Author Topic: AI destroying economic system  (Read 8803 times)

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Offline paulca

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #75 on: August 26, 2026, 08:09:47 am »
If you look at a modern OS's memory "map" you will find the vast majority of it is cache.

It depends on OS as to how it shows this and many steps you need to take to get a figure for it, but on an average linux system it's the vast majority.

A humble little desktop.  16Gb of installed LPDDR4.  The memory contents with it been running for an hour under light use is:

13.8Gb total = The 5800G consumes RAM for framebuffers, so there is 2.2Gb gone in 4K GPU level buffers.  You can't really argue your way out of that one.  Do the maths, how large in memory is a 4k screen buffer at 32bit depth?  In fact, write that number down and use it as your measuring stick.  In fact go look at OS's that don't have a display at all and see how they consume RAM.

2.8Gb "used".  This is memory which has been allocated and commited, aka, actually accessed and consumed by an application.

Free: 8Gb.

However and this is what confuses people a lot, "10.5Gb 'available".  The difference is the cache "3Gb" and buffers "0.2Gb".

if you dig into that "User" chunk, you will probably find a wide margin between "allocated, accessed, consumed" in terms of pages.  Applications boot with several memory pages already assigned and when they ask for more they come in pages, not the size they requested.  There are many debates on the best way to allocate memory for this reason.  If you make two calls to memalloc you are very likely to get two pages.  Even if you asked for 50 bytes each.

In the 32Mb era, OSs ran on "monolithic flat memory" with no inter process protection.  So applications could allocate RAM for themselves in any size or multiple, in theory anyway.  Paging and virtual memory mechanisms are, if you want to point a finger, hugely inefficient with memory allocation.

And yes.  The motiviation to 'waste' memory is real and very simple.  If you take 2 weeks to write some code and it consumes 2Gb of RAM because of lazy sloopy inefficient use, the question for the business is... "Does it stop it making money?"  and "How much is it to optimise it?" and "How much is RAM on our EC2 bill?"

They do the maths and close the project.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2026, 08:12:23 am by paulca »
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #76 on: August 26, 2026, 08:40:23 am »
If you look at a modern OS's memory "map" you will find the vast majority of it is cache.

That makes sense - it's not a real memory "use" or "allocation" in a sense that someone decided that "now this system will use 8GB as cache", rather, it's a sensible use for any amount of leftover after the allocations. It's the mechanism by which extra RAM brings modest performance increase; recently accessed files open faster, recently launched programs start faster. Putting the excess RAM to good use.

Reducing bloat also directly reduces the benefit of this cache - with less bloat, the faster things run even without caching, and the more fits in the cache. So a quadratic gain.

And storage nowadays is "just" an order of magnitude behind RAM in speed; NVMe / M.2 interfaces/similar killed the remaining interface penalty (SATA).
 

Offline paulca

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #77 on: August 26, 2026, 08:47:38 am »
If you look at a modern OS's memory "map" you will find the vast majority of it is cache.

That makes sense - it's not a real memory "use" or "allocation" in a sense that someone decided that "now this system will use 8GB as cache", rather, it's a sensible use for any amount of leftover after the allocations. It's the mechanism by which extra RAM brings modest performance increase; recently accessed files open faster, recently launched programs start faster. Putting the excess RAM to good use.

Reducing bloat also directly reduces the benefit of this cache - with less bloat, the faster things run even without caching, and the more fits in the cache. So a quadratic gain.

And storage nowadays is "just" an order of magnitude behind RAM in speed; NVMe / M.2 interfaces/similar killed the remaining interface penalty (SATA).

If you run "heavy weight" applications or worse, "Virtual machine based" applications and I don't mean like "Hypervisor" style VM, I mean things like .Net Java et. al.

Large games ... actually nearly all game engines use this model and so on boot they use "Greedy allocation".  They allocate on the OS the portion of RAM it want's to "offer" it's virtual clients.  This is not necessarily what those clients actually need, rather a large block of allocation for all possible scnarioes.

So you run a Java app and complain that 4Gb of your RAM diappeared.  Thats because Java allocated 4Gb for it's own use within it's VM and it's very often a hard allocation, not sparse.  The VM itself has RAM affinity in many areas so gets selected last for paging to disk.

Things like "SNAP" and other "App containers" all bundle with their dependencies.  These container ised loads are also often "Allocate what you might need" basis.  So you run 4 SNAPS and you have 4 different glibc libraries linked and cached.

EDIT:  The programmer themselves often doesn't have a view of memory or a good one if they do.  Consider that on a 32bit machine, you can call malloc and ask for 3.9Gb of RAM and it will say, "Sure boss ,here is your pointer".  Even if you only had 1Gb of physical RAM installed.

It is only when you go to write something into each page will the kernel (OOMspinner) literally kills your process.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2026, 08:52:22 am by paulca »
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Offline kite31

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #78 on: August 26, 2026, 10:04:43 am »
In relation to this query:
Quote
> How can I convert a number such as 123.456 to IEEE single float by hand?

.....

## Final Result
The IEEE single-precision representation is:
0 10000101 11101101110100100000000

In hexadecimal: 0x4276D900
Is there a better model I should run on my 32 GB RAM (RISC-V) Raspberry Pi?
Qwen3.6 35b-a3b should load in that. Here is the final part of its attempt at the above problem:
Quote
Step 5: Assemble the 32 Bits
Sign  | Exponent (8)  | Mantissa (23)
------+---------------+---------------------------
  0   | 10000101      | 11101101110101110000101
Full 32-bit binary:
0 10000101 11101101110101110000101

Group into 4-bit nibbles for hexadecimal:
0100 0010 1111 0110 1110 1011 1000 0101
4   2   F   6   E   B   8   5

✅ Final Result: 0x42F6EB85
It took up 20.5GB in a 32GB machine and generated 7456 tokens. I am using different hardware and model type (MLX) which results in a faster tps of 45.

So, yes, small models can answer questions quite effectively even without internet connection, and are improving as we can see from Qwen3.5 to 3.6 used above, and now 3.8.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #79 on: August 26, 2026, 10:05:52 am »
They allocate on the OS the portion of RAM it want's to "offer" it's virtual clients.

Oh, sure, and programs in general just allocate whatever huge amounts for no real reason. So above when I said "after allocations", I meant the true, actual allocations, which the OS figures out - what's actually kept in physical memory (versus, being in swap, or nowhere at all). It's not an easy task, OS kernels are quite advanced today. So as a result, you can malloc() away however you wish and malloc() rarely if ever fails. The disconnect between physical memory and application-visible allocations is larger than ever.

OS must deliver the best possible outcome out of this poor programming; it's what it must do, because random application developers over many decades never took memory allocation as a serious business. That's inevitable, and I do think the responsibility shift (which already was happening like 20 years ago, this isn't a new thing) is correct, the purpose of OS is exactly to make application development easier.
 

Online brucehoult

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #80 on: August 26, 2026, 11:47:05 am »
Quote
Is there a better model I should run on my 32 GB RAM (RISC-V) Raspberry Pi?
Qwen3.6 35b-a3b should load in that. Here is the final part of its attempt at the above problem:

Well yeah and I've been using Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q4_K_XL.gguf for several months now.

Waiting for a similar Qwen 3.8 to be released .. I've tried 27B dense and it won't load.

gemma-4-26B-A4B-it-QAT-Q4_0.gguf is better for some things but worse on others.
 

Online temperance

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #81 on: August 26, 2026, 11:49:47 am »
Just scanning trough this thread

Quote
A recent interview with Elon Musk gave away where this is going imo. Musk claimed we won't need doctors because a humanoid robot AI can do the same job much better, faster and cheaper with no benefits, food or rest required.

 :-DD

idiot. Of course you can't put a sandwich into a computer to power it. A fruit fly consumes about 30 µW to fly and scan for food. They replicated a fruit fly brain on some video card. The video card consumes 300 W and doesn't fly.

https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/what-is-brain-emulation-fruit-fly-eon-systems
 

Online brucehoult

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #82 on: August 26, 2026, 02:01:12 pm »
Just scanning trough this thread

Quote
A recent interview with Elon Musk gave away where this is going imo. Musk claimed we won't need doctors because a humanoid robot AI can do the same job much better, faster and cheaper with no benefits, food or rest required.

 :-DD

idiot. Of course you can't put a sandwich into a computer to power it. A fruit fly consumes about 30 µW to fly and scan for food. They replicated a fruit fly brain on some video card. The video card consumes 300 W and doesn't fly.

https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/what-is-brain-emulation-fruit-fly-eon-systems

If it works at all then that's the hard part done. The rest is just a few decades of generic technology progress.

Apparently the human brain uses about 20W.

My SpacemiT K3 board uses 14W when running gemma-4-26B-A4B-it-QAT-Q4_0.gguf and can solve many kinds of problems and write or review or bugfind in code faster than I can.

That's getting there.
 

Online brucehoult

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #83 on: August 26, 2026, 02:57:11 pm »
I just tried another test on my local 14W machine running Gemma4.

On another thread I recently posted the following code, in that case also with the output.

Code: [Select]
            .globl main
    main:
            fli.d f0, 3
            fli.d f1, -1
            fli.d f2, 1
            li a0, 0
            li a1, 6
            li a2, 18
            li a3, 12
   
    0:      add a0, a0, a1
            add a1, a1, a2
            add a2, a2, a3
            fmv.d f4, f0
            fcvt.d.l f3, a0
            fdiv.d f3, f2, f3
            fadd.d f0, f0, f3
            fmul.d f2, f2, f1
            feq.d a4, f0, f4
            beqz a4, 0b
   
            la a0, msg
            fmv.x.d a1, f0
            tail printf
   
    msg:    .asciz "%.17g\n"

I just threw this at Gemma4 and said "What does it calculate?"

It took around an hour and got the correct answer analytically.

The funny thing was the first 40 minutes it went down the wrong track, somehow not noticing the fmul.d that flips the sign of each term. It correctly worked out, from expanding only the first three terms, that the result, without the sign flipping, would be $6 - 4\ln(2)$.

But then it noticed its error and corrected.

    *   Wait, I missed something. The `f2` term.
    *   In my sum calculation, I assumed $f3 = 1/a0$.
    *   But the code says:
        `fcvt.d.l f3, a0`
        `fdiv.d f3, f2, f3`
        This means $f3 = f2 / a0$.
    *   Since $f2$ alternates between $1$ and $-1$, the terms being added to $f0$ are:
        $1/a0_1, -1/a0_2, 1/a0_3, -1/a0_4 \dots$
    *   Wait, let's re-trace $f2$.
        *   Start: $f2 = 1.0$
        *   Iter 1: $f3 = 1/a0_1$. Then $f2 = 1 \times -1 = -1$.
        *   Iter 2: $f3 = -1/a0_2$. Then $f2 = -1 \times -1 = 1$.
        *   Iter 3: $f3 = 1/a0_3$. Then $f2 = 1 \times -1 = -1$.
    *   So the sum is $S = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{a0_n}$.

    *   $a0_n = n(n+1)(2n+1)$.
    *   $S = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{n(n+1)(2n+1)}$.
    *   Use partial fractions: $\frac{1}{n(n+1)(2n+1)} = \frac{1}{n} + \frac{1}{n+1} - \frac{4}{2n+1}$.
    *   $S = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} (-1)^{n-1} (\frac{1}{n} + \frac{1}{n+1} - \frac{4}{2n+1})$
    *   $S = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{n} + \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{n+1} - 4 \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{2n+1}$

    *   Term 1: $\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{n} = 1 - 1/2 + 1/3 - 1/4 \dots = \ln(2)$.
    *   Term 2: $\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{n+1} = 1/2 - 1/3 + 1/4 - 1/5 \dots$
        We know $\ln(2) = 1 - 1/2 + 1/3 - 1/4 \dots$
        So $1/2 - 1/3 + 1/4 \dots = 1 - \ln(2)$.
    *   Term 3: $\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{2n+1} = 1/3 - 1/5 + 1/7 - 1/9 \dots$
        We know $\arctan(x) = x - x^3/3 + x^5/5 \dots$
        For $x=1$, $\pi/4 = 1 - 1/3 + 1/5 - 1/7 \dots$
        So $1/3 - 1/5 + 1/7 \dots = 1 - \pi/4$.

    *   Combine them:
        $S = \ln(2) + (1 - \ln(2)) - 4(1 - \pi/4)$
        $S = 1 - 4 + \pi = \pi - 3$.

    *   Wait, let's check the sign of Term 3.
        The series is $\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{2n+1}$.
        $n=1 \rightarrow (-1)^0 / 3 = 1/3$.
        $n=2 \rightarrow (-1)^1 / 5 = -1/5$.
        $n=3 \rightarrow (-1)^2 / 7 = 1/7$.
        So $1/3 - 1/5 + 1/7 \dots$
        Yes, this is $1 - \pi/4$.

    *   Let's re-calculate $S$:
        $S = \ln(2) + (1 - \ln(2)) - 4(1 - \pi/4)$
        $S = 1 - 4 + \pi = \pi - 3$.

    *   $f0_{initial} = 3.0$
    *   $f0_{final} = 3 + (\pi - 3) = \pi$.

    *   $a0_1 = 6$
    *   $a0_2 = 30$
    *   $a0_3 = 84$
    *   $f0$ starts at 3.
    *   $f2$ starts at 1.
    *   $f1 = -1$.
    *   $a1 = 6, a2 = 18, a3 = 12$.

    *   **Iter 1:**
        *   $a0 = 0 + 6 = 6$
        *   $a1 = 6 + 18 = 24$
        *   $a2 = 18 + 12 = 30$
        *   $f3 = 1/6$
        *   $f0 = 3 + 1/6$
        *   $f2 = -1$
    *   **Iter 2:**
        *   $a0 = 6 + 24 = 30$
        *   $a1 = 24 + 30 = 54$
        *   $a2 = 30 + 12 = 42$
        *   $f3 = -1/30$
        *   $f0 = 3 + 1/6 - 1/30$
        *   $f2 = 1$
    *   **Iter 3:**
        *   $a0 = 30 + 54 = 84$
        *   $a1 = 54 + 42 = 96$
        *   $a2 = 42 + 12 = 54$
        *   $f3 = 1/84$
        *   $f0 = 3 + 1/6 - 1/30 + 1/84$
        *   $f2 = -1$

    *   Sum is $3 + (1/6 - 1/30 + 1/84 - \dots)$
    *   General term: $\frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{n(n+1)(2n+1)}$
    *   Sum $S = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{n(n+1)(2n+1)} = \pi - 3$.
    *   $f0 = 3 + \pi - 3 = \pi$.

    *   `la a0, msg`
    *   `fmv.x.d a1, f0`
    *   `tail printf`
    *   `msg: .asciz "%.17g\n"`
    *   This prints the value of $f0$ with 17 significant digits.

    *   $f0 = \pi \approx 3.1415926535897932$

    *   The program calculates the value of $\pi$ using a series expansion.
    *   Specifically, it computes $3 + \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{(-1)^{n-1}}{n(n+1)(2n+1)}$.
    *   The result is $\pi$.
[End thinking]

The provided RISC-V assembly code calculates the value of **$\pi$ (pi)**.

I don't know how many people on this Earth would have all the different bits of knowledge needed to figure this out in an hour ... or at all. And without reference to anything external. The machine didn't look up anything on the internet to do this, or run any external programs in Python or C or anything else. It's purely what a human could do with nothing more than pen and paper.

Certainly some of the people on this forum reading this could. But in the general population? It would be rare for a random person to understand the assembly language, let alone figure out the linear recurrence, or the series, or be able to analyse the limit of the series. Most mathematicians who could do the last parts would not know RISC-V assembly language (or any other). Most people who are familiar with assembly language probably can't do the math part.

Both Grok and Google AI take around 5 seconds to simply print the answer, complete with the name of the series being summed, and noting the linear recurrence being used to generate the polynomial. ChatGPT is much less helpful, it just notes the series, not the analytical result of the series. Claude gets the right answer but takes far longer than Grok or Google AI.

But I find it remarkable that a machine I can put in my jeans front pocket and that uses less power than a human brain can do this.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2026, 02:58:49 pm by brucehoult »
 
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #84 on: August 26, 2026, 03:34:43 pm »
If it works at all then that's the hard part done. The rest is just a few decades of generic technology progress.

Apparently the human brain uses about 20W.

My SpacemiT K3 board uses 14W when running gemma-4-26B-A4B-it-QAT-Q4_0.gguf and can solve many kinds of problems and write or review or bugfind in code faster than I can.

That's getting there.

It's not like we need to replicate fruit fly brain signals 1:1 exactly to have intelligence - it's an interesting scientific experiment, that's all.

Energy parity per human intelligence has been surpassed already. Maybe human brain uses about 20W and does it at maybe 10% efficiency (conversion from human fuel into processing), or maybe 1% if we include the food chain efficiency. Or even worse. So we are talking about kilowatts of input power, which is always on.

Frontier models in datacenters have 10x more "neurons" than human brain already (not directly comparable though) and run around 0.5kW - 1kW while inferring in a tight, agentic loop, and produce human-level (in some fields, greatly surpassing, on some other specialties, lacking) output at 100x the speed of human.

So existing AI is already at least an order of magnitude beyond human brain in energy efficiency. The expensive per-token cost of companies like Anthropic (who is the only with sustainable pricing reflecting the true cost) is maybe 1% energy and 99% amortizing infrastructure / R&D costs.

The comparison is of course apples to oranges and I don't suggest reading anything between the lines, but that's the rough ballpark for programming / scientific / engineering work humans are very inefficient at. Without humans, of course, any of that wouldn't exist, and without human operators, AI would not be able to keep all that running, so the comparison is indeed moot.

Your SpacemiT experiment is extremely low-efficiency in comparison to batched and optimized datacenter work, but that's normal for local inference, and even that isn't a bad number at all, even that's probably better than a human, as you point out it solves many problems way faster than a human while using less power.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2026, 03:40:19 pm by Siwastaja »
 

Offline vad

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #85 on: August 26, 2026, 07:30:43 pm »
Apparently the human brain uses about 20W.

My SpacemiT K3 board uses 14W when running gemma-4-26B-A4B-it-QAT-Q4_0.gguf and can solve many kinds of problems and write or review or bugfind in code faster than I can.
How many gigawatts did it take to train Gemma 4?

Also, how many terawatt-hours would it take to learn to ride a bicycle, something a typical 5-year-old learns in under an hour?
 

Offline booscrawl

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #86 on: August 26, 2026, 09:00:04 pm »
13.8Gb total = The 5800G consumes RAM for framebuffers, so there is 2.2Gb gone in 4K GPU level buffers.  You can't really argue your way out of that one.  Do the maths, how large in memory is a 4k screen buffer at 32bit depth?  In fact, write that number down and use it as your measuring stick.  In fact go look at OS's that don't have a display at all and see how they consume RAM.

2.8Gb "used".  This is memory which has been allocated and commited, aka, actually accessed and consumed by an application.

3840 * 2160 * 32 bits is only 265 megabits, about 33 megabytes. If you're seeing 2.2 gigabytes used, it's probably because your application is loading lots of libraries, shaders and/or textures, not because it needs to buffer 66 frames at a time.
 
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Offline kite31

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #87 on: August 27, 2026, 12:54:07 am »
Sorry about that, I saw the linear recency of the post without paying attention to the date. The point stands though, that smaller models are both capable and still in a phase of improvement. Will Muse/Glimmer fit on your system?
 

Online brucehoult

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #88 on: August 27, 2026, 04:41:20 am »
Apparently the human brain uses about 20W.

My SpacemiT K3 board uses 14W when running gemma-4-26B-A4B-it-QAT-Q4_0.gguf and can solve many kinds of problems and write or review or bugfind in code faster than I can.
How many gigawatts did it take to train Gemma 4?

That fails dimensional analysis.

And I don't care, it didn't cost me anything. Or at minimum is a sunk cost to society whether I use it myself or not.

Quote
Also, how many terawatt-hours would it take to learn to ride a bicycle, something a typical 5-year-old learns in under an hour?

Probably not a lot if, like the 5 year old, it's starting from already being able to walk around and analyse the terrain and obstacles.

Balancing is not much of a trick. Simple angle and rate of change stuff.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #89 on: August 27, 2026, 06:05:50 am »
Also, how many terawatt-hours would it take to learn to ride a bicycle, something a typical 5-year-old learns in under an hour?

It's a distorted comparison. 5-year-old learning to ride a bike learned it (all the body coordination needed to do it) during 5 years of their life, plus millions of years of evolution in our brain. So you are comparing within-context work vs. the whole training of the model.

For the limited sense of "ignore the pre-existing work, only look at the immediate skill" you chose to use for the human, AI wins again. It learns to do a new skill within the context, without touching the neurons in seconds. The comparison is revealing: note that human neurons also can't build new connections that fast. The connections for the bike thing were built during the 5 years + millions of years. During the hour, the kid is just figuring out how to use these connections - just like what AI does when you give it a novel problem to solve.

It didn't happen at age 3 because the "model" was not trained enough at that point (it was a "dumber model").

This is exactly why we use AI as a research/investigation/support agent, it figures out new things (not appearing in any training data; our special human design whims) that take days to teach to human operators, in minutes. It is absolutely amazing what it can figure out.

So for both the pre-requisite training (millions of years vs. some years), and the immediate skill adaption (an hour at tens of watts vs. a few seconds at hundreds of watts), AI wins in efficiency.

I'm not saying it's omnipotent, far from it; it lacks some sort of deep intuition to take over everything (the magical AGI), but for the wide tasks it can do it ha surpassed the learning efficiency of humans long ago. Maybe this is also its achilles heel: custom project-specific learning happens only within their "working memory". Attempts to make the "neurons" learn per customer have not been successful yet, so that part is "emulated" - it's basically one fixed personality chosen by the few large companies who can train these models; user hands it a huge stack of empty Post-it notes where they write down everything they need to remember, never actually remember anything, but have superhuman skills to read those 1000 post-it notes in 2 seconds. This is both a strength and a weakness.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2026, 06:17:21 am by Siwastaja »
 

Offline vad

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #90 on: August 27, 2026, 09:47:39 am »
How many gigawatts did it take to train Gemma 4?

That fails dimensional analysis.
Not really. Power is a perfectly meaningful quantity if you also care about finishing the training sometime before the heat death of the Universe.

But fine, for dimensional purity: how many GWh did it take to train Gemma 4?
 

Offline vad

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #91 on: August 27, 2026, 09:53:53 am »
Also, how many terawatt-hours would it take to learn to ride a bicycle, something a typical 5-year-old learns in under an hour?

It's a distorted comparison. 5-year-old learning to ride a bike learned it (all the body coordination needed to do it) during 5 years of their life, plus millions of years of evolution in our brain. So you are comparing within-context work vs. the whole training of the model.

Fair. But if the kid gets billed for millions of years of multicellular evolution, Gemma should probably inherit the energy bill for evolving its engineers, and everyone who wrote the stuff in its training data.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #92 on: August 27, 2026, 10:12:18 am »
Fair. But if the kid gets billed for millions of years of multicellular evolution, Gemma should probably inherit the energy bill for evolving its engineers, and everyone who wrote the stuff in its training data.

I haven't received my bill for my millions of years of multicellural evolution yet. If that is charged from my credit card, that will be a much bigger problem than Anthropic's next $200  :phew:
 

Offline vad

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #93 on: August 27, 2026, 10:19:08 am »
I'm not saying it's omnipotent, far from it; it lacks some sort of deep intuition to take over everything (the magical AGI), but for the wide tasks it can do it ha surpassed the learning efficiency of humans long ago.

I’ve been absent from this forum for nearly a year (kind of logged off without a public announcement), and man, what a huge difference a year makes. A year ago, fellow users were mocking Claude Code as an inefficient toy that no serious software engineering company should even consider, citing some idiotic research. Today, we are discussing whether LLMs have surpassed humans in learning efficiency.

I’m much closer to your position here than to last year’s Claude skeptics. Yet I still don’t agree that learning through backpropagation is anywhere near as energy-efficient as learning in a child’s brain.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #94 on: August 27, 2026, 11:22:35 am »
I’ve been absent from this forum for nearly a year (kind of logged off without a public announcement),

So three good choices: leaving, not making a fuss about it, and coming back!

Quote
and man, what a huge difference a year makes. A year ago, fellow users were mocking Claude Code as an inefficient toy that no serious software engineering company should even consider, citing some idiotic research. Today, we are discussing whether LLMs have surpassed humans in learning efficiency.

I was mocking it hard. I mostly believed the "stochastic parrot" or "perfect pretender" theory. Until I tried. Using it in actually complex tasks which require real reasoning and creative problem solving immediately demonstrates the capabilities. It is intelligence, not a toy.

Then again - to be fair, a year ago usable agentic software development was at its infancy. What Linus Torvalds and others have noted is true: something "suddenly happened" at the start of this year: AI slop changed to high-quality contributions almost overnight.

A year ago, slop to real work ratio was still bad, and early users of Claude Code, including Anthropic itself, say it required a lot of babysitting through every step. Claude Code research preview 1.5 years ago - unusable for autonomous real work. That's not a long time.

So it's understandable people didn't believe it would become better. People believed the limitations are fundamental, in structure; so that better training and larger models can't fix it. And yet we were wrong. Better training and larger models fixed it. It's quite ironical how small the harness role has ended up being. Even Claude Code experimented with nice fancy AI-compatible vector memory models but ended up just giving the model access to the user's shell (to run the usual programs everyone has installed) and write plain-text notes in a plain directory. How boringly simple.

So my mockery was just maybe half a year out-of-date, not much more. Plus wrong prediction that it wouldn't get better. For the AI to have value to me, it has to really work. I don't want to play around with tech demos. But now it does really work. I could/should have jumped into the bandwagon max 6 months earlier, but that's the extent of the damage from my stubbornness. But I own an apology and thank you to the fanboys and early adopters whose belief kept the train going.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2026, 11:25:37 am by Siwastaja »
 

Offline paulca

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #95 on: August 27, 2026, 01:05:00 pm »
Also, how many terawatt-hours would it take to learn to ride a bicycle, something a typical 5-year-old learns in under an hour?

Interesting choice "riding a bike", because if you ask that 5 yo, or ask them again at 50yo.  They still wont be able to tell you "how" they ride the bike.  They will try but simple experiments will prove them wrong.  Its one of those skills that "you I think therefore I am" never really learn, but your motor-cortext and other hardware systems don't blink.
"What could possibly go wrong?"
Current Open Projects:  68000 Self Build computer + OS.
 

Offline vad

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #96 on: August 27, 2026, 01:53:47 pm »
Also, how many terawatt-hours would it take to learn to ride a bicycle, something a typical 5-year-old learns in under an hour?

Interesting choice "riding a bike", because if you ask that 5 yo, or ask them again at 50yo.  They still wont be able to tell you "how" they ride the bike.  They will try but simple experiments will prove them wrong.  Its one of those skills that "you I think therefore I am" never really learn, but your motor-cortext and other hardware systems don't blink.

It’s still a function that requires control by the central nervous system. We just take that for granted. Getting a Boston Dynamics robot to ride an arbitrary kid’s bike from point A to point B would probably require some rather serious fine-tuning of Gemma 4 26B-A4B IT, not exactly something you’d do with a 20W power budget.

And even after all that, I doubt the resulting model would be small enough to run on the reference 20W inference hardware.
 

Offline tszaboo

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #97 on: August 27, 2026, 02:26:22 pm »
Also, how many terawatt-hours would it take to learn to ride a bicycle, something a typical 5-year-old learns in under an hour?

Interesting choice "riding a bike", because if you ask that 5 yo, or ask them again at 50yo.  They still wont be able to tell you "how" they ride the bike.  They will try but simple experiments will prove them wrong.  Its one of those skills that "you I think therefore I am" never really learn, but your motor-cortext and other hardware systems don't blink.

It’s still a function that requires control by the central nervous system. We just take that for granted. Getting a Boston Dynamics robot to ride an arbitrary kid’s bike from point A to point B would probably require some rather serious fine-tuning of Gemma 4 26B-A4B IT, not exactly something you’d do with a 20W power budget.

And even after all that, I doubt the resulting model would be small enough to run on the reference 20W inference hardware.
I don't know why you would want to run something, which is a reflex in humans, in a language model. You don't think about angles and commands when you ride a bike. Similarly a language model, is not the right way to do these.
But then I'm already at the point in my mind, where preemptively nuking datacenters right about now, probably would be a good idea.
 

Offline vad

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #98 on: August 27, 2026, 02:43:41 pm »
I don't know why you would want to run something, which is a reflex in humans, in a language model. You don't think about angles and commands when you ride a bike. Similarly a language model, is not the right way to do these.
But then I'm already at the point in my mind, where preemptively nuking datacenters right about now, probably would be a good idea.

Fair. But then I don’t understand why you’d want a human to stare at ARM assembly and figure out what it will print, or have that human compete with a dumb Gemma 4 model that has seen a zillion lines of ARM assembly during training, while at the same time refusing to let the same LLM compete with a 50-year-old who has thousands of hours of bike-riding experience.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: AI destroying economic system
« Reply #99 on: August 27, 2026, 02:49:14 pm »
I don't know why you would want to run something, which is a reflex in humans, in a language model. You don't think about angles and commands when you ride a bike. Similarly a language model, is not the right way to do these.

Correct, simulating physics "in LLM" is not only hugely inefficient but also inaccurate. But you sure can use a language model to develop the required math, and even the hardware to perform it efficiently. You can ask it to design a self-balancing robot using op-amps and it will succeed today.

The line of what "LLM can do" has been blurred by the now-builtin capability of LLM of running code. Even if you run some web AI chat interface, it actually runs a small virtual machine with python etc. installed, writes code and runs it to close the efficiency/sensibility gap.

It can do the "bicycle riding" math because the training data includes what we know about sensory systems and muscles, and on the other hand, existing electronic equivalents like MEMS IMUs and servomotors. Language is used in that thinking part, but it doesn't need to run the actual simulation in real-time.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2026, 02:51:51 pm by Siwastaja »
 


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