I would argue that real autonomous driving (in a real world traffic situation you could encounter today in a car) could only work reliably with real artificial intelligence (and not some brainless neuronal network giving somewhat nondeterministic results) so it could react to unexpected situations at least as good as a human driver.
So even ten years from now sounds pretty much optimistic unless there is some unexpected breakthrough in AI.Yep, in all the hype this gets forgotten, they aren't even close to what a human driver can do in terms of the unexpected. Won't even happen in 10 years, I'm calling that one too.I think you are wrong here
and it is time you back these kind of claims with some factual information.
I don't think the EV market will go away like that. Certainly, it will lose a high profile player, but there are other manufacturers who are in the game to some degree - and with some bold legislative targets in place in some areas and the general tendency away from the love affair with petroleum fuels, it will continue. There will be an impact, but it won't be terminal.Tesla isn't the biggest player in the EV market today. Not by a long shot.
Well this is an engineering forum so it would be nice to have a discussion which is based on some factual information and not wild guesses.
Why would a self driving car need to park? In many cities driving around on the slowest route will be cheaper compared to paying for the parking space.
I would argue that real autonomous driving (in a real world traffic situation you could encounter today in a car) could only work reliably with real artificial intelligence (and not some brainless neuronal network giving somewhat nondeterministic results) so it could react to unexpected situations at least as good as a human driver.
So even ten years from now sounds pretty much optimistic unless there is some unexpected breakthrough in AI.Yep, in all the hype this gets forgotten, they aren't even close to what a human driver can do in terms of the unexpected. Won't even happen in 10 years, I'm calling that one too.I think you are wrong here and it is time you back these kind of claims with some factual information.
Why would a self driving car need to park? In many cities driving around on the slowest route will be cheaper compared to paying for the parking space.
Besides that many people are really dumb when it comes to finding a parking space. On a lower or upper floor you can usually park right next to the elevator and get out of the parking garage quicker. Instead many people like to wait until someone is leaving a space (causing a traffic jam and delay) because they are to neurotic to look further. A self driving car can take these metrics into account an find the most optimal parking space. In the future self driving cars are likely able to talk to the 'empty space' detection system and drive to the nearest available parking space.
Even the best systems in pretty simple driving scenarios average something like only a few hours before they require human intervention.
And people are predicting the roads will be filled with fully autonomous cars within 1-2 years. Bullshit.
Even if they can drive well and if they can park in a space, how will they go finding a space to park?
Is this even part of the programming? I know I use lots of clues to find a spot including looking to see if someone is in the drivers seat and may be about to put their seat belt on. I also look at people with a shopping bag and stalk them in case they are leaving.
The cars have to be able to recognise parking signs to ensure they don't park and get a ticket. Who gets the ticket?
Weed smoking Musk has promised exactly that, putting them on the streets next year. Yeah, another visionary thing. With cannabis the term "visionary" takes a new meaning.
I've observed that parking lot behavior too. But my point was not just in a regulated parking garage but also in the street and wherever a less clearly delineated cluster of parking spaces exist.
As for an auto knowing where a free empty space is, well I'd like to see it argue with a human driver who thinks they saw it first. It will possibly literally demonstrate "punching their lights out".
My basic argument is that where humans and autos interact there are situations that are not part of the programmed intelligence of the machine. As long as that remains so then autos are simply robots that need an artificially constrained environment to operate in. They will not be ready for the real world soon.
And I am betting the cost will be too high and the world will move past them being a viable option.
While the cars don't rely on neural networks to determine if there is an obstacle on the road in front of the car (that is what they use the lidar for)
Just my engineering opinion based on what I see, experience, and can easily imagine in terms of possible complex scenarios.
I've seen the tracking data on the best autonomous cars and they miss plenty of basic stuff. Even the best systems in pretty simple driving scenarios average something like only a few hours before they require human intervention. It's not hard to imagine countless scenarios that would confuse even the best systems and how these systems aren't even close to learning how to deal with them.
And people are predicting the roads will be filled with fully autonomous cars within 1-2 years. Bullshit.
It's not the twisty crowded roads, it's the rain, hail and snow. The lidar is famously blinded by heavy precipitation.
I remember driving home one night from the city. It was raining hard and Sydney's streets were more than their usual nightmare with nighttime road works, huge flood lighting blinding everything, and contraflows galore that even I had a hard time figuring out. And I remember thinking that an autonomous car wasn't going to be able to handle this within my lifetime.
Maybe if it tailgated the car in front that would be a sensible AI tactic, but on it's own no freaking way.
I remember driving home one night from the city. It was raining hard and Sydney's streets were more than their usual nightmare with nighttime road works, huge flood lighting blinding everything, and contraflows galore that even I had a hard time figuring out. And I remember thinking that an autonomous car wasn't going to be able to handle this within my lifetime.
Maybe if it tailgated the car in front that would be a sensible AI tactic, but on it's own no freaking way.I have a hard time believing the human sensor array can't be topped by a carefully designed technological one for this kind of data acquisition.
It's not the twisty crowded roads, it's the rain, hail and snow. The lidar is famously blinded by heavy precipitation.
I remember driving home one night from the city. It was raining hard and Sydney's streets were more than their usual nightmare with nighttime road works, huge flood lighting blinding everything, and contraflows galore that even I had a hard time figuring out. And I remember thinking that an autonomous car wasn't going to be able to handle this within my lifetime.
Maybe if it tailgated the car in front that would be a sensible AI tactic, but on it's own no freaking way.
You can train it to do anything, but that's not the point.
All we ever see is these autonomous cars doing (relatively) basic stuff, as advanced and impressive as that is of course, again it's not anything close to what a human is capable of.
Can't say I've seen one get out of the way of an ambulance. Pull over when the cops point their finger. Notice that someone is walking toward their car and is about to hop in and so wait for a minute.
While the cars don't rely on neural networks to determine if there is an obstacle on the road in front of the car (that is what they use the lidar for)The Tesla doesn't have a LIDAR, and Musk recently said any company who uses one is doomed.
It's not the twisty crowded roads, it's the rain, hail and snow. The lidar is famously blinded by heavy precipitation.I remember driving home one night from the city. It was raining hard and Sydney's streets were more than their usual nightmare with nighttime road works, huge flood lighting blinding everything, and contraflows galore that even I had a hard time figuring out. And I remember thinking that an autonomous car wasn't going to be able to handle this within my lifetime.
Maybe if it tailgated the car in front that would be a sensible AI tactic, but on it's own no freaking way.
But the Tesla isn't a self driving car
I've heard them mention all of those scenarios saying they can handle that. The Waymo cars have microphones that actively listen for sirens, they can recognise emergency vehicles and they will take appropriate actions to let them pass. They use neural networks to predict if someone is about to get into (or out of) a car, and I've seen a video of the cars following the commands from a traffic police using hand gestures in an intersection.