Author Topic: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.  (Read 28122 times)

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Offline doobedoobedo

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #25 on: November 24, 2018, 02:49:51 pm »
They were charging without a BMS. I think the moral of this is don't be an idiot.
 

Offline SpecmasterTopic starter

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #26 on: November 24, 2018, 04:09:20 pm »
They were charging without a BMS. I think the moral of this is don't be an idiot.
Do you actually know they were charging without a BMS? I don't recall ever seeing the car being disconnected before pushing it out of the garage!

I think it was just sitting there with nothing going on when it burst into flames.
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Offline SpecmasterTopic starter

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #27 on: November 24, 2018, 04:26:35 pm »
We are already pushing out millions of Lithium batteries into tablets, smartphones and laptops. Only a handful of them spontaneously self combust (except for the Note 8 phone), so I don't think it's a chronic problem.
But yeah, any chain reaction would be messy. I think it's pretty common to LiPo batteries (that are a bit more unstable than Lithium-Ion) in special bags or containers that should contain the fire when it is stored.

In contrast.. A combustion engine is designed to operate on the principle of combustion. We pour 50 liters of combustible liquid (that quickly evaporates as a toxic gas) into a tank, that is pumped into a specially designed metal block with combustion chambers that house controlled explosions. We need an thermostat and active cooling system to make sure this system won't overheat when it's just running stationary. The designed operating temperature is in the order of 90 to 110C, plenty hot for nasty burns. The exhaust fumes of a car are fed and filtered through an exhaust pipe, where toxic concentrations of oxocarbons (and the like) are still present. In addition in a diesel engine, if any fuel line leaks or hose starts to erode due to aging, it may light the whole engine bay no fire in no time. This is (or was?) actually not uncommon with older buses (that are poorly maintained) in the Netherlands.
You are correct about buses catching fire. I used to be an engineer on a bus company with about 1000 buses and the problem with buses is poor maintenance and it shows up on under floor engines, which lay on their side. Diesel and engine oli leaks, though tiny, build up a small pool on the crankcase castings, dirt and fluff etc settles in this. The pool gets quite hot as the engine is running for hours on end and all it needs is a spark or discarded cigarette butt that is still glowing to be blown / sucked into this pool and wooff you have a fire. I have examined many buses after they have had a fire and in case the cause was the same. None of the buses in my care (about 160) ever caught fire because they were properly maintained and the engines regularly engines washed to prevent this build up occurring.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 05:02:44 pm by Specmaster »
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Offline nctnico

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #28 on: November 24, 2018, 05:04:16 pm »
They were charging without a BMS. I think the moral of this is don't be an idiot.
Another failure mode which can cause spontaneous Li-ion fires is when cells have been discharged too deep. This causes 'growth' of crystals (dendrites) which puncture the seperator layer. This is a ticking time-bomb with a random timer.
https://www.electronicproducts.com/Power_Products/Batteries_and_Fuel_Cells/What_are_dendrites_and_why_do_they_cause_fires_in_lithium_batteries.aspx
Chances are they used an old battery pack has been mistreated or discarded for no longer being safe.
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #29 on: November 24, 2018, 07:08:33 pm »
They were charging without a BMS. I think the moral of this is don't be an idiot.

I understand. If I give you a box which says "BMS" on the top, it solves the problem. If you don't buy the box, you are an idiot. Is this proper way of engineering such safety-critical systems?

The sad part is, the more serious an incident is (such as this), the less likely people seem to be willing to do a proper root cause analysis - or even speculate properly. For some reason, people get scared, and our brains seem to have this failure mode of fearing analysis when exactly that would be your best friend - instead we resort to easy simplifications and finding clear scapegoats - having no actual information doesn't prevent you from faking it. Typical suspects are, depending on "which bubble you live in", that a li-ion fire is either caused by a BMS, or by the lack of it. When properly analyzed, either can be the actual reason, but most of the reasons are neither of these two.

Speculation is all good, to find ideas, but in cases like this, some real information is needed, and we should be honest about it when we are speculating.

Here comes some speculation:

Most typical reasons for catastrophic failures include improper manufacturing quality and physical damage (such as cell penetration). This is said to be a dismantled Tesla pack, so it should rule out cell quality (they would be Panasonic, one of the best you can get). This in fact makes the incident really interesting - the root cause is probably some of the less frequent stories.

After these two obvious causes, the next on the line might be using cells that have died by severe overdischarge. As nctnico explains, copper dendrites may appear. There are so-called proper "revive" algorithms for slightly overdischarged cells (basically, very slow charge such as C/100 with voltage monitoring - AFAIK the idea is to have the dissolved copper go back in the current collector where it came from, instead of forming said dendrites!) While officially supported by the manufacturers such as Samsung, it may still be better to just dispose of such cells, even if they are almost within limits.

A proper BMS does not allow charging of a pack with a cell at, say, less than 2.5V. On the other hand, there are improper BMS ICs on the market from reputable manufacturers, which fail to follow the correct practices. For example, a certain TI product does the "revive conditioning" at C/10 when configured typically, and it's impractical to configure it below C/20. The conditioning charge is too fast, and the dendrite risk is real. People who blindly design in these trusted BMS products, are doomed. But like with any semiconductors (think about an opamp!), you need to understand the datasheet, all its parameters, and you need to understand the problem you are solving; no opamp datasheet guarantees it's suitable for a specific application. Now you would expect that application-specific ICs are suitable for their specific applications, but don't take it for granted; these ICs are not safety-certified finished products; the BMS designer designing in the chip is the one who is supposed to be in that position, but often they don't know this!

So, as you can see, the next speculation target might be "the failed BMS" story. Yes, you read correctly, this is the case where either the BMS is to blame directly, or the misuse of a BMS, coupled with the false sense of security in using one. When people charge or discharge without a BMS, they usuallyl tend to have a clue, set a charger CV voltage setpoint properly, for example. With a BMS, a lot of utterly dangerous advice exists, even from the manufacturers. The most fundamental issue is the "just use BMS and forget about it" cargo cult attitude, as demonstrated here, again.

As a concrete example, many BMS manuals and brochures instruct that with their BMS, you can use "any" charger, even "stupid" current sources, because the BMS "controls" the charging. In an ideal model this works, as long as:
1) the BMS never malfunctions - when wired like this, it stops being a redundant safety system, and becomes the only critical loop, and it tends to be a more complex, more error-prone system, compared to a simple resistor divider limit in a power supply;
2) the BMS is actually connected properly, so it can physically stop the charging - preferably two ways, soft "charge enable" and driving the main contactor. No joke, this mistake really happens. It doesn't help if an unconnected "charger disable" signal screams while the cells start approaching 5 volts.

A proper use of BMS should definitely include using a charger with a properly adjusted voltage setpoint, so even if the BMS fails, the charger just charges the cells fully as a single pack (like you do without a BMS). Even with a slightly imbalanced pack, this is unlikely to cause dangerously serious damage, so it acts as an extra safety layer. Independent safety layers are great! That's where an independent BMS system can really shine. Don't ever waste this opportunity by trusting it completely as the only mean!


With recycled cells, you never know the full story of the cells. For example, if these packs are dismantled from a crashed car, mechanical damage is well possible. Or, a previous owner has charged a dead cell, causing those dendrites, and the current owner cannot know this as the cell isn't below low voltage limit anymore.

Or, it may be a combination, for example, too high of a charging current to a deep-discharged cell, combined with a physical shock, combined with it being charged fully.

Speaking of dendrites, lithium plating and lithium dendrites do happen near full charge, by:
1) overcharge by voltage - this is easy to define and easy to avoid.
2) charging current too high, combined with high state-of-charge, combined with low temperature. This is a more complex function.

This is a different mechanism from overdischarging, which causes copper current collector to dissolve, letting copper ions into the electrolyte.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 07:13:17 pm by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline SpecmasterTopic starter

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #30 on: November 24, 2018, 08:07:09 pm »
@Siwastaja, thank you for the detailed information, it does throw some useful light on the subject and shows the dangers of jumping to what I believe was the wrong conclusion about not having a BMS in circuit. Unless I fell asleep and failed to see that or hear it mentioned during the video  :phew:

I have an open mind as to what caused this fire and as the OP in this case and regardless of what the garage may or not have done to this vehicle it serves as a warning and an eye opener that these cells / batteries are highly dangerous and that before we throw out altogether the use of fossil fuels that we still have a massive way to go yet with an alternative to fossil fuels which have had decades of research into making its use and storage safer than ever.

Yes, I understand that conventional cars do catch fire, I have seen this first hand many times but I have yet to see one explode beyond the windows blowing out and the tyres exploding, generally the fuel tank seems to do a good job of protecting the bulk of the fuel becoming involved in the fire. You can see examples of this on major highways when there is a car fire, they tend to keep the highway open if possible albeit maybe just a single lane passed the incident. Surely if there was real serious danger of the fuel tank exploding they would shut the highway down completely and impose a no go zone around it?

In that particular video there was individual cells exploding and becoming red hot flaming projectiles going in all directions which could result in personal injuries and also spreading the fire far and wide. Even if in a normal production car, that might have  prevented that from occuring to being encased within a metal shell, there will always be examples of people building custom vehicles, where a metal encasement might not be used as in the video.

I'm not an expert in this area by any means, but it does strike me as we need to understand a lot more about these systems and how they behave when under stress etc before we declare that all new vehicles will be electric and also just how do we extend the range to at least equal to that of tankful of petrol or diesel and again a quick and simple method of recharging and be on your way without having to stop for a considerable time waiting batteries to recharge. 
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Offline doobedoobedo

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #31 on: November 24, 2018, 09:43:05 pm »
They were charging without a BMS. I think the moral of this is don't be an idiot.
Do you actually know they were charging without a BMS? I don't recall ever seeing the car being disconnected before pushing it out of the garage!

I think it was just sitting there with nothing going on when it burst into flames.

They admit it at the end of the video also if you read some of the comments it's pointed out that there's a short cut at around 3:13 where a cord is connected then suddenly isn't.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #32 on: November 24, 2018, 09:50:25 pm »
In that particular video there was individual cells exploding and becoming red hot flaming projectiles going in all directions which could result in personal injuries

These "projectiles" have fairly low kinetic energy, they barely fly a few dozen meters. It's comparable to someone throwing the cells around. Any metallic battery box completely stops them from flying. No, they won't penetrate the metal. Maybe paper.

But yes, in development labs / hobby this is really dangerous, since this kind of flaming projectile can set anything on fire, even if you were careful to make sure there is no flammable material right next to your battery pack.

(Personally, I use a sheet metal box for this reason. It doesn't need to be anything special. They are not bullets.) A box also distributes the heat by not allowing the flames to shoot out from a single place.

Quote
I'm not an expert in this area by any means, but it does strike me as we need to understand a lot more about these systems and how they behave when under stress etc before we declare that all new vehicles will be electric

Oh, IMHO, this isn't a problem, because there is a direct replacement type relationship here (i.e., an upgrade), and the original situation sucks so much it's easy to improve on. Depending on where you get the exact figures, electric vehicles reduce the number of vehicle fires and their severity either a bit or by a lot. It's an improvement anyway.

It's of course sad it isn't even more safe, that would be great. But it's not a disadvantage, either, since it's at least similar or better anyway.

It's just that a gasoline car burning is a completely everyday action everywhere, it's so common that no one's interested at all. We need to compare to that. People die because of that in significant numbers, all the time. This is of no interest to anyone, either. Why should it? A much more relevant issue is people dying in traffic accidents due to other causes than fires.

Of course, we would all like to have safer battery technology. It would be so cool. Burning electrolyte and thermal runaway at 170 degC sucks.

I don't wan't to downplay the issue. It's a significant thing. If it wasn't important, I would be cool with people freaking out, like they do on unimportant things like the fact that some celebtrity is with another celebrity. But instead, because this is actually important, I want to see some real improvement, which comes through proper root cause analysis and fixing the process.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 09:57:03 pm by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline fsr

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #33 on: November 24, 2018, 10:08:20 pm »
Yep, they say that in the video "no BMS and no cooling":

https://youtu.be/WdDi1haA71Q?t=691

About sprinklers in the garages. I suppose that they would need to have a special liquid, because puring water into a damaged ~150 kw battery pack... i don't know, to me that sounds like a lot of trouble. This battery packs have like 400v output voltage. No fooling around with this things.

You cannot "just improvise" how to charge/use those battery packs, just like you better follow instructions when charging a gasoline tank. Like: no smoking when surrounded by toxic, explosive gases. You wouldn't replace a gasoline tank with a cardboard box, right?
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 10:13:44 pm by fsr »
 

Offline doobedoobedo

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #34 on: November 24, 2018, 10:13:05 pm »
@Siwastaja - I tend to call any kind of charge controller a BMS.

From the way the cells all basically started going off at once I would say they were _all_ pretty hot before the very first one caught. For me the most likely cause is that they were overcharged to the point of failure. From what I can tell from the video about the size of the cable attached I would also speculate that it was over-voltage rather than over current.
 

Online NiHaoMike

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #35 on: November 24, 2018, 10:24:48 pm »
About sprinklers in the garages. I suppose that they would need to have a special liquid, because puring water into a damaged ~150 kw battery pack... i don't know, to me that sounds like a lot of trouble. This battery packs have like 400v output voltage. No fooling around with this things.
I recall even Tesla recommends using water to extinguish a battery fire.
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Offline raptor1956

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #36 on: November 24, 2018, 10:25:53 pm »
Overcharging batteries is bad ... who knew?

A friend I worked with was also the Chief of a voluntary fire department and had to respond to a number of auto accidents that resulted in a gasoline fire -- the effect that has on the occupants that can't escape is horrific.  If I had to chose between a battery fire or a gasoline fire in my car I'd chose the battery every time given the slower energy release and generally lower total energy content.


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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #37 on: November 24, 2018, 10:32:47 pm »
There clearly is a (partially) installed cell-level BMS in the pack, as you can see from the massive amount of thin wire spaghetti, which probably belongs to a centralized BMS system (per battery module). Assuming this belongs to the original BMS, probably the unit itself is removed, but the wiring left behind. This kind of spaghetti wiring is a possible risk as well, and needs to be properly fused and insulated.

"No cooling" is meaningless. Such a pack in such a small and low-power vehicle certainly doesn't need any kind of active cooling, the discharge and charge rates are going to be low. And, even cooling cannot replace temperature sensing, which is important in any case, because even cooling can fail (and is hard to model perfectly). Tesla uses water cooling to equalize the battery aging, and to make massive discharge rates (such as 2C) and then, without cooling time, high charge rates (around 1C), possible. But Tesla is special, they are high-performance -  most battery packs don't use active cooling, but simply cool through the surface area of the pack. I'm 100% positive that the "lack of cooling" is not the issue here. To give you an idea of magnitudes, cruising at 10hp or 7kW power and charging from 3kW wall socket would mean, at 98% battery efficiency, 140W thermal output, on a battery pack surface at least a square meter!

OTOH, if you want to design cooling to prevent thermal runaway in failure conditions, that's gonna be hard. Even Tesla seems to have failed it (despite a lot of great engineering that went into it).

Temperature monitoring, though, is a very good idea. It's one of the central parts of a proper battery management system, but it doesn't come "automatically" by getting a BMS. In such a big pack, you may want to use more sensors than your BMS has inputs for. The BMS I designed for a 100s system had support for 200 temperature sensors, for example.

"Use a BMS" may be the stupidest thing you can say. It's not something you just buy and use. It's a system, and a process. It's automation technology as well. It's not a silver bullet, and it isn't a lab safety device people seem to think it is.

In such a large pack, you are the one who "builds" the BMS, around the pack - typically using some already existing solution as components. For example, you need to install sufficient number of thermal sensors, you need to know exactly how to fuse the voltage sense wires and how to insulate them when they cross higher voltages in automotive environment, where rubbing may happen. You need to understand the fusing, contactor ratings, etc, and it's not trivial. BMS adds its own limits: for example, it may become forbidden to add a fuse or a safety disconnect to a certain links.

So just getting a BMS and somehow gluing it together and calling it a day is a recipe for total disaster. Well, at least an equal disaster than doing random things without a BMS. The BMS is not the point - the point is to understand and do the Right Thing.

Water - a lot of it - is the right, and the only proper way to fight lithium ion fire, it's the only way to remove the heat power output at sufficient rate. Since the cell chemistry contains the oxidizer (in LiNiCoAlO2), any CO2/powder/chemical/foam/halon distininguishers are completely useless in stopping the reaction. They can, of course, distinguish the surrounding materials that already caught fire.

Quote
From the way the cells all basically started going off at once I would say they were _all_ pretty hot before the very first one caught.

Maybe, maybe not. To me, it looks like initially they go off at about 20-30 second intervals and spread slowly, it gets quicker once it's outside. It's hard to see, really because each single cell popping looks quite dramatic already. (Note there are cuts in the video.)

While it is possible that the full pack was grossly overcharged, so that all cells would be already hot due to overcharging, I don't feel it's likely. Why?
1) The level of acutely dangerous overcharge, where temperature starts to rise, is somewhere around 4.6V/cell. The voltage rise is fairly linear from 4.2V;
2) With such a massive pack, unless they have a massive charger, charging is going to be slow, so reaching that level would take time,
3) It would be indeed quite stupid to set the charger to output such a high voltage, and forget it completely for such a long time.

It's not impossible, just other failure modes seem more plausible, including gross imbalance leading the really severe overcharge of some cells, prior damage - physical or overdischarge, etc.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 10:57:32 pm by Siwastaja »
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #38 on: November 24, 2018, 11:06:56 pm »
The order of magnitude we are talking about is something like 100-200kWh released within 5-15 minutes, equivalent to a good big bonfire. An equivalent gasoline fire would be around 500kWh (for 50 liters or 13.2 gallons) possibly released within a minute or even less.

A battery stores 200kWh doesn't mean it burns and releases 2000kWh of heat. The chemicals inside, say, electrolyte, solvent, carbon, copper foil, aluminum foil, don't get calculated when rating its stored energy, yet they do contribute to the fire, in a massive way.

A 200kWh battery can probably easily output 500kWh thermal energy when it's on fire.

But the EV battery isn't 200kWh. My number 100-200kWh included all that already, for a typical kinda-average 30-50kWh battery. This isn't very precise since I have seen quite different numbers for this total combustion energy ratio, but anyway, it's the correct order of magnitude and it's very unlikely to be over 200kWh. I could have stated this originally to be clearer, but I did assume everyone knows there are no EVs with 100-200kWh batteries so the number must include something else...
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 11:08:49 pm by Siwastaja »
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #39 on: November 25, 2018, 12:10:03 am »
Overcharging batteries is bad ... who knew?

A friend I worked with was also the Chief of a voluntary fire department and had to respond to a number of auto accidents that resulted in a gasoline fire -- the effect that has on the occupants that can't escape is horrific.  If I had to chose between a battery fire or a gasoline fire in my car I'd chose the battery every time given the slower energy release and generally lower total energy content.
The problem isn't the gasoline but the flammability of the interior. Besides that the fire/heat won't kill you but the smoke will. The gasoline is safely contained within the fuel line and the fuel tank (which is outside the passenger compartment for obvious reasons). This doesn't mean a fire in the engine bay can't reach the interior but it is not like burning gasoline is sprayed into the interior.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 12:11:41 am by nctnico »
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Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #40 on: November 25, 2018, 02:29:32 am »
The problem isn't the gasoline but the flammability of the interior. Besides that the fire/heat won't kill you but the smoke will. The gasoline is safely contained within the fuel line and the fuel tank (which is outside the passenger compartment for obvious reasons). This doesn't mean a fire in the engine bay can't reach the interior but it is not like burning gasoline is sprayed into the interior.

Yeah.
Also note that (and I still hate diesel engines!), diesel fuel doesn't burn easily. Not nearly as easily as gasoline. Just an additional thought regarding diesel cars.

That said, most decently recent gas engine cars (not diesel) that have a decent score at crash tests will survive pretty violent crashes without catching on fire. Let alone self-ignite. :-DD
Decades ago, that was not an unusual event, and incidently was most often due to an electric fault setting the car on fire... ;D but that has become more the exception than the norm nowadays.

The most cars catching on fire lately are those that are set on fire by offenders on new years' eve or during violent riots. And I'm pretty sure in those events, an EV can be set on fire almost as easily as any other...
 

Online wraper

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #41 on: November 25, 2018, 02:42:12 am »
That said, most decently recent gas engine cars (not diesel) that have a decent score at crash tests will survive pretty violent crashes without catching on fire. Let alone self-ignite. :-DD
Decades ago, that was not an unusual event, and incidently was most often due to an electric fault setting the car on fire... ;D but that has become more the exception than the norm nowadays.

The most cars catching on fire lately are those that are set on fire by offenders on new years' eve or during violent riots. And I'm pretty sure in those events, an EV can be set on fire almost as easily as any other...
Statistics say that chance your usual ICE car will catch fire order is of magnitude higher than Tesla. https://www.statista.com/statistics/377006/nmber-of-us-highway-vehicle-fires/
170 thousands of car fires annually in US alone but nobody cares. But all of the news about some poor Tesla.
Quote
The most cars catching on fire lately are those that are set on fire by offenders on new years' eve or during violent riots.
Just a small percentage by statistics. https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i2.pdf
« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 02:53:03 am by wraper »
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #42 on: November 25, 2018, 02:55:55 am »
Is that sample group statistically relevant in size and adjusted for car age and class, which should impact the level of maintenance?
 
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Offline amyk

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #43 on: November 25, 2018, 03:19:12 am »
The problem isn't the gasoline but the flammability of the interior. Besides that the fire/heat won't kill you but the smoke will. The gasoline is safely contained within the fuel line and the fuel tank (which is outside the passenger compartment for obvious reasons). This doesn't mean a fire in the engine bay can't reach the interior but it is not like burning gasoline is sprayed into the interior.
This. All the Vauxhall Zafiras that burned started in the dashboard due to an electrical fault (and far too much flammable plastics around), not because of fuel leaks or anything related to the fuel itself.

http://data.parliament.uk/WrittenEvidence/CommitteeEvidence.svc/EvidenceDocument/Transport/Vauxhall%20vehicle%20fires/written/47523.html

...far too much flammable plastics. I've never seen a plastic blower motor until now. |O
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #44 on: November 25, 2018, 03:22:44 am »
@wraper: my considerations weren't directly comparing with EVs, but merely talking about gas and diesel cars. I don't think we have enough EVs in circulation and enough hindsight to make relevant statistics when trying to compare the respective risks, really. Doesn't make much sense at the moment IMO. So in the same vein, I would refrain obviously from stating alarming facts about risks that would be specific to EVs. Note that I didn't. There is just one and very real added risk with EVs it that IF they ever catch on fire (for any reason), there are specific precautions to take to extinguish the fire, and firemen should be trained for those, unfortunately there aren't enough of them that are trained as of now, at least in european countries. Failing to take the proper actions may lead to catastrophic events...

In the same vein, obviously not all countries are equal regarding the kind of statistics you mentioned. Although exact statistics are not always publicly available (in France they aren't), a quick search showed me that in the US, intentional fires are something like 10 times less in proportion than in the UK for instance. And the ratio is even higher comparing to France, where some statistics give the overall proportion of intentional vehicle fires to be something between 50% and 60% (yes it has become very severe over here.)

Another difference between countries is also related to the proportion of diesel cars. Whereas there are still relatively few in the US, they have become a majority in some european countries (which is a plague for many reasons). A plague, but as I said, diesel fuel doesn't burn as well as gasoline. So that also explains some of the differences during car accidents.

As for the causes, your reports also place electrical failures as a significant cause of fires (outside of crashes), so my point regarding those seems to apply more widely than the others.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #45 on: November 25, 2018, 03:23:29 am »
The problem isn't the gasoline but the flammability of the interior. Besides that the fire/heat won't kill you but the smoke will. The gasoline is safely contained within the fuel line and the fuel tank (which is outside the passenger compartment for obvious reasons). This doesn't mean a fire in the engine bay can't reach the interior but it is not like burning gasoline is sprayed into the interior.
This. All the Vauxhall Zafiras that burned started in the dashboard due to an electrical fault (and far too much flammable plastics around), not because of fuel leaks or anything related to the fuel itself.

Yep.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #46 on: November 25, 2018, 08:36:31 am »
Is that sample group statistically relevant in size and adjusted for car age and class, which should impact the level of maintenance?

Exactly. This is what makes the comparison difficult, and why we see numbers ranging between "the incident rate is about the same" to "EVs are ten times more safe".

Another issue is we are comparing number of incidents. We should be comparing num_incidents * average_severity. Actually, comparing death toll works quite well since it automatically takes care of this. But, battery-related EV fires resulting in actual deaths are so rare (is there even a single case yet reported?) that it's statistically irrelevant.

The battery safety is a real issue and it is wishful thinking to market or buy an EV based on assumption that it will be somehow much more safe against vehicle fire. It probably isn't, or even if it was, that's almost meaningless in the big picture.

Even within the fire safety discussion, the difference between an EV and a gasoline car is not that big: it's still most likely the part that causes most of the damage and danger is neither the gasoline tank, nor the battery, but the interior, tyres and all plastic parts burning.

The battery burns slower, with less energy released than a gasoline tank, but OTOH, it's very rare that the fire consumes the full amount of the gasoline, as people have pointed out - it just doesn't easily go off in the tank, and the fire just doesn't get "into the tank". When it happens, and it does happen, for example, by producing a leak in the tank due to an impact, the consequences can be large; much larger than in an EV battery fire. Car-to-car chain reactions were discussed earlier; with gasoline, it's theoretically possible, because even a fairly small leak makes it flow everywhere, and under the adjacent cars. Not saying this is common (the gasoline tank is well protected), but it does happen.

So, the profile for these accident types are so different it's a classical apples-to-oranges thing. Gasoline increases the worst-case result beyond what an EV battery can cause, but such worst case is rare: the massive number of everyday gasoline car fires are not such cases. So does it matter so much?

Then, compared to other types of accidents, the fire is not the #1 problem, or even the #10.

Finally, in my opinion, it does not make sense to design crippled EV battery with ridiculouly bad driving range and massive weight "for fire safety". This route has been tried (for example, by advocating LTO and LFP chemistries - which has been a farce, since LFP cells have been in many battery fire incidents, so they are not even safer, and LTO is almost comparable to lead acid so enjoy your 50 kilometer driving range on your 200kg battery pack!)

IMHO, designing highest energy density, lowest cost, lowest possible environmental footprint, battery tech is the right thing to do for the people of this planet, even if they were not perfectly safe. It's just that sitting in any vehicle is a real risk, all the time. To put peoples (irrational) expectations to numbers (to show the irrationality), they are very worried about the issue that by replacing a gasoline tank with a battery, the dangerous car incidents don't go down, or go down by 0.1%, whereas people would like them to go down by 0.2% (by eliminating one non-dominating source completely, instead of just, say, halving it).

It's just that our modern world is freaking out about any "safety" problem. The more obscure and improbable it is, the more it gets attention. Everybody totally freaks out when someone dies of electric shock (which is so damn rare). As a consequence, every engineer totally freaks out if a Chinese power supply has 3mm creepage distance when a standard calls for 6mm, even though it's extremely improbable someone would actually die because of it.

Meanwhile, everyone is totally OK breathing in toxic, carcinogenic shit, eating shit, driving drunk, wasting their life in stressful unnecessary commuting, and so on. And, worse, if we suggest anything that makes our lives much better, and saves lives by millions (not only saving lives, but reducing slow, painful death and illness), but it has a chance of being related to a rare freak accident, it's a total no go. We rather go on with our habits of killing ourselves and each other slowly and painfully.

We need to remember that almost all great inventions that ended up improving our quality of life and our health have a history of many "dangerous" experiments, and taking risks.

Don't take massive risks. Don't do stupid things that are likely to cause an accident, with little gain. But, trying to eliminate all risks completely never works, and people who pretend to do that usually have a massive oversight about risk sources million times more severe. So, take some risks carefully. Analyze and learn, instead of freaking out...
« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 08:50:14 am by Siwastaja »
 

Online wraper

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #47 on: November 25, 2018, 10:31:54 am »
Is that sample group statistically relevant in size and adjusted for car age and class, which should impact the level of maintenance?

Exactly. This is what makes the comparison difficult, and why we see numbers ranging between "the incident rate is about the same" to "EVs are ten times more safe".
https://electrek.co/2018/09/11/tesla-fleet-9-billion-electric-miles-revolution/
And only very small number of them experiences fire, usually after mechanically damaging battery. While there are 253 million cars and trucks total in US with average age 11.4 years. 170 thousands = 0.068% of them burns annually. If we assume that average lifetime is 20 years, you have 1,36% chance that your ICE car will burn during it's lifetime. Order of magnitude less chance to burn, is just to say it humbly, actually this number is higher.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 10:36:06 am by wraper »
 

Online wraper

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #48 on: November 25, 2018, 10:54:18 am »
The problem isn't the gasoline but the flammability of the interior. Besides that the fire/heat won't kill you but the smoke will. The gasoline is safely contained within the fuel line and the fuel tank (which is outside the passenger compartment for obvious reasons). This doesn't mean a fire in the engine bay can't reach the interior but it is not like burning gasoline is sprayed into the interior.
This. All the Vauxhall Zafiras that burned started in the dashboard due to an electrical fault (and far too much flammable plastics around), not because of fuel leaks or anything related to the fuel itself.

Yep.
Open statistics PDF I linked. Also how about Ford Kuga/Escape with fire coming from engine? Not to say that if ICE cars cannot get their electric part made right, does not negate the fact that electric cars are safer.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: Ever wondered just safe electric cars are, like Tesla for instance.
« Reply #49 on: November 25, 2018, 11:00:10 am »
Some CO2 and foam is all you need to extinguish a fuel fire, not so for a li-ion fire. Anddd, you can drop a lit match on a buck of gas-oil and it won't burst into flames.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 11:02:54 am by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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