UK forum members, BREXIT?

[Kjelt]

If they had half a brain they would have given Cameron more when he went to see them. Then perhaps the UK wouldn't have voted out.

Why? Why should your country that already had a status aparte from all other countries be again treated differently from other countries?
Do you think you should be treated differently than your neighbour?
Lets face it UK has always had a problem with the EU but it is not all the EU fault it is also because you never ever really joined and felt as if you belonged. You never choose the euro. So it was a matter of when you would leave instead of if you would leave. So be it but don't blame those that wanted you in their midst for not giving again more different or better deals than other members because that is saying "look we are special and deserve more then everyone else".

[apis]

The problem with Scotland is that they are beyond being realistic. Their independence referendum was about as bad as the one for the EU. Although they did go into the land of ludicrous. They "decided" that they will break away from the UK but that they would keep the pound sterling as their currency. They didn't ask they decided. Naturally we said no. They also "decided" that they would automatically remain a part of the EU. The EU turnaround and said don't be stupid the rules already exist for this and they clearly state that any new nation must have existed for a certain amount of time and have a proven track record economically you don't just get to join because you have "decided". They have made as much preparation to leave the UK as we had done to leave the EU in fact probably less given that all of their efforts for preparation were put into fantasies. Personally I think we should have had a vote as well on Scotland remaining or leaving and I'd have voted for them to leave because I'm getting fed up with the Scottish blaming England for all of their problems.

So all of the UK should get to vote if Scotland is allowed to leave? Shouldn't it just be up to the Scottish, just like leaving EU is up to the people of each member state?

EU only said no to Scotland because nobody wanted a divided Europe (and as a courtesy to the UK), but the picture is very different now that the UK is thinking about leaving. The EU might just change their mind about letting an independent Scotland join, why shouldn't we? Scotland can either mint their own pound and tie it to the British pound or they can adopt the Euro. The UK is going to bend over backwards in order to get access to the EU market and once a trade agreement is in place it would also apply to Scotland so no problem for the Scottish to continue trading with the UK either (and they will be backed by EU in any negotiations with the UK). Lots of scientist and businesses that would rather stay on the British isles, but who prefer to remain in the EU will be very tempted to move north, would be less of a change than moving to mainland europe and have to learn a new language and so on.
Will be a very interesting future.

[Simon]

EU only said no because we don't want a divided Europe (and as a courtesy to the UK), but the picture is very different now. The EU might just change their mind about letting an independent Scotland join, why shouldn't we? Scotland can either mint their own pound and tie it to the British pound or they can adopt the Euro. The UK is going to bend over backwards in order to get access to the EU market and once a trade agreement is in place it would also apply to Scotland so no problem for the Scottish to continue trading with the UK either (and they will be backed by EU in any negotiations with the UK). Lots of scientist and businesses that would rather stay on the British isles, but who prefer to remain in the EU will be very tempted to move north, would be less of a change than moving to the mainland and have to learn a new language and so on.
Will be a very interesting future.

There are already rules laid down. if scotland leaves the UK it is a new state, yes it can bloody well mint it's own currency and according to EU rules  a country has to be a country for "x" years before being considered for membership. They can of course change the rules if they like after all they screwed the euro up good they can do as they please again.

[dannyf]

"If they had half a brain they would have given Cameron more when he went to see them. Then perhaps the UK wouldn't have voted out."

MFN provisions are very difficult to negotiate because once you give in to one party, you have given into all parties.

While it may be optimal for EU to give intoo Cameron in the short term, it is optimal for EU to not give intoo Cameron in the long term.

[3db]

I've just about had this thread.
People don't want to hear the truth.
Would you vote for someone who said you'll  be worse off for 10 years.
Would you vote for someone who told you NOT to accrue lots of credit card debt.
etc etc.
Farage is no worse than than the rest of them.
He was at least clear and consistent  on his views of the EU.
He will also be proven right on the EU's future unless they change their ways.
Do some research into the history of the EU.You might find it interesting.

 

Maybe consistent on his views of the EU but the man twists and turns in the wind whenever he's asked to substantiate a claim, he's been caught lying, on camera, many times and has denied statements that he was shown making  on national television.

You may find it instructive to take a look on archive.org to see the lies fall away from the leave campaign's website as they were knocked down one by one, similarly from the UKIP website.

I'm sure a google search for Farage lies would be similarly instructive.

I agree, human nature is a terrible thing and yes, it's difficult for most humans to see beyond the end of their nose. Farage especially as the smoke from his pants and the fact that his nose is now probably two continents further away than it was three months ago...

Didn't you want more democracy? So now you don't cry

I'm not complaining about Brexit.
I voted FOR it !!

[Corporate666]

No, the losses aren't 'booked'.  It's just that my balance is down quite a bit.  But, hey, I managed to recover from 2008 by just hanging tight.  I'm not actively trading so I suffer from time to time and rejoice at others.

Long term gain over the last several years is an illusion.  OTOH, I have made up for my mandatory distributions so my balance isn't declining.  That works for me.  I don't need the money, I don't really want to take the distributions but what I want doesn't matter.

No offense intended to you personally, but I keep hearing people complain about how the markets are getting killed or that they have lost tons of money or their investment accounts are being hammered.

Below is the 1-year chart for the DJIA.  The S&P and NASDAQ are almost identical.  You can see that the disruption from Brexit is a small fraction of the natural rise and fall of the market over the past year.  There haven't been news stories about people being wiped out and I haven't heard much complaining from folks lately, but as soon as the market fell a couple of percent on Brexit, suddenly the sky is falling?

I think almost all the people who are saying they have been hit so hard are exaggerating to a huge degree.  I am sure there are some who were heavily invested in GBD/USD currency trading, or high-yield/high-risk UK-centric stocks, but those are the tiny minority.  For the rest, this latest blip in the stock market is substantially smaller in magnitude than ongoing market blips over the past year (or 5 years, or 10 years for that matter).

[3db]

If we don't like out Gov we can get rid of them.
That cannot be done within the EU.
Let's not forget that Cameron tried to voice his concerns and got very little.
I'm sure there will be stormy waters ahead but we'll manage.

Of course we can. Or who do you think we are? Is it you, your family, your village, your county, England, the United Kindom, the European Union, the people of Earth or the Universe?. The only "we" that can replace the UK government is the people of the entire UK, it's the same with the European union of course, it works on the European level. A single country can't be allowed to decide over all the other member states, and non-member states have no influence at all.

The member states of the European union are all democracies, we vote for our governments and they send their representatives to the Council of Ministers. We also vote directly for our representatives in the European Parliament. So yes, if the people of Europe doesn't like their MEPs or the council we can definitely get rid of them. The English are as much to blame for all the shortcomings of EU as everyone else. EU is a work in progress, it will improve as long as people vote sensibly (which seems less probable today I'll admit).

Will you now allow the Scottish to leave the UK? How about Gibraltar, Northern Ireland or Wales? Can the Scottish people get rid of the Gov in Westminster? How about brits under the age of 50? and so on...

The we is the citizens of the EU.
The commissioners are the executive of the EU.
The are sworn to uphold the EU not their states.
The council are made up of about 6 political parties. ( for want of a better word).
They have manifestos go read them.
60% of them are committed to political union.
Come to think of it they are committed to good financial management and the integration of immigrants.
That been going well !!   


 

[vk6zgo]

.
There are already rules laid down. if scotland leaves the UK it is a new state, yes it can bloody well mint it's own currency and according to EU rules  a country has to be a country for "x" years before being considered for membership. They can of course change the rules if they like after all they screwed the euro up good they can do as they please again.

They have minted their own currency for years------ Scottish notes are legal currency anywhere in the UK,just as Bank of England notes are.

The "country" status of Scotland,Wales,& Northern Ireland is a bit strange--They all compete as separate countries in the Commonwealth Games & other sporting contests,have a history of "separateness",& at least,in the case of Scotland,have their own legal system.

Also,Scotland was a country in its own right for hundreds of years before the formation of the UK.
If countries which were former victims of Soviet aggression can join the EU,surely that also applies to former victims of English aggression.

[Corporate666]

We have two banks that get big hits at the moment. One a Belgian bank, the other a French-Belgo one.
Both lost billions after the vote.

Define "lost"?

If it's a reduction in book value due to declining share price or something, then nothing (or substantially less than the paper number) was really lost.  If they were betting in the currency exchange markets or "bet the farm" on the UK staying in the EU, then that is irresponsible  investing and they are paying the justified price.

The markets are down, what, 2-3%?  For these banks to have lost billions, they would have needed to be exposed to the tune of hundreds of billions at least.  Even if we're talking about BNP or HSBC, their total worldwide assets are in the 2,000 to 2,500 billion range, so that would mean they would have a huge chunk of their total assets tied to Brexit?  Doesn't sound reasonable.  I am guessing these are paper losses and only a fraction of that amount was actually lost in real value.  And the FTSE is only down 1.4% for the week, and it's up over 3 months.  Even the 1.4% it's down for the week is a lot less than the 9% it's down for the year.

The market reaction hasn't been too bad at all.  I think most of the organizations complaining about it are just over dramatizing every little dip in the market as if it's a near fatal blow that has cost tens of thousands of jobs.  It's mostly BS, from what I can see.

[3db]

If they had half a brain they would have given Cameron more when he went to see them. Then perhaps the UK wouldn't have voted out.

Why? Why should your country that already had a status aparte from all other countries be again treated differently from other countries?
Do you think you should be treated differently than your neighbour?
Lets face it UK has always had a problem with the EU but it is not all the EU fault it is also because you never ever really joined and felt as if you belonged. You never choose the euro. So it was a matter of when you would leave instead of if you would leave. So be it but don't blame those that wanted you in their midst for not giving again more different or better deals than other members because that is saying "look we are special and deserve more then everyone else".

So now we're coming out so everything is cool 

[Corporate666]

Similar thing with this Brexit-vote: Very few voters really understand the big picture, how the things are interrelated, how the decision is really going to affect the voter, his/her family, and how the complex society and economics work in general. The voters want to have a simple, quick-fix for the current problem like immigration, current-government-suck, NHS needs more funding, and do not see how their decision will affect their lives and the general economics tomorrow. And the voters may really genuinely think that they have all the information needed to make the right decision.

Does your viewpoint also apply to those who voted "remain", or is it only those voting to leave who are misinformed and too stupid to understand the ramifications of their decision?

One of the perennial problems of the human species is that we denigrate and vilify those who see things differently from us, and we try to coerce and intimidate people into doing what we want by saying they will expose themselves as (insert negative word here) if they don't do it. 

Frankly, you're doing it too.  Nobody knew what the markets would do after the Brexit vote - anyone who did has increased their net worth by 5% over the past week by playing the market.  Nobody knows what will happen in a year or 5 years or 10 years.  Perhaps Scotland will leave the UK within 2 years.  Perhaps they won't.  Perhaps the UK will negotiate a sweetheart trade deal with the USA and will prosper far more than the EU will.  Perhaps Russia will invade somewhere in the EU and cause a crisis that breaks it apart.  Nobody knows what is going to happen, and therefore nobody can say that someone else's OPINION about what to do is right or wrong. 

For those that are critical of the people who voted Brexit, the fault lies with themselves.  The remain camp (including the current gov't of the UK and the EU) had a sales job to do, and they failed in doing it.  If the EU was as great and as necessary as people think, then it should have been an easy sales job.  After all, I doubt I need to convince many Americans that keeping the USA together is a good thing.  But it's not stupidity and ignorance that led the Brexit voters to vote leave.  They are no less intelligent or hard working or mature or experienced than the remain voters.  They just have a different viewpoint.

And they're not wrong.

[Macbeth]

One thing that is constantly overlooked in this vote by both the mainstream media and ordinary plebs is that "tiny 2% lead" over 50% (which is of course a 4 point lead over 48%) is just in the noise and give it another go and the opposite would hold. Perhaps...

More importantly this wasn't really a vote for some new A or B choice (like a general election) but a vote for well established status quo A or something radical B.

Even during all the pre-brexit polls the financial markets, EU politicians, and betting markets refused to believe anything more than say 20-30% would vote for B - and having the barrier set at 50% they all put their money on it too!

It was an absolute longshot and kind of unfair odds to the leave side to make them go 50%. The natural human condition of "better the devil you know" is well known and so priced in by all economists and politicians using game theory and psychology.

Which is why not only the pro EU side but the leave side are gobsmacked!

[doobedoobedo]

It was the old and the poor who swung the vote, so obviously they're stupid racists. Not like the trendy, (now whining) young middle class who voted remain.

The BBC has been running stories featuring small children who apparently cried when they found out the result. I never knew 8 year olds were so politically savvy. They've been out searching for fascists and implying that they're typical Leave supporters. That, along with a couple of people (old and poor obviously) who admitted that they were clueless and regretted voting leave - again implying that this was typical of leave supporters, well at least those that aren't fascists, has been encouraging those young trendy middle class people to whine louder.

There's been a lot of fuss over the half-truths told by the Leave campaign, but they pale in comparison to those told by Remain. Both sides were actually pretty scummy with their campaigning.

The world hasn't ended, WW3 doesn't look any more likely than this time last week. The pound has dropped about 6% from the 6 month average, but it's slowly going back up. It had been dropping gradually over the past year anyway. Life goes on, but with a tad more democracy for us British.

[Macbeth]

The shitty "racist" narrative is something the media is desperately trying to push. They are claiming utterly absurd claims of a 50-60% increase in "hate crime" against the polish for example. Yet the police have confirmed there has been none whatsoever.

Of course there is that single carefully cut out laminated business card printout doing the rounds. Really? A hate group would waste time and money making a shit business card on their printer and then go and laminate and cut the corners round after going all insane racist due to brexit with it? Or would they organise their individual post brexit racist sleeper cells to just print a ream of A4 sheets for less effort and cost and throw them in every letterbox they can? which hasn't happened.

Similarly the german OAP who has neighbours who hate her. I've had neighbours who hate me too. I don't blame 40 million people for it.

Let's not forget that leftist and islamist groups like UAF and Ask Mama have been caught with their absurd "hate crime" false flags or agent provocateur many times before. It really is not beyond them to spray racist grafitti or act it out because actual racists are pretty hard to find.

The UK is probably the least racist country in the world.

[rstofer]

For those that are critical of the people who voted Brexit, the fault lies with themselves.  The remain camp (including the current gov't of the UK and the EU) had a sales job to do, and they failed in doing it.  If the EU was as great and as necessary as people think, then it should have been an easy sales job. After all, I doubt I need to convince many Americans that keeping the USA together is a good thing. But it's not stupidity and ignorance that led the Brexit voters to vote leave.  They are no less intelligent or hard working or mature or experienced than the remain voters.  They just have a different viewpoint.

And they're not wrong.

You might want to eliminate the reference to the US.  Texas is rumbling again.  They want to secede over, of all things, Obama's immigration policies (which the court just squashed).  They are very unhappy. 

California is the only state that pays more into the union than it gets back.  We feed the rest of the states.  Becoming independent comes up from time to time.  One day it will stick.  Furthermore, California itself would like to break up into several separate states.  Some would probably forgo diplomatic relations with their neighbors or the US.

People here are just as angry as in the UK.  That's how Trump got where he is.

FWIW, as a condition of joining the Union, Texas reserved the right to break into five states at their sole discretion.
https://www.tsl.texas.gov/exhibits/annexation/part5/question7.html

[vodka]

For those that are critical of the people who voted Brexit, the fault lies with themselves.  The remain camp (including the current gov't of the UK and the EU) had a sales job to do, and they failed in doing it.  If the EU was as great and as necessary as people think, then it should have been an easy sales job. After all, I doubt I need to convince many Americans that keeping the USA together is a good thing. But it's not stupidity and ignorance that led the Brexit voters to vote leave.  They are no less intelligent or hard working or mature or experienced than the remain voters.  They just have a different viewpoint.

And they're not wrong.

You might want to eliminate the reference to the US.  Texas is rumbling again.  They want to secede over, of all things, Obama's immigration policies (which the court just squashed).  They are very unhappy. 

California is the only state that pays more into the union than it gets back.  We feed the rest of the states.  Becoming independent comes up from time to time.  One day it will stick.  Furthermore, California itself would like to break up into several separate states.  Some would probably forgo diplomatic relations with their neighbors or the US.

People here are just as angry as in the UK.  That's how Trump got where he is.

FWIW, as a condition of joining the Union, Texas reserved the right to break into five states at their sole discretion.
https://www.tsl.texas.gov/exhibits/annexation/part5/question7.html

That Obama have the nuts and says that Texas is a colony of USA and if they will go out , the usa have decolonized (applying the onu resolution) and will  return the sovereignty to Mexico

[Simon]

.
There are already rules laid down. if scotland leaves the UK it is a new state, yes it can bloody well mint it's own currency and according to EU rules  a country has to be a country for "x" years before being considered for membership. They can of course change the rules if they like after all they screwed the euro up good they can do as they please again.

They have minted their own currency for years------ Scottish notes are legal currency anywhere in the UK,just as Bank of England notes are.

The "country" status of Scotland,Wales,& Northern Ireland is a bit strange--They all compete as separate countries in the Commonwealth Games & other sporting contests,have a history of "separateness",& at least,in the case of Scotland,have their own legal system.

Also,Scotland was a country in its own right for hundreds of years before the formation of the UK.
If countries which were former victims of Soviet aggression can join the EU,surely that also applies to former victims of English aggression.

yes they mint the GBP, but we can't have two seperate counties using the pound. I think you will find former USSR countries were countries in their own right for some years before joining. I didn't say scotland can't join, I said they can't join immediately. The EU beleive it of not actually has "some" sund rules. You can't create a nation today and join the Eu tomorrow, the EU and euro has already taken a battering. Or maybe i mis remember and it's the euro they can't have until they have been around for a while. Either way they would need their own currency for a certain amount of years before they can join the euro. It's economic madness for them.

[vodka]

 They've been out searching for fascists and implying that they're typical Leave supporters. That, along with a couple of people (old and poor obviously) who admitted that they were clueless and regretted voting leave - again implying that this was typical of leave supporters, well at least those that aren't fascists, has been encouraging those young trendy middle class people to whine louder.

A  fascist term doesn't suitable fine, the correct term would be a National Socialism

[Brumby]

I don't think there's anything useful to gain from stock market movement over the last few days.  Volatility is the name of the game and 'paper losses' aren't worth panicking over.  The knee jerk reaction by some who follow the "When in trouble or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout" philosophy, just creates opportunity for those with a more considered approach.

OMG a politician telling 'lies' to try and gain or remain in office and exercise influence with voters. Hope it never happens here in the States. 

Now that was funny.... anywhere in the world.

[Towger]

yes they mint the GBP, but we can't have two seperate counties using the pound.

You already have 4 countries using the pound and multiple banks printing their own version. It would be no different from when Ireland left the UK. Keep the same currency for a while, then produce their own version and keep it at parity, then eventually allow it to float independently.

[Towger]

Of course converting to the euro is the easer option.  Just waking up in the morning and get euro out of ATM machines and euro change in shops. Most countries were fully converted within a month or so. I know your experience in Italy was not as smooth, but that is Italy for you!

[dannyf]

"California is the only state that pays more into the union than it gets back."

You just need a little bit of common sense to know such a statement is unlikely to be true.

Federal spending plus taxation data is widely available. For 2012 and 2013, California gave less than 300bn to the Union and took back more than 300bn from the Union.

An inconvenient truth, as a hero of mine would say.

[Tepe]

I didn't say scotland can't join, I said they can't join immediately.

Unless the EU decides to recognize Scotland as a successor state to the UK.

[Kjelt]

I don't know the exact rules, but if the rule is that a country should be part of the EU for x years and then can join I think Scotland can join right away, they have been part of the EU for a long time as part of the UK.

[dannyf]

"That Obama have the nuts and says that Texas is a colony of USA and if they will go out , the usa have decolonized (applying the onu resolution) and will  return the sovereignty to Mexico"

If he said that, he would be a hypocrite. If you have supported the right to self determination by people of Yoguslavia, the USSR, Ukraine, ..., we should take the same pill and support the right of the people of texas, California, PR, and especially Washington DC to get out of the Union.