated" jobs like buying 10k moulded cables, or PCBs, etc. Or machined parts; they are great for those, because everybody with a 5 axis CNC here in the West wants to have a big house with three T34 tanks in their drive
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