UK forum members, BREXIT?

[Simon]

Of course converting to the euro is the easer option.  Just waking up in the morning and get euro out of ATM machines and euro change in shops. Most countries were fully converted within a month or so. I know your experience in Italy was not as smooth, but that is Italy for you!

No you are tottally missing the point. I never said italy had any problems distributing the euro. We had all the money changed in a month or less.

According to the EU rules a country has to be a country with a currency for a period of time to create a financial track record because the theory is that not just any dodgy state with a screwed economy can join to bail itself out. It's like in business, if you don't have any books to show the lender to prove your a viable business that can pay debts they won't lend or they insure themselves against default and ask for a high interest rate. The same with a country in the euro.

Yu don't just get to use the euro because "you" decided you would. Scotland seems gto think it can make it's own rules but then with a leader that is akin to dear nigel that is no surprise.

[jancumps]

We have two banks that get big hits at the moment. One a Belgian bank, the other a French-Belgo one.
Both lost billions after the vote.

Define "lost"?

If it's a reduction in book value due to declining share price or something, then nothing (or substantially less than the paper number) was really lost.  If they were betting in the currency exchange markets or "bet the farm" on the UK staying in the EU, then that is irresponsible  investing and they are paying the justified price.

The markets are down, what, 2-3%?  For these banks to have lost billions, they would have needed to be exposed to the tune of hundreds of billions at least.  Even if we're talking about BNP or HSBC, their total worldwide assets are in the 2,000 to 2,500 billion range, so that would mean they would have a huge chunk of their total assets tied to Brexit?  Doesn't sound reasonable.  I am guessing these are paper losses and only a fraction of that amount was actually lost in real value.  And the FTSE is only down 1.4% for the week, and it's up over 3 months.  Even the 1.4% it's down for the week is a lot less than the 9% it's down for the year.

The market reaction hasn't been too bad at all.  I think most of the organizations complaining about it are just over dramatizing every little dip in the market as if it's a near fatal blow that has cost tens of thousands of jobs.  It's mostly BS, from what I can see.

Lost on paper as long as they stay above a certain treshold that isn't so far off. The moment they drop under that: Lost in facts, because they lost liquidity and don't hold against the banking health tests.

[Macbeth]

With the credit agencies dropping AAA status I wonder if we will finally see some interest rate rises?

[3db]

.
There are already rules laid down. if scotland leaves the UK it is a new state, yes it can bloody well mint it's own currency and according to EU rules  a country has to be a country for "x" years before being considered for membership. They can of course change the rules if they like after all they screwed the euro up good they can do as they please again.

They have minted their own currency for years------ Scottish notes are legal currency anywhere in the UK,just as Bank of England notes are.

The "country" status of Scotland,Wales,& Northern Ireland is a bit strange--They all compete as separate countries in the Commonwealth Games & other sporting contests,have a history of "separateness",& at least,in the case of Scotland,have their own legal system.

Also,Scotland was a country in its own right for hundreds of years before the formation of the UK.
If countries which were former victims of Soviet aggression can join the EU,surely that also applies to former victims of English aggression.

yes they mint the GBP, but we can't have two seperate counties using the pound. I think you will find former USSR countries were countries in their own right for some years before joining. I didn't say scotland can't join, I said they can't join immediately. The EU beleive it of not actually has "some" sund rules. You can't create a nation today and join the Eu tomorrow, the EU and euro has already taken a battering. Or maybe i mis remember and it's the euro they can't have until they have been around for a while. Either way they would need their own currency for a certain amount of years before they can join the euro. It's economic madness for them.

Which part of being a nation don't you get ?
Like I said I'm Scottish and don't want to be in the EU.
If Scotland ends up in the EU then so be it.
That's DEMOCRACY.
Currently the UK is leaving the EU.
Get over it and go read a few books !!   

As a moderator I suggest you close this thread down.
It's going NOWHERE and has served its purpose.

3DB building up to go into full rant mode.

[3db]

With the credit agencies dropping AAA status I wonder if we will finally see some interest rate rises?

Could be.
These agencies have proven to be so reliable in the past .

[3db]

One thing that is constantly overlooked in this vote by both the mainstream media and ordinary plebs is that "tiny 2% lead" over 50% (which is of course a 4 point lead over 48%) is just in the noise and give it another go and the opposite would hold. Perhaps...

More importantly this wasn't really a vote for some new A or B choice (like a general election) but a vote for well established status quo A or something radical B.

Even during all the pre-brexit polls the financial markets, EU politicians, and betting markets refused to believe anything more than say 20-30% would vote for B - and having the barrier set at 50% they all put their money on it too!

It was an absolute longshot and kind of unfair odds to the leave side to make them go 50%. The natural human condition of "better the devil you know" is well known and so priced in by all economists and politicians using game theory and psychology.



Which is why not only the pro EU side but the leave side are gobsmacked!

I believe the turnout was pretty high.
(Politicians,markets etc. )  This shows the level of disconnect between them and the population.

[Scrts]

Currently the UK is leaving the EU.

Well, that's not the official position. People provided their opinion, so why the UK parliament is struggling to initiate the 50th treat? It's not initiated, so the UK is currently NOT leaving the EU.

[3db]

Currently the UK is leaving the EU.

Well, that's not the official position. People provided their opinion, so why the UK parliament is struggling to initiate the 50th treat? It's not initiated, so the UK is currently NOT leaving the EU.

To be more precise.
Currently the UK Gov has said that it accepts the vote to leave the EU.
That IS the official position of the UK GOV as stated to the UK parliament by David Cameron current Prime Minister of the UK.
GET IT NOW ?

[dannyf]

"It's not initiated, so the UK is currently NOT leaving the EU"

So you are driving down the road to a cliff. And you would think it is accurate to tell your passengers all is OK?

[Brumby]

"It's not initiated, so the UK is currently NOT leaving the EU"

So you are driving down the road to a cliff. And you would think it is accurate to tell your passengers all is OK?

I don't see that as an analogy with any merit - unless the opinion included is universally accepted as fact.

[3db]

"It's not initiated, so the UK is currently NOT leaving the EU"

So you are driving down the road to a cliff. And you would think it is accurate to tell your passengers all is OK?

Are you trying to be some kind of smart arse ?

[Augustus]

People provided their opinion, so why the UK parliament is struggling to initiate the 50th treat?

Because they have no clue how to proceed now. They're frantically in search of a way to get outta of this deep shithole they dug themselves into, without losing to much face. This isn't over yet. Give them some more months   

[Scrts]

Currently the UK is leaving the EU.

Well, that's not the official position. People provided their opinion, so why the UK parliament is struggling to initiate the 50th treat? It's not initiated, so the UK is currently NOT leaving the EU.

To be more precise.
Currently the UK Gov has said that it accepts the vote to leave the EU.
That IS the official position of the UK GOV as stated to the UK parliament by David Cameron current Prime Minister of the UK.
GET IT NOW ?

That is the official position from UK Govt to UK people. Official position from UK Govt to EU is, as of today, UK is not leaving the EU. I am talking simply pure official facts.

[Wytnucls]

The UK will leave the Euro zone.
The people have spoken and the parliament won't stand in the way.
What is left to negotiate is the future relationship the country wants with their previous partners. In the interest of both parties, trade is unlikely to be heavily affected, but there will be strings attached.
I suspect that, 2 years down the line, the public will find that not much has been achieved by leaving the club.

[GEuser]

As a moderator I suggest you close this thread down.
It's going NOWHERE and has served its purpose.

3DB building up to go into full rant mode.

Voting closes: July 10, 2016, 07:29:34 PM

[dannyf]

"The opinion included is universally accepted as fact"

Opinions can never become facts, no matter how widely accepted they are. The fact that everything in the world considers you a toddler (an opinion) doesn't by itself make your a toddler (a fact, or not), for example.

Some propogandanist may attempt to convince the weak minded people that widely accepted opinions are facts but only the really challenged types will buy into that.

BTW, for any universally accepted fact you have, I can find at least one person who disputes it.

[Tepe]

The UK will leave the Euro zone.

They never entered it.

[GEuser]

Then after that date of July 10th we will need another thread , not that will do any good as the "people have spoken" , Bods like us with opinions do not really matter imo .

But just watchin TV today and those EU spoke persons (the official ones) are gettin really bitchy about it all with all those threats and pressure of words , and they wonder why?

From what i glean off the mayhem here in the thread there is a 2 year allowance of planning after that 50 thingymabob is filed .. 2 year!

[Kjelt]

The UK will leave the Euro zone.

They never entered it.

On the breaking eu news:

“What i don’t understand is that those who wanted to leave are totally unable to tell us what they want. But i hope that the notification by the next British government will arrive as soon as possible.”

[Scrts]

From what i glean off the mayhem here in the thread there is a 2 year allowance of planning after that 50 thingymabob is filed .. 2 year!

Need to dig up the Lisbon agreement, but to my understanding since 50th treat is initiated, then the timer of 2 years for divorce is started.

[Kjelt]

This is the timeline

[GEuser]

This is the timeline

Ok thanks ...

If one was a bit of a conspiracy nut one could think that all that pressure and nastiness (and its their own rules btw) could be a aggressive forceful way of trying to find out just what Britain is going to do just so they (EU) can do some dirty tactics to work against them (Britain) to the EU's advantage sort of like insider trading imo .

Lucky for the EU i'm not over there up the ladder at Britain , i'd fix the Bastards ! real good too .

[Wytnucls]

The UK will leave the Euro zone.

They never entered it.

I thought some smart Alec would pipe in. I said the Euro zone, not the Eurozone. Make that 'will cancel their EU membership', if you prefer.

[Cerebus]

The UK will leave the Euro zone.

POI: The UK has never been part of the Euro zone. Euro zone != EU. The Euro Zone is that collection of countries that use the Euro as currency.

[Kalvin]

This is the timeline

Exactly. So, the UK will be a full member of EU for at least next two years after UK files the Article 50 with full obligations to comply EU rules and pay the fees. If the extended period is requested and approved, UK can be a full member up to next 10 years with full obligations to comply EU rules and pay the fees.

In summary: Nothing will change in the UK regarding the EU for the next two ... ten years even if the UK files the Article 50 like today.