Hyperloop's not dead

[Psi]

I think Hyperloop, maglev, etc., are all solutions in search of a problem.

Look at worldwide rail systems: the big successful ones are all traditional steel wheel on steel rail. Shinkansen. TGV. ICE. All those.

That other stuff is just George Jetson techno-fantasy.

Maglev seems to work well in some countries and solves the issue of getting people into the city from further away than would ever be possible without it. So it seems to be a valid technology and transport system to me.

Lumping Maglev with Hyperloop doesnt make sense to me.

[Analog Kid]

Maglev seems to work well in some countries and solves the issue of getting people into the city from further away than would ever be possible without it.

But that's just not so, at least not the part of your comment that I bolded.

Conventional steel-wheel-on-steel-rail technology is proven, and exists worldwide to solve just the problem you posed.

No need for pie-in-the-sky technology here.

[racemaniac]

It's kind of creepy and if we explained what Musk routinely does but changed the name/company most would call them a conman or criminal. It's weird how some peoples values can change so drastically on a whim.

People expect a company to behave like a company, looking for profits under every corner and only as honest as they need to be.  If you hear a company did something a bit dodgy but not technically against the law, or borderline, everyone sort of shrugs because they kind of expect companies to do that.  It's not a good thing to be clear, but it's typical so 99% of people tend to not bitch about it.

But. As soon as the company has a human face instead of a just a faceless company/brand-name then suddenly people expect the company to behave like a nice person. If that person (company) then does anything a bit ethically questionable people absolutely lose their shit.

It creates a short-circuit in peoples brains where they hold a company with a human face up to a higher standard that a faceless company.  It's to be expected but isn't a fair way to judge/compare the evilness of different companies.

Personally, I am 100% sure that if we magically knew what all companies were doing behind closed doors and ranked them from -100% (evil) to +100% (good), then Elon's companies would all be well past +20%. There would be so many well known companies and CEOs/executives that everyone would be calling for a lynch mob for.

There for sure are companies doing worse things, but it's all far less visiible than elon's bullshit.
I think the main issue with Elon for many is just his blatant lies (and the press just reporting them all without any critical thought....).

He's been promising level 5 self driving every year for the past decade. His rockets should be on mars by now, preferably with people, there should be a roadster, a truck, we'd have all kinds of features that never happened, the cybertruck would be this indestructible beast that can float like a boat, now it's a fragile mess where they can void your warranty if it gets too wet from a car wash. and if you tow heavy things too often, the back falls off since it's just cast aluminum that has metal fatigue, unlike every other truck that uses steel there for obvious reasons. Just like the other AI bullshitters, his AI will do everything soon, etc... etc... etc...

And he just keeps lying and lying and lying. Now he's claiming before the end of the year grok AI will generate binaries (saying that the code step would be skipped, and the AI output is directly a binary, otherwise it's nothing revolutionary, it's just having your AI generate something that compiles, which is often a challenge, but in the end they sometimes do already get there if the project isn't too big). Now he's promising his moon base in the near future etc.... (and has given up on all his mars promises, who would've seen it coming)

Are you surprised people get fed up with the bullshit, and the entire world acting as if he's a visionary genius, and the press just going along?

And are there companies and people doing worse things? For sure, but they're usually not shouting it to the press every change they get.

[PlainName]

A bit off-topic but this kind of view is getting popular and threatening impartiality.

(and the press just reporting them all without any critical thought....)

Isn't that what the press is meant to do? They are not reporting that such-and-such will be here next year, but the fact that so-and-so says that. The press often has opinion sections where things may be discussed and, for instance, that this is just another of the 20,000 and counting lies he's told this year alone. Or that we're unlikely to have a Dyson sphere next year because... whatever. Mistaking the factual reports for opinion (and vice versa) is the majority of what's stiffing the news services and letting the propaganda programmes get, uh, a free press.

[racemaniac]

A bit off-topic but this kind of view is getting popular and threatening impartiality.

(and the press just reporting them all without any critical thought....)

Isn't that what the press is meant to do? They are not reporting that such-and-such will be here next year, but the fact that so-and-so says that. The press often has opinion sections where things may be discussed and, for instance, that this is just another of the 20,000 and counting lies he's told this year alone. Or that we're unlikely to have a Dyson sphere next year because... whatever. Mistaking the factual reports for opinion (and vice versa) is the majority of what's stiffing the news services and letting the propaganda programmes get, uh, a free press.

But the issue you're afraid of is already happening on massive scale, funded by billionaires like Elon, and instead we get newspapers full of clickbait like Elon's next lies, and misinterpretations of scientific studies and ....
And i honestly don't see the news worth of whatever guys like Elon spout. It's just empty clickbait. Should they also do articles on the next Mr Beast video, as the nonsense he's up to is equally newsworthy (aka not at all).

I don't see how being neutral means you have to report stupid clickbait... Reporting such stuff is used to cover up for not being neutral, you still have a nicely filled newspaper while you're strategically underreporting some real news. But wouldn't you rather read up on Elon's moon base that's really gonna happen this time?

[Psi]

And he just keeps lying and lying and lying. Now he's claiming before the end of the year grok AI will generate binaries (saying that the code step would be skipped, and the AI output is directly a binary, otherwise it's nothing revolutionary, it's just having your AI generate something that compiles, which is often a challenge, but in the end they sometimes do already get there if the project isn't too big). Now he's promising his moon base in the near future etc.... (and has given up on all his mars promises, who would've seen it coming)

I don't consider that's lying, it's trying to predict where things could be in x months/years based on expected progress and growth. It's his opinion or best guess rather than a company wide promise.  It's important how/where he says something.
If he's talking at an official Tesla event then what he says is more official, but that's not the same as a random comment on X or a random interview with someone on YouTube where he's giving his opinion.

Maybe some people think he's intentionally giving short timeframes that he knows he wont meet just to raise the share prices or generate news. I don't subscribe to that. I think he's just doing the math and assuming best case scenario for all factors because that's how his brain works. Always assume best case. You see this in his thinking all the time. eg, Always assume the lowest possible price for something is the raw materials. etc...

[racemaniac]

And he just keeps lying and lying and lying. Now he's claiming before the end of the year grok AI will generate binaries (saying that the code step would be skipped, and the AI output is directly a binary, otherwise it's nothing revolutionary, it's just having your AI generate something that compiles, which is often a challenge, but in the end they sometimes do already get there if the project isn't too big). Now he's promising his moon base in the near future etc.... (and has given up on all his mars promises, who would've seen it coming)

I don't consider that's lying, it's trying to predict where things could be in x months/years based on expected progress and growth. It's his opinion or best guess rather than a company wide promise.  It's important how/where he says something.
If he's talking at an official Tesla event then what he says is more official, but that's not the same as a random comment on X or a random interview with someone on YouTube where he's giving his opinion.

Maybe some people think he's intentionally giving short timeframes that he knows he wont meet just to raise the share prices or generate news. I don't subscribe to that. I think he's just doing the math and assuming best case scenario for all factors because that's how his brain works. Always assume best case. You see this in his thinking all the time. eg, Always assume the lowest possible price for something is the raw materials. etc...

But he's making those statements confidently at Tesla events, that's indeed the exact issue....

[AVGresponding]

And he just keeps lying and lying and lying. Now he's claiming before the end of the year grok AI will generate binaries (saying that the code step would be skipped, and the AI output is directly a binary, otherwise it's nothing revolutionary, it's just having your AI generate something that compiles, which is often a challenge, but in the end they sometimes do already get there if the project isn't too big). Now he's promising his moon base in the near future etc.... (and has given up on all his mars promises, who would've seen it coming)

I don't consider that's lying, it's trying to predict where things could be in x months/years based on expected progress and growth. It's his opinion or best guess rather than a company wide promise.  It's important how/where he says something.
If he's talking at an official Tesla event then what he says is more official, but that's not the same as a random comment on X or a random interview with someone on YouTube where he's giving his opinion.

Maybe some people think he's intentionally giving short timeframes that he knows he wont meet just to raise the share prices or generate news. I don't subscribe to that. I think he's just doing the math and assuming best case scenario for all factors because that's how his brain works. Always assume best case. You see this in his thinking all the time. eg, Always assume the lowest possible price for something is the raw materials. etc...

But he's making those statements confidently at Tesla events, that's indeed the exact issue....

It's only lying if you can't afford to keep some of the world's top legal firms on retainer

[Psi]

But he's making those statements confidently at Tesla events, that's indeed the exact issue....

Which event statements are you referring too, the clips I've seen people show as proof of lying are usually something stupid that he said in some random interview or on twitter/X, or something clipped out of context.

[racemaniac]

But he's making those statements confidently at Tesla events, that's indeed the exact issue....

Which event statements are you referring too, the clips I've seen people show as proof of lying are usually something stupid that he said in some random interview or on twitter/X, or something clipped out of context.

Let's start with the obvious ones:

"Elon Musk unveiled the next-generation Tesla Roadster in November 2017 as a surprise "one more thing" during the Tesla Semi truck event. Marketed as the fastest production car ever, the prototype boasted 0-60 mph in 1.9 seconds, a 620-mile range"

... you seeing any roadsters & semi trucks? You think such a roadster would have been possible with the battery technology of 2017? People payed deposits for that.

Or how about all the cybertruck boasting when releasing that. With the obvious immediate self debunk when throwing a ball softly at it shattered the bullet proof windows of this claimed "tank"....
Or the eternal self driving claims or ...

How about you actually look at older tesla events, see what he promised, and line it up with what actually happened?

[PlainName]

Marketed as the fastest production car ever, the prototype boasted 0-60 mph in 1.9 seconds, a 620-mile range

Two things there:

1. If he was saying that's what we're going to to get then he's not yet lied unless he also said it would be by, say, 2026. Maybe it will turn up in 2036 and he would then not be wrong.

2. Did the prototype actually achieve all that - 0-60 in <2s and >600 mile range? That's a very definite thing and either it did, so he is OK, or it was, let's say, 'exaggerated' and he fibbed.

[wraper]

... you seeing any roadsters & semi trucks? You think such a roadster would have been possible with the battery technology of 2017? People payed deposits for that.

Tesla semi trucks were used in limited numbers by some companies for years and mass production starts this year once factory is finished, it's already almost completed. As of Roadster 2, yes it was heavily delayed. Although Model S plaid almost reached acceleration spec claimed for roadster back then. Deposits are refundable. Updated Roadster 2 should be revealed next month, it's supposed to be very different to what was shown in 2017.

[Psi]

A lie must be knowingly false when you said it, but priorities change. It can't become a lie after the fact because the timeline keeps slipping.  If I say I'm coming for dinner tomorrow, and I don't turn up, that doesnt automatically make what I said a lie. It either was or was not a lie in the moment that I said it.

You can say Elon is utterly atrocious at timeline estimation and that would be totally fair.
You could say people got mislead as to when something was going to be available, and that would be fair.
But there's no way to really know if it was a lie or not because the only proof is in his head. So calling it a lie is really pointless.


This is the main reason why companies usually do not announce things publicly until they are rolling off the production line.
Coming up with an estimated delivery timeframe when you're only in the design phase is really inaccurate.
But personally I would much rather live in a world were all companies do announce what their plans are for when something might be available to purchase, even if the accuracy is terrible, i'd rather have the information and choose what to do with it myself.

[racemaniac]

It's clear you guys are still believing all the bullshit.
Look it up for yourselves what exactly he promised at actual events and to actual shareholders regarding those items.

And yes, timelines are hard. If after 10 years you're still making the same equally bad predictions, it's no longer a mistake, it's on purpose. He had over a decade to learn that his timeline estimates are bullshit, and he just keeps doing the same. I call that lying yes. In the beginning you can chalk it up to inexperience, and honest mistakes. After a decade that imo makes no sense.

[Psi]

It's clear you guys are still believing all the bullshit.
Look it up for yourselves what exactly he promised at actual events and to actual shareholders regarding those items.

And yes, timelines are hard. If after 10 years you're still making the same equally bad predictions, it's no longer a mistake, it's on purpose. He had over a decade to learn that his timeline estimates are bullshit, and he just keeps doing the same. I call that lying yes. In the beginning you can chalk it up to inexperience, and honest mistakes. After a decade that imo makes no sense.

Timeline estimates are estimates.
I would never consider an inaccurate estimate as lying, not matter how often it happens.

[racemaniac]

It's clear you guys are still believing all the bullshit.
Look it up for yourselves what exactly he promised at actual events and to actual shareholders regarding those items.

And yes, timelines are hard. If after 10 years you're still making the same equally bad predictions, it's no longer a mistake, it's on purpose. He had over a decade to learn that his timeline estimates are bullshit, and he just keeps doing the same. I call that lying yes. In the beginning you can chalk it up to inexperience, and honest mistakes. After a decade that imo makes no sense.

Timeline estimates are estimates.
I would never consider an inaccurate estimate as lying, not matter how often it happens.

If he'd sell them as estimates, i could kind of agree, though even then he's going too far imo. But he often just states it as fact, so yeah...

[wraper]

You can blame Elon all day long for inaccurate time estimates. I still wait for Boeing to announce when they're going deliver operational Starliner CST-100 for 2x the money NASA paid SpaceX for Crew Dragon. Or California to finish building a single mile of high speed rail they already wasted tens of billions on, if we compare with Boring company.

[SteveThackery]

Timeline estimates are estimates.
I would never consider an inaccurate estimate as lying, not matter how often it happens.

Have you heard of the expression "plan to please"? It means planning the project and estimating completion in 15 months. And then the customer says, "That's no good, I must have it in a year!" And then what happens? You squeeze up the tasks until your Gantt chart just fits into 12 months. Customer is pleased. Usually this is under pressure from your own boss, who is more interested in corporate politics.

My point is pretty much every timeline estimate is subject to pressures from various sources before it ever sees the light of day. I guess that might not make them lies, exactly, but they aren't really honest.

[SteveThackery]

Timeline estimates are estimates.
I would never consider an inaccurate estimate as lying, not matter how often it happens.

Have you heard of the expression "plan to please"? It means planning the project and estimating completion in 15 months. And then the customer says, "That's no good, I must have it in a year!" And then what happens? You squeeze up the tasks until your Gantt chart just fits into 12 months. Customer is pleased. Usually this is under pressure from your own boss, who is more interested in corporate politics.  Often it comes from the accounts people, who seem to get hysterical whenever a project extends through the end of the financial year.

My point is pretty much every timeline estimate is subject to pressures from various sources before it ever sees the light of day. I guess that might not make them lies, exactly, but they aren't really honest.

[Electrodynamic]

It's clear you guys are still believing all the bullshit.
Look it up for yourselves what exactly he promised at actual events and to actual shareholders regarding those items.

And yes, timelines are hard. If after 10 years you're still making the same equally bad predictions, it's no longer a mistake, it's on purpose. He had over a decade to learn that his timeline estimates are bullshit, and he just keeps doing the same. I call that lying yes. In the beginning you can chalk it up to inexperience, and honest mistakes. After a decade that imo makes no sense.

Timeline estimates are estimates.
I would never consider an inaccurate estimate as lying, not matter how often it happens.

When a company purposely pitches a product they do not posses making false and misleading statements this is a fraud and stock price manipulation not an "estimate".

I think it's comical how the musk followers would accuse any other company of a hoax or pseudoscience but when their savior elon musk does the same thing it's 5D chess. Why the blatant hypocrisy?.

I think it's obvious why so many champion musk when he lies and manipulates stock prices. It's a pyramid scheme and the musk followers buy stock early, make a killing then sell out before the stock craters. They are literally in on the scam which relates to the notion of moral equivalence or "if were all guilty nobody is guilty". Apparently lies, stock manipulation and greed are normal and good. George Orwell would be pleased.

[Psi]

Have you heard of the expression "plan to please"? It means planning the project and estimating completion in 15 months. And then the customer says, "That's no good, I must have it in a year!" And then what happens? You squeeze up the tasks until your Gantt chart just fits into 12 months. Customer is pleased. Usually this is under pressure from your own boss, who is more interested in corporate politics.

My point is pretty much every timeline estimate is subject to pressures from various sources before it ever sees the light of day. I guess that might not make them lies, exactly, but they aren't really honest.

Yep, I agree, but there's no law requiring honesty, honesty doesnt exist in business.
- The whole advertising industry exists to be dishonest about a product to make it seem better than it actually is. eg, the photos on food packaging is dishonest, in never looks that good.
- Companies don't tell their customers what their profit will be on a purchase, or what their BOM cost is.

It's simply what is legal, or more precisely, what laws does the company actually have to obey due to the benefit to consequences ratio.
Don't get me wrong, it shouldn't be this way, but it is.

So any anger should be directed at the system, or at lack of investigation and enforcement and inefficient or non-existent laws. Rather than being at a specific high profile company doing what the entire industry does. 
I see it as a form of discrimination, eg  "We don't like how the system works but we cant do anything about it so we are going to focus the anger on one well known company and all the things they do that we don't like about the system they operate in"

Don't get me wrong, Elon has definitely said stuff that crossed the line.

(Disclaimer: I do not hold any Tesla shares and never have, I have RocketLab and Firefly, but I probably would by Tesla if it dropped a lot.)

[Electrodynamic]

Psi

Yep, I agree, but there's no law requiring honesty, honesty doesnt exist in business.
- The whole advertising industry exists to be dishonest about a product to make it seem better than it actually is. eg, the photos on food packaging is dishonest, in never looks that good.
- Companies don't tell their customers what their profit will be on a purchase, or what their BOM cost is.

It's simply what is legal, or more precisely, what laws does the company actually have to obey due to the benefit to consequences ratio.
Don't get me wrong, it shouldn't be this way, but it is.

We have more than enough laws and what were seeing today is a complete lack of enforcement in some countries.

It's common knowledge that misrepresenting a product for gain or to manipulate the stock price has always been a criminal act. For example,
"it is a crime to misrepresent a product for gain in Canada under the Competition Act, which prohibits false or misleading representations in advertising. Offenders can face significant fines and even imprisonment depending on the severity of the offense".

In Canada this law holds the majority of time unlike the U.S. where misrepresenting the facts seems to be the norm. In my opinion this is why the U.S. seems to be spiraling the drain and headed towards a moral and economic collapse. They just cannot be trusted anymore.

[Psi]

Psi

Yep, I agree, but there's no law requiring honesty, honesty doesnt exist in business.
- The whole advertising industry exists to be dishonest about a product to make it seem better than it actually is. eg, the photos on food packaging is dishonest, in never looks that good.
- Companies don't tell their customers what their profit will be on a purchase, or what their BOM cost is.

It's simply what is legal, or more precisely, what laws does the company actually have to obey due to the benefit to consequences ratio.
Don't get me wrong, it shouldn't be this way, but it is.

We have more than enough laws and what were seeing today is a complete lack of enforcement in some countries.

Thanks Yes, 100% agreed, enforcement is a huge problem.
Doing proper investigating and enforcement of existing laws equally for everyone would solve a huge amount of problems.
I kind of lumped that in under inefficiency but it should definitely have been stated as its so important. 

There's definitely a lack of some laws too, and too many pointless ones, but yes, enforcement is critical.
I'd like to see a law that connects the minimum wage a company can pay to the amount of profits they make, or a combination of that and revenue (to account for huge companies that don't make a profit on paper).
The larger you get as a company the more you should be paying your lowest level workers.

[PlainName]

The larger you get as a company the more you should be paying your lowest level workers.

Why? If you hire a plumber to fix your loo, should he charge more because you're rich? Should you pay more for your own-brand instant coffee because you're not on benefits?

[Psi]

The larger you get as a company the more you should be paying your lowest level workers.

Why? If you hire a plumber to fix your loo, should he charge more because you're rich? Should you pay more for your own-brand instant coffee because you're not on benefits?

That's not what I said.  I'm talking about companies paying their workers not charging their customers.
I know what you are trying to get at, but it's not the same. A company is not the same as a consumer, different laws should apply.

A person has the right to be treated fairly, a company does not. A company is a structure the law allows to exist to benefit society.

Companies have proven they can't be trusted to pay their lowest workers fairly. Companies have an incentive to grow and consume all the market and all the money. To pay workers as little as possible and charge customers as much as possible. So they obviously need to be controlled to a level that benefits society overall.

Not saying my idea is perfect or should be implemented, it just one idea.