You think hardware will get -cheaper-? I think the exact opposite. TSMC is booking up to 2028 right now.
I believe it will - eventually. 2027 is of course optimistic. I wouldn't be too pessimistic, either, no one can predict the market dynamics of 2028. While AI is a significant change, significant supply vs. demand balance disruptions have happened before, and they always settle in 2-3 years.
But, ultimately, I don't think it's the local AI's time yet - capability gap is real, and the fast development keeps that gap open, hardware is temporarily (whether it's 3 or 4 or 5 years, it eventually is temporary anyway) very expensive. Local AI is a desirable direction, sure, but for now we are "stuck" with choosing between modern-day AI, a half-a-year behind Chinese pirated copy of it ran on a $200k local hardware (or in questionable datacenters - the worst option in my mind), or a smaller, simpler model limited to certain types of short, less autonomous mechanical tasks ran on a $5-10k local hardware.
Things could be different in 2 years. Maybe the race to AGI and singularity is a bubble which bursts. Maybe there is a fundamental capability limit to what LLMs can do and maybe the state-of-the-art is close to that after all. Maybe the whole market crashes and "frontier" research is just efficiency research. Maybe Fable 5.5 or GPT 6.5 is similar in capabilities but double the speed and half the RAM, and maybe Chinese copy those too, and maybe you can run
that on a then-$50k machine, who knows. Maybe not that many are interested, maybe RAM is produced in excess again and sold dirt cheap. Not likely, but entirely possible.