When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[nctnico]

In the US I think ir’s Toyota that is selling a H2 powered. Car and offering 3 yers of free fuel.  With the technology we have we know Hydrogen powered cars can’t compete with ICE or EVs.  And that’s before we start talking about re-fueling infrastructure.  I posted a link to a well researched YouTube video on Hydrogen cars.  Look back in previous posts.  As I recall the bottom line with Hydrogen cars is they require way too much energy to produce, compress, store and transport the fuel then is availed to power the car.  The other issue is fuel tank size.  If an ICE car can get 350 miles from a petro fuel tank, a Hydrogen powered car would need a tank 4-5 times the size to travel same miles. 

Until we find a way to break the laws of Physics and Thermodynamics Hydrogen cars will never be viable solution.

You mean that video riddled with errors? I'm pretty sure the reality is different. A Hydrogen filling station costs around 1.5 million euro's each to build. In Germany alone they are going to install 1000 of these stations. The UK and France are following the same path. That means the total investment for Hydrogen stations is going to be several billions of euros spread over only three countries alone. These kind of investments are not put into a technology which has no future at all. For my usage a Hydrogen car would make much more sense compared to an EV (which I can't charge at home and which takes too long to charge at a charging station).

You are also mistaken about the Hydrogen tank size. In the Toyota Mirai it has the same volume as a regular fuel tank. Don't forget the energy density of Hydrogen is several times higher compared to gasoline.

[coppice]

You mean that video riddled with errors? I'm pretty sure the reality is different. A Hydrogen filling station costs around 1.5 million euro's each to build. In Germany alone they are going to install 1000 of these stations. The UK and France are following the same path.

There are a few hydrogen filling points in the UK. You can find videos on YouTube about some of them, mostly showing them to be out of commission. There are some maps on the web showing plans to add a few points, but not enough to make it viable for most people to operate a hydrogen car. It looks like a number of early stations have now been abandoned. I'm not clear of they were ever intended to be more than experiments. Most people are 100km or more from the nearest filling point. This might be a chicken and egg problem - no filling stations means no cars. no cars means no filling stations - but efficiency and cost seem to be big hurdles. Electric cars have a comparatively easy time achieving significant penetration, because home charging is possible.

[nctnico]

Electric cars have a comparatively easy time achieving significant penetration, because home charging is possible.

But that will stagnate once the market with people who can charge at home AND are willing to pay extra for an EV is saturated.

[DougSpindler]

You mean that video riddled with errors? I'm pretty sure the reality is different.

First you clamin the video is riddleed with errors.  THen you say you pretty sure reality is different.  WHat kind of BS is this.  Where's your science to show the vide has errors.  Or are you one of those people whod doeswn't use scince and will say God told you?

Will my God told me your God is wrong. 

Evidnce please.

[free_electron]

@free_electron: that would add one hour each day to a typical trip we make With a car which costs 20 times more  I rather spend that time in bed or looking at something interesting instead of a gas station.

you mean each-way or each day ?

Keep in mind that, in roughly 30 minutes you get 70 to 80% of the pack. Chargers are spaced conveniently roughly 50 to 100km apart on a mesh grid. you never really need to wait the full time. Charge it the night before a long trip ( while you are sleeping) then just do short push charging in the 15 to 20 minute range. After 2 to three hours of driving i like to get out of the car and get a cup of coffee , go for a snack or visit the restroom. I've done many big trips ( 7 to 8 hour drives ) without charge anxiety or time loss. You set the destination and the car tells you where to pull off to charge and how long.

you are right that it may not work for people living in apartments/ without garage/driveway due to the inability to find a charge plug. But the world is larger than people in that situation. Here ( in California) many counties have enacted laws that make it mandatory for any new construction or renovation to implement a 240 volt 40 amp circuit specifically for EV's in the garage. Similar laws force builders to pre-install the pipes and wiring for a solar array and inverter. The fuseboxes need the room for the breakers, switchover relays. and many local town now also make solar arrays mandatory for any new residential and commercial construction.

Combine a solar array with a powerpack and you can got totally off-grid.

[DougSpindler]

Combine a solar array with a powerpack and you can got totally off-grid.

Great in theory, until you put it into practice.  In California 99.99% of the people who install solar do so without battery packs.  According to Dave battery packs between loses 40% of there energy to heat.  So for evert 100 kWhr that are used to charge the batteries, you only get 60 back plus a fair amount of heat.

If one is a PG&E customer one would be a fool to have batteries.  PG&E customers can sell excess electricity to PG&E for $0.50 kWhr and then buy that KWhr back for $0.12 later that same day. 

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

If one is a PG&E customer one would be a fool to have batteries.  PG&E customers can sell excess electricity to PG&E for $0.50 kWhr and then buy that KWhr back for $0.12 later that same day.

And that's a scam. At least in Spain. Everybody else paying for your solar power. A scam, yes, a big one.

[free_electron]

Great in theory, until you put it into practice.  In California 99.99% of the people who install solar do so without battery packs.  According to Dave battery packs between loses 40% of there energy to heat.  So for every 100 kWhr that are used to charge the batteries, you only get 60 back plus a fair amount of heat.

The people in Puerto Rico , florida and other hurricane ravaged places beg to differ ... the packs is what keeps them running .... Even the Aussies have a 100 megawatt (128MWh, 100Mw inverter) battery . Kauai , and Samoa run off a gigantic battery pack at night. They have shut down all their diesel generators and the whole island is a solar / wind / battery system.

Oh, and by-the-way. PG&E commisioned a 1.1GWh pack. It needs to sustain 180MW for 6 hours...
As for the 40% heatloss. Check your numbers ...

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/07/california-utility-looks-to-add-gigawatt-hours-of-battery-storage-before-2020/
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/31/the-tesla-grid-controller-debuts-helping-samoa-toward-100-renewable-electricity-goal/
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-is-turning-kauai-into-a-renewable-energy-paradise/
https://www.inverse.com/article/45511-tesla-solar-elon-musk-reveals-the-staggering-scale-of-puerto-rico-projects
https://electrek.co/2018/06/03/tesla-energy-storage-projects-puerto-rico-elon-musk/

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

As for the 40% heatloss. Check your numbers ...

What's a better, closer to reality losses % figure, in your opinion?

[free_electron]

As for the 40% heatloss. Check your numbers ...

What's a better, closer to reality losses % figure, in your opinion?

i don't have any hard numbers , i've never looked into it but :

the packs are passively cooled. So a 40% heat loss is unlikely. They would heat up so much that they would blow up .
You figure out how much you can dissipate in a battery that is mounted on an island where it is 30 degree air temperature, exposed to the sun. how much can you burn off in the cells before they become damaged. it is not going to be anywhere near 40%.

[mtdoc]

1) The 40% number is bullshit and just one of Fact-Free Doug's trolls.
2) It's been refuted in this thread before with both first hand observations and published data.
3) 80-95% charge/discharge efficiency is the reality.

[nctnico]

@free_electron: that would add one hour each day to a typical trip we make With a car which costs 20 times more  I rather spend that time in bed or looking at something interesting instead of a gas station.

you mean each-way or each day ?

Each day on a typical trip.

[DougSpindler]

According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging. 

[coppice]

According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.

Those numbers seem reasonable, if they include the thermal losses in the electronics, as well as the batteries themselves.

[nctnico]

According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.

Those numbers seem reasonable, if they include the thermal losses in the electronics, as well as the batteries themselves.

I strongly doubt these numbers. Maybe worst case at maximum charge & discharge currents with the batteries in a very hot environment. A battery pack isn't worth it anyway (*) and with 40% loss it just doesn't make sense.

* Unless you can charge at a low rate and sell high but that situation isn't going to last forever and even then you'd need to take wear of the batteries into account.

[f4eru]

In Germany alone they are going to install 1000 of these stations.

Ja nee klar. Was für n'en schmarrn!
As soon as France has finished installing 1000 km of solarized roadways, germany will have installed 1000 H2 filling stations.
 

On another note, in 2017, german people bought 3332 Tesla vehicles.
That sould only double in 2019 because the model 3 arrives late.

FCEV vehicles, all brands together have just scored a few tens in all of 2017. And that is heavily subsidized in Germany. Just hopeless.
It's so damn low that the KBA does not even bother to list Hydrogen as a fual source, even if FCEVs are THE most subsidized vehicle now in germany.
https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Umwelt/2017_n_umwelt_dusl.html?nn=652326
it's that bad, really.
 

[nctnico]

In Germany alone they are going to install 1000 of these stations.

Ja nee klar. Was für n'en schmarrn!
As soon as France has finished installing 1000 km of solarized croadways, germany will have installed 1000 H2 filling stations.
 

On another note, in 2017, german people bought 3332 Tesla vehicles.
That sould only double in 2019 because the model 3 arrives late.

And the Dutch people also bought a similar amount of Teslas. Again: Teslas are over 6 times less popular in Germany compared to the Netherlands. These are the numbers. And you may laugh about the Hydrogen filling stations but they seem to pop-up everywhere in Germany since recently so there is some serious money and push behind Hyrdogen. Sure it will take some time to get a dense network but due to better range and faster filling of Hydrogen cars nowhere near the number of electric charging stations are needed to get good coverage.

[coppice]

And you may laugh about the Hydrogen filling stations but they seem to pop-up everywhere in Germany since recently so there is some serious money and push behind Hyrdrogen.

Who is paying for these stations? Is it a government scheme, or private industry?

[nctnico]

And you may laugh about the Hydrogen filling stations but they seem to pop-up everywhere in Germany since recently so there is some serious money and push behind Hyrdrogen.

Who is paying for these stations? Is it a government scheme, or private industry?

AFAIK private industry (Shell, Total and Mercedes are names I see popping up) with a minimal amount of government funding (2 million euros per project in the Netherlands).

[f4eru]

Who is paying for these stations? Is it a government scheme, or private industry?

In Germany, the state subsidizes those station with 60-70%.
So everyone pays, and only a few journalists and specialized firms, or OEM prototypes get to use it.

[nctnico]

Who is paying for these stations? Is it a government scheme, or private industry?

In Germany, the state subsidizes those station with 70%.
So everyone pays, and only a few journalists and specialized firms get to use it.

Maybe but it shows that the people doing the actual math aren't sure at all about EVs being a good alternative for ICE based cars. The Netherlands for example has the most dense EV charging infrastructure in Europe (and maybe the world) but the adoption rate of EVs is still next to nothing.

[f4eru]

the adoption rate of EVs is still next to nothing.

Don't worry. The Model 3 arrives soon. It will double fast, then double again, then double again, then double again, then double again, then double again, then double again soon.

[f4eru]

In Germany, the state subsidizes those station with 70%.

Maybe but it shows that the people doing the actual math aren't sure at all about EVs being a good alternative for ICE based cars.

Not really.
The people in the german government giving free money to OEMs and oil companies to build useless H2 stations don't do the math.
They want to feed their corporate sponsors with the greenwashed money from taxpayers
The companies building the H2 stations only want the free money raining down, so they build the damned things.
The people doing the math are the one buying cars, and they buy litterally 50 000% more Teslas than hydrogen cars in germany today.
Add another zero for BEVs in general vs FCEVs.

[DougSpindler]

According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.

Those numbers seem reasonable, if they include the thermal losses in the electronics, as well as the batteries themselves.

So why does the mtdoc dude keep saying 40% number is bullshit and just one of Fact-Free Doug's trolls? 

Dave has a video blog on the efficiency of charging/discharging batteries and that's his number from his video. 


mtdoc the  80-95% charge/discharge efficiency is the reality you are claiming is what's bullshit.  Try holding a phone while it's being changed and tell me if you can feel it getting warm.  That ain't no 10% heat loss.  Then talking on the phone for 30 mionutes and tell if your phone isn't getting hot.  That ain't no 10% either.

If you are going to challenge Dave's 20% loss due to charging and 20% loss due to discharging tell him he's full of shit and propvide you own imperical evidence.  I trust Dave's testing methodology and numbers than you just saying they are bullshit.  And it appears at least one person thinks Dave's numbers sound about right. 


mtdoc, instead of calling my posts fact-free and Dave's numbers bullshit, why not post the resuts of your tests.  Or is it you are the troll? 

[SiliconWizard]

Just the charging of a Li-ion type battery can't be 95% efficient. The typical charging efficiency of Li-ion batteries is about 90% on average (for good batteries in decent shape, that is, and can be as low as 80%) and if you add the charger's efficiency itself, which will probably be in the order of 90% at best, you're already down to 81%. Those figures sound like reasonable estimates.

As for discharge, I'm sure it depends a lot on the battery itself and use conditions, but an average of 90% looks like a reasonsable (if even optimistic) estimate.
All combined, you're already down to 73%.

Then you will have losses in the power electronics circuitry and  electric motor(s).

It wouldn't seem like an unreasonable estimate to end up at 50% to 60%, at the very best, of overall efficiency for an electric car, taken from charging power to the power delivered at the wheels.