Of course first hand reports from EV owners is good data. First hand reports of ICE owners is opinion.
Nonsense. ICE vehicle owners reporting info about ICE vehicle ownership is data. ICE only owners speculating about EV ownership experience is speculation not data. And BTW I don't think there are any EV owners here (and very few anywhere) who have not also owned an ICE vehicle.
And the need to phase out fossil fuel vehicles is not a commandment to electric vehicles. Electric vehicles are one solution.
Sure, but when it comes to personal transportation - all other alternatives explored to date (e.g. hydrogen, biofuels ) have fallen far short of the success of EVs. The market has spoken.
An arguably better solution is to go to high density housing and electric mass transit.
Good options and viable adjunct modes of transportation. It's not either/or. Are you arguing that a complete loss of personal transporation is a solution? I have long held that in the end there will by necessity be far fewer personal vehicles on the road but not none. High density housing, walkable and bike-able communities along with electric mass transport all make good sense.
There are facts and data available. Why not apply them and stop selling
I'm not selling anything. Throughout this thread, I and others have presented referenced facts as well as personal experiences on EV use. The data speaks for itself. EV sales, the number of EV models available, and the number of upcoming releases from all the major auto manufacturers are all exploding upward. Those are just the facts. Presenting them and pointing out the obvious conclusion, that EVs are very quickly becoming mainstream is not selling anything - it's acknowledging reality.
Using the sales data from the recent post you can provide one answer to the question. The data fit an exponential growth pattern reasonably well. You can extrapolate that into the future and get an answer, depending on your definition of mainstream. In my mind the lowest penetration that would qualify is 10% while 50% penetration would be pretty undeniable. With exponential growth the difference between the answers is not really significant. 10% comes in 2027 and 50% comes in 2029.
The argument now becomes whether that growth rate can be maintained. The chart does make clear the scale of the change that will have to occur to make it true.
Nice effort. Though if you are plotting US auto sales, your end point for sales is extremely unrealistic.
US monthly auto sales are on the order of 1.5 million per month. Even if your are plotting global sales, it is way off.
Global car sales average about 6.5 million per month. Your graph shows 50 million!!
If you're trying to plot global sales, your EV volumes are way off.
Global monthly EV sales are approximately 150k currently. Far greater than the 40k in your graph.
I assume these were honest mistakes and you weren't intentionally trying to mislead...