UK forum members, BREXIT?

[Nauris]

Well, if all polish were send home then the employer wouldn't have the choice but employ british.

In that case the employer is likely to move to Poland because they can't find the necessary skilled and motivated employees. The problem is not the amount of people but the level of education and or motivation.

Long time ago UK cars were imported here and we had the saying that when british workers work day ends he takes his wooden club with him and goes sleeping in a cave.

But british industry is already gone and can't move construction workers, burger flippers and such so it is rational for low skill british to try limit immigration as that improves their position.

[G0HZU]

I'll take it a step further and suggest that the major politicians and economists probably don't know the consequences either. At a time when the global economy is making a slow/uncertain/wobbly recovery it seemed reckless to consider a referendum.

Of course the exact loss of GDP is impossible to predict. However, I guess no serious economist would dare to predict a bright future in the short or mid term.
This is no excuse though for not informing at all what leaving the EU would mean. Heck, I feel that every other European was better informed than the typical Brit.

My concern for the UK is that we are an ageing population who aren't as good at manufacturing stuff as we used to be. In my opinion, the leave vote was reinforced by older people who still view the UK (and its future prospects) through rose tinted specs.

Well, really? This is why the industrial production in Britain went down? It's not because the Brits decided to earn their money with financial trickery and didn't invest in modern production processes in the last 50 years?

Just to clarify, I didn't mean to imply we are getting bad at making things just because the population is ageing. Our manufacturing capabilities have been reduced alarmingly for various reasons and on top of this the population has an increasing proportion of old people that will require care/support.

It doesn't look good IMO.

[zapta]

To me limiting immigration looks like result of quite rational thinking.

Not just limiting the numbers but also choosing the ones that bring more merit to your country.

That's the rational thing to do.

[KJDS]

I'll take it a step further and suggest that the major politicians and economists probably don't know the consequences either. At a time when the global economy is making a slow/uncertain/wobbly recovery it seemed reckless to consider a referendum.

Of course the exact loss of GDP is impossible to predict. However, I guess no serious economist would dare to predict a bright future in the short or mid term.
This is no excuse though for not informing at all what leaving the EU would mean. Heck, I feel that every other European was better informed than the typical Brit.

My concern for the UK is that we are an ageing population who aren't as good at manufacturing stuff as we used to be. In my opinion, the leave vote was reinforced by older people who still view the UK (and its future prospects) through rose tinted specs.

Well, really? This is why the industrial production in Britain went down? It's not because the Brits decided to earn their money with financial trickery and didn't invest in modern production processes in the last 50 years?

Just to clarify, I didn't mean to imply we are getting bad at making things just because the population is ageing. Our manufacturing capabilities have been reduced alarmingly for various reasons and on top of this the population has an increasing proportion of old people that will require care/support.

It doesn't look good IMO.

It's not our capability that has been reduced, but our capacity

[Simon]

I'll take it a step further and suggest that the major politicians and economists probably don't know the consequences either. At a time when the global economy is making a slow/uncertain/wobbly recovery it seemed reckless to consider a referendum.

Of course the exact loss of GDP is impossible to predict. However, I guess no serious economist would dare to predict a bright future in the short or mid term.
This is no excuse though for not informing at all what leaving the EU would mean. Heck, I feel that every other European was better informed than the typical Brit.

My concern for the UK is that we are an ageing population who aren't as good at manufacturing stuff as we used to be. In my opinion, the leave vote was reinforced by older people who still view the UK (and its future prospects) through rose tinted specs.

Well, really? This is why the industrial production in Britain went down? It's not because the Brits decided to earn their money with financial trickery and didn't invest in modern production processes in the last 50 years?

Just to clarify, I didn't mean to imply we are getting bad at making things just because the population is ageing. Our manufacturing capabilities have been reduced alarmingly for various reasons and on top of this the population has an increasing proportion of old people that will require care/support.

It doesn't look good IMO.

It's not our capability that has been reduced, but our capacity

No not that either, willingless, ability

[Fraser]

Well I thank all participants in this thread for sharing their thoughts...even MT !

I promised myself I would ponder the situation over the weekend, and try to better understand the implications, until midnight tonight. Tomorrow is a new day and there is absolutely nothing I can do to influence the current situation, so I will not worry about what I cannot change.

Life has a way of working out, it certainly has for me as it appears that I am free of M.E. now after suffering it for 5 years. I have much to be grateful for and will not allow the EU situation to drag my mood down as that solves nothing. Maybe I will rejoin the Diolomatic Corps now that my health has improved. I can maybe make a small difference there.

Be happy in your lives and only worry about what you can influence

Good night all and my best wishes to all of your countries, wherever you are. May you prosper in the years ahead.

Fraser

[Marco]

Not just limiting the numbers but also choosing the ones that bring more merit to your country.

That's the rational thing to do.

Rational yes, but by the common definition of racism, selective immigration is most definitely racist (ie. any mechanism which leads to unequal outcomes between races is racist).

that is not what he said. If you have an unskilled and a skilled polish worker and you choose the skilled over the unskilled that is not racism. To say that you won't take any polish workr because you hate them all is racist. lets at least get basic defenitions correct here please.

[MK14]

Life has a way of working out, it certainly has for me as it appears that I am free of M.E. now after suffering it for 5 years.
Fraser

Congratulations and the best of luck, now that your illness is better!

[zapta]

Life has a way of working out, it certainly has for me as it appears that I am free of M.E. now after suffering it for 5 years.

This explains why you mentioned contacting your ex employer again. Good for you. Enjoy your health. You probably appreciate it much more now

[Fraser]

Thanks guys. I have only been out of the 'game' for just over a year so I am still relatively able to hit the ground running No rush though, I need to ensure my health is stable first.

Night all

Fraser

[Marco]

that is not what he said. If you have an unskilled and a skilled polish worker and you choose the skilled over the unskilled that is not racism. To say that you won't take any polish workr because you hate them all is racist. lets at least get basic defenitions correct here please.

But you are not using the most common definition of racism. The most common definition of racism by the people who like to throw the term around the most is group outcome based (and language is defined in use, so they get to define it).

Selective immigration would take the skilled polish worker over the unskilled one, that's not racism. On average it would take Polish immigrants over say Roma immigrants though, that's what makes it racist.

[zapta]

Selective immigration would take the skilled polish worker over the unskilled one, that's not racism. On average it would take Polish immigrants over say Roma immigrants though, that's what makes it racist.

Cultural compatibility and expected assimilation are valid considerations when selecting immigrants.

[apis]

The only point I was trying to make by saying only Putin is clapping was: when all your allies are face-palming (including your own government officials) and the only one cheering is the guy your country is currently having a major conflict with, then maybe you should consider if you might have made a mistake. Just sayin'.

Didn't intend to add to the anti-putin hysteria going on around here (Putin is the boogeyman that is supposed to scare Sweden and Finland into joining NATO, for those who didn't know.)

[rolycat]

The only point I was trying to make by saying only Putin is clapping was: when all your allies are face-palming (including your own government officials) and the only one cheering is the guy your country is currently having a major conflict with, then maybe you should consider if you might have made a mistake. Just sayin'.

It's quite probable that more than half the country currently thinks we might have made a mistake.

Not much we can do about it at this point, though.

[MT]

Brexit should perhaps be put in a perspective, Britton is far far away from the situation that plagues Venezuela for instance!
The poor souls have to chase street cats to get anything to eat! Poor cats! Look and learn what hapends when nationalistic
communists are let to rule!

[apis]

I believe the Brexit vote result has far broader implications than I've seen discussed here. The neoliberal economic polices of the political class (from both the left and the right) and their corporate backers have been gutting the working and middle class for the past 30 years primarily by moving manufacturing to low wage and environmental-regulation-free developing countries. 

The coordinated actions of the central bankers have served those same interests by punishing savers - encouraging borrowing and consumption of cheap consumer goods - all to the benefit of the financiers and trans-global corporate profits.  Distract the masses with cheap gadgets and entertainment. Bread and circuses.

The EU and EMU have been a central front in this program.  While their formation had good intent - a peaceful and united Europe to prevent a replay of the horrors of the last century's wars - it has more recently been used by the Troika as a tool to keep the neoliberal economic program from falling apart.

Without the ability to independently value their own currency, the southern European countries have had no tools to counteract the fallout from the borrow and spend mentality sold to them - turning them into debt serfs or essentially slaves of the Troika. The single currency was destined to cause failure of the EMU and EU eventually. This Brexit result only pushes up the timetable.

The Brits were smart enough to avoid that pitfall by staying out of the EMU but that has not protected them from the loss of manufacturing and now they've been faced with another side effect: The fallout from the endless middle east wars - with refugees on the doorstep and Muslims radicalized from decades of war and destruction.

All of this exactly mirrors the plight of the working and middle class here in the USA just as the Brexit vote is also mirrored by the Sanders and Trump phenomenon here.

All 3 of these things - Brexit, Sanders and Trump are signs that the establishment elites are loosing control. The are reaping what they have sown.

Many people are putting down their smartphones and waking up to what has been done to them.  They may not understand exactly what has happened but they know they've been wronged and they are ready to do whatever it takes to disrupt the status quo - even if it means short term economic pain.

It's unfortunate that history has demonstrated that these type of transformations are never smooth and without turmoil (and often war). Displaced workers blame outsiders and clever politicians can feed on that natural human tendency. Unfortunately in doing so they give safe harbor to racists and xenophobes which while usually small in number are loud enough to allow unfair generalizations to be made about all those who rail against the status quo. The politicos are quick to exploit such divisions in Goebble - esk fashion - whipping up political tribalism and nationalist sentiments.

We live in dangerous times.

The EMU was destined to fail in its initial form but the EU will continue with or without the UK (and the EMU might be mended eventually). The European Union has a lot of issues but there is simply no alternative. Europe needs more cooperation, not more conflict. Chauvinistic fantasies of some old "glorious" empire are just plain dumb. We're all in the same boat. Without the UK, the EU will be more decisive and Germany will have more influence, which at the moment is a good thing (although in the long run that can become problematic as well).

It's a shame the UK is leaving, and I feel sorry for everyone who voted to remain: the young ones, the people of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Londoners. Not sure why Cameron decided to stall, maybe he is hoping there is still some way to remain in the union, but it would be better for everyone if the British government respect the referendum and begin the exit negotiations as quickly as possible.

There's nothing more to say about this issue really. It's not the end of the world, maybe the UK can join again in 10-20 years.

[Delta]

Not just limiting the numbers but also choosing the ones that bring more merit to your country.

That's the rational thing to do.

Rational yes, but by the common definition of racism, selective immigration is most definitely racist (ie. any mechanism which leads to unequal outcomes between races is racist).

that is not what he said. If you have an unskilled and a skilled polish worker and you choose the skilled over the unskilled that is not racism. To say that you won't take any polish workr because you hate them all is racist. lets at least get basic defenitions correct here please.

Absolutely.  And that's just how it is now.  A Polish worker and an Indian worker turn up at British border control.  One is let in no-questions-asked, and allowed to immediately take employment and/or claim benefits, one is not.  And the trendy liberals say Brexiteers are racist! 

[Delta]

My local supermarket has an entire "Polish" aisle, yet I couldn't find any Mr. Sheen, Kiwi, nor Cherry Blossom there!  What's the point in that?

[Macbeth]

My local supermarket has an entire "Polish" aisle, yet I couldn't find any Mr. Sheen, Kiwi, nor Cherry Blossom there!  What's the point in that?

You could have found it behind the door...? 

[vk6zgo]

From what I saw, the EU Commissioners comprise representatives of each member country. One for each. These individuals are selected by the each countries Government. What gets scary is that major decisions are made by the Commissioners without the presence of the countries PM or MEP's. Effectively a chamber of few individuals making massive decisions that effect 28 countries. That really does not seem like a great decision making structure to me !

Not that I necessarily approve but it sounds like an excellent decision making structure.

As in a structure that can actually make decisions. Otherwise getting 28 countries to agree anything must be like herding cats.

The best form of government is a benign dictatorship by someone sufficiently wise.

The real problem with that is that dictators are rarely benign and tend to have a very idealized view of their own talent to ego ratio.

What happens if you disagree with them?
Are you sent to a "benign" Gulag?

[zapta]

Not just limiting the numbers but also choosing the ones that bring more merit to your country.

That's the rational thing to do.

... any mechanism which leads to unequal outcomes between races is racist.

By that definition, our NFL is racist because its merit based player selection results in underrepresentation of white players.

You are diluting the term 'racist' to a point that it doesn't mean much.

[Brumby]

Not just limiting the numbers but also choosing the ones that bring more merit to your country.

That's the rational thing to do.

... any mechanism which leads to unequal outcomes between races is racist.

By that definition, our NFL is racist because its merit based player selection results in underrepresentation of white players.

You are diluting the term 'racist' to a point that it doesn't mean much.

I have to agree with zapta on this.

The definition of 'unequal outcomes' becomes critical - and it will rarely be given the clarification it demands.  Far too often, 'racism' is used as a weak or even throwaway excuse ... and it just trades on ignorance and hysteria, rather than validity.


The NFL example is a good one.  Racism could be claimed if there was an over-representation of white players where the range of available talent was found to be stronger with non-white players.

I have seen it all too often that people who object to valid selection on merit will pull out the discrimination card.


But enough on this.  From what I understand, there's a whole lot more involved than just a topic of racism and the fact of the matter is, now that the vote is over - what is important is what happens next.

Will the UK exit the EU?
When?  (Let's go with signing the declaration for starters here.)
Will the EU power structure try to rescue the situation - or will they pout and be stubborn?
Will those in the EU power structure learn anything - and if they do, use that knowledge to make the EU better?

[bitslice]

Even though our 16 federal states differ a lot in culture and financial resources, this model of government works good enough for us to believe that something like this should be also possible on an European scale.

Like I said, Junker loves this idea, we hate it.

We never used to have problems living with Scotland, now because of European bribes they will do anything to cling to that gravy train.

still not even a Bavarian would say he lost his cultural identity because Bavaria is a part of the German Federation.

If you ask people from deprived areas of England if their town still retains the same culture of 10-20 years ago, many will say no.
This change is almost entirely blamed on EU immigration policies that have undermined the previous cohesive culture of working class areas.

Heck, not even the dumbest remaining German Nazi idiots ever uttered that desire after 1945.

This collective guilt of modern Germans over what the Nazis did, has to end. We can see it influencing your policies on immigration where you are bending over backwards to avoid appearing discriminatory. This has resulted in insane decisions being made which are bad for all of Europe.

I'm not sure if I find it amusing or frustrating to see people all over Europe always blame Germany for their misery based on a bizarre perception of the reality.

Nobody is blaming "Germany", people are blaming Junkers and Merkel.
He was told quite specifically to not open his big mouth during the Referendum, and even Merkel has told him to quit being so nasty, and many others are laying the blame for Brexit entirely at his door. Cameron was right all along, he's simply the wrong man for the job, he's fundamentally too arrogant to learn from his mistakes.

[Kalvin]

UK can get out from this current situation quite easily by setting up another round of the same vote. Of course the "winners" will say that the new round is not needed as the dice has already cast. But the winners should not be afraid of the new vote, if the vote result is real as the outcome of the new vote should be the same. The basis for the new vote is quite clear:

1. The result 52 - 48 is very tight one, so new vote will better reflect the truth.

2. It is possible that the people didn't know what they were voting for and its consequences.

3. Some of the voters really believed for the "350m for NHS" slogan which is not going to happen.

4. Some of the people may have been protesting the current domestic politics more than whether or not belong to EU.

If the winners do not agree that the new vote should be arranged, they are acting like the crooked, non-democratic politicians they are protesting against. The current outcome 52 - 48 is too narrow to make real conclusion what the voters really meant with the other three points listed above.

The new vote could be arranged so that the voting activity shall be more than the current 72% in order to make it valid**. If the voting activity is less than the current 72% then the current result shall remain. The majority shall get at least 60% in order to change the current voting outcome. If the outcome is still the same as the current one independent of the majority percentage, it is valid. If the outcome is different with too narrow margin (like 53 "remain" - 47 "leave"), the decision will be made by the representatives of the parliament as the voting result should be considered as "tie" as the people cannot decide directly with proper margin.

Edit: ** There is a problem with this if a small minority - like 15% - would not re-vote and they can nullify the second vote altogether. Nevertheless, the votes would be still counted and would reveal what the voters wanted to say although the result may not change.

In that way the UK can save itself if the voters should see that the current outcome is a poor one, and at the same time the voters have given the EU and the current domestic politicians a good slap to their face along with the nice middle finger without destroying the Great Britain.

[rstofer]

UK can get out from this current situation quite easily by setting up another round of the same vote. Of course the "winners" will say that the new round is not needed as the dice has already cast. But the winners should not be afraid of the new vote, if the vote result is real as the outcome of the new vote should be the same. The basis for the new vote is quite clear:

How many 'do-overs' should there be?  Just one to counteract the first vote?  Maybe a third in case the second doesn't get the right answer?  Best 3 out of 5 or 4 out of 7 - like the playoffs?  Maybe somebody should just print up the ballots with the right answer already marked.  The counting will go faster!