Re: Reply #145
Electricity has it's place. As example, getting natural gas to all the stoves in a hi-rise apartment building is monumental more difficult then amps going up. It's also less dangerous to not have natural gas pipes and tethers in every apartment in such building.
Everything electric is simply not feasible for some reasons.
Oddly, adding explosive & toxic gases into homes is real. Look at where AC 'freon' is moving to. It was R22 forever, then morphed over to other lower greenhouse impact like 410a (lower GWP), but now all that is being migrated to even lower GWP gases, which makes them more dangerous to the local people. If only the push was for better equipment, etc. R22 btw is more efficient than lots of other gases when ambient is above 100F.
I have not yet even look at the efficiency profile of these newer gases, could be way less just so they can lower GWP, but witut any regard as to how the electric needed is generated w/o offsetting the GWP savings from the new gases.
Mobile gear that carries batteries does appear to be the dominant application for batteries. Having a supercap 9v batt for my smoke detector would be the end of replacing the "battery" for detectors that have util power and the batt is just backup. It's year 2026 and the detectors (the wired ones) don't all come with a small Li-ion pack for bkup reasons?
Vehicles need ample kWh to be useful. To help on supply side I can see where a util can store power from solar and use that to help offset the demand that comes at night, but there still is a transmission issue that needs to be solved.
Example, util rund 1GW solar for 8hrs and captures that into local storage (batts, other). It;s the PowerWall concept. Then at night the util uses that at night when demand from recharging vehicles comes online. 1Gw for 8hr is 28.8B kJ. That enough to completey recharge 133,333 60kWh Li-ion batts. If the batts are doing the 50%-100% charge, then you can dbl it to 266,000 vehicles. Sounds all good and dandy, but can such 1GW solar/batt plant scale in numbers to be able to handle 1.14B conversions from gasoline/diesel to battery? Maybe, you would need approx 5000 such util systems just to cover existing vehicle numbers. Util power also needs to scale because it's estimated around 2.5B vehicles will be out there by 2025, hence util must scale up by 200% by 2050 if it were able to handle the the 1.14B of today.
I see obvious major hurdles that says this stuff simply cannot scale. Now the question becomes, does it need to? Why go after everything, probably best to just offset fossil fuels with solar and nuke power to lower the fossil fuels use down to a level that can be managed. This is more of a plausible scenario.
I think the science is well understood and should be used by real scientists to figure out the solution, vs stupid decision by dumb idiot govt leaders and activists.
I do believe Donut and Chery and anyone else who does R&D in graphene caps, HFCEV, fusion reactors, are doing so in leading-tech manner, this stuff is the future. But it has to come in natural progression.
Solar is interesting. Many years ago 1st Solar was creating product that was getting almost 50% more efficient every 5yrs or so. Not sure where they are at today but there's always a limiting barrier to overcome to get more, but the Sun is free energy, we just need to learn how to capture and use it.
In reality, humans have just about 2.1B years on Earth if they do not destroy themselves completely, or Earth gets hit with another huge rock impact. The Earth is totally gone in about 4.3B years from now. Time is ticking. The probability of self destruction or big rock is actually rather high. The clock still runs.
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