A working colony on the moon is vastly easier because of the distance, and most likely financially viable through tourism.
A sustainable colony on Mars is a pipe dream, and I'm a huge proponent of going to mars.
And, I think most people are missing Musk's point and objectives.
Does he say what he says because he is delusional, or because it's the only way of getting enough funds for his projects?
We probably have to ask ourselves who is really being delusional here. As he failed to get those funds so far? Not really.
While I do agree it's delusional, back in the day when they were talking about going to the moon people thought the same thing, I think that's where the word "lunatic" comes from.
So honestly I'm willing to give him the chance and see if he can really make it happen. I don't think it will happen any time soon but I think we will live to see it.
Most of the issues are readily knowable, there is little mystery in terms of how stupidly hard it is make a colony happen if you actually look at the logistics and engineering instead of the dream.
Simple basic things like calculating food requirements alone for a small colony make you throw your hands up.
I could happen through shear brute force of sending so much stuff and supplies from earth, but no one is going to pay for that, not even Elon.
No bucks, no Buck Rogers.
A working colony on the moon is vastly easier because of the distance, and most likely financially viable through tourism.
A sustainable colony on Mars is a pipe dream, and I'm a huge proponent of going to mars.
How do you make advanced things like chips or solar cells from scratch for example.
So yeah the more you start to think of all the logistics involved the more crazy it really gets. But somehow, I think it's still going to happen. I think it will be a return mission though. They'll send people there for a couple months and then they will come back. The logistics of that seem slightly simpler than actually leaving them there.
And yeah I feel they would want to do the moon first as a pilot project. I wonder if that is the next step after they retire the ISS.
Come to think of it the feasibility of this whole thing could make a great video.
Before we can make portable machines which can generate power ICs and mid range processors and memory, manufactured from local materials sourced on Mars, I mean the entire chain from mining, refining to printing, including the ability to manufacture the machinery to do so, there will not be a true separate self-sufficient Mars colony.
We are a few centuries away from being able to properly achieve this.
Before we can make portable machines which can generate power ICs and mid range processors and memory, manufactured from local materials sourced on Mars, I mean the entire chain from mining, refining to printing, including the ability to manufacture the machinery to do so, there will not be a true separate self-sufficient Mars colony.
We are a few centuries away from being able to properly achieve this.I agree. I estimate you'd need around 1 billion people living on Mars for a high-tech society to be sustainable on an economic level. Nobody can afford using chips which aren't made by the millions.
Another problem is that Mars doesn't have an atmosphere and the magnetic field to protect the atmosphere. Living there and growing crops is going to be very hard. Mars just isn't like earth. The way I see it, it is mighty interesting to have boots on the ground on Mars in order to research if and what kind of life is/was there and a self-sustaining bio-dome is a good (probably the only) way to keep people alive but it will always be tethered to earth.
Creating structures that are sizes of sport fields or large sport halls that are hermetic and Mars proof is not very realistic, especially with no infrastructure in place.
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But Mars, no one, and I mean practially no one is going to pay to spend a miserable 6 months in space to get to Mars, be mostly bored shitless for several months once the novelty wears off, and then another 6 miserable month back to earth. When a much more exiting trip to the moon with a vastly greater visual experince (seeing the earth from the surface, bouncing around etc) can be had on a moon trip that takes a week there and back. No contest. You won't be able to fund Mars.
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An attempt to climb Mt. Everest costs roughly US$50,000 (but can go over US$100,000) per person and most people don't do it on the first attempt. Add to that another US$100,000 in experience-gathering climbs (Kilimanjaro, Mt. Blanc, Elbrus, Aconcagua, various Base Camps etc) plus years of physical training / eating right / maintaining excellent health. The whole thing takes 2-3 months. Still, more than 1000 people do it every year.
I'd bet there would be enough people up for a Mars trip. In-flight entertainment might be necessary :|.
And, I think most people are missing Musk's point and objectives.
Does he say what he says because he is delusional, or because it's the only way of getting enough funds for his projects?
We probably have to ask ourselves who is really being delusional here. As he failed to get those funds so far? Not really.
His mars plans have had zero impact on contracts the company has won. It's because he has cheap-ish rockets.
The latest moon contract SpaceX won was because their bid was half price of the competitors.
Before we can make portable machines which can generate power ICs and mid range processors and memory, manufactured from local materials sourced on Mars, I mean the entire chain from mining, refining to printing, including the ability to manufacture the machinery to do so, there will not be a true separate self-sufficient Mars colony.
We are a few centuries away from being able to properly achieve this.I agree. I estimate you'd need around 1 billion people living on Mars for a high-tech society to be sustainable on an economic level. Nobody can afford using chips which aren't made by the millions.
Another problem is that Mars doesn't have an atmosphere and the magnetic field to protect the atmosphere. Living there and growing crops is going to be very hard. Mars just isn't like earth. The way I see it, it is mighty interesting to have boots on the ground on Mars in order to research if and what kind of life is/was there and a self-sustaining bio-dome is a good (probably the only) way to keep people alive but it will always be tethered to earth.
Not to mention that people got crazy when their life outside was partially limited with corona quaranteens.
Imagine asking people to live in closed, small, cramped habitats for the rest of their lives. Huge domes and force fields that create atmosphere bubbles over the whole city from SciFi movies are not real.
Creating structures that are sizes of sport fields or large sport halls that are hermetic and Mars proof is not very realistic, especially with no infrastructure in place.
I'd bet there would be enough people up for a Mars trip. In-flight entertainment might be necessary :|.
I'm curious how they managed to spend $80 Million on a toy helicopter, I mean that's about 80 times the price of a brand new full-scale Bell Jet Ranger helicopter. I know anything space related is expensive, but I'm shocked they managed to spend more than a million on it and even that sounds outlandish to me.
You can already book boat cruises which last many months so I guess people who are not easely bored do exist.
You can already book boat cruises which last many months so I guess people who are not easely bored do exist.
Typically not cramped into a tiny little capsule. Even sailing the open ocean in a modest sailboat you are free to sit out on the deck and enjoy the fresh air, you're not sealed into an enclosed ship, and if disaster strikes you are only a day or so from rescue by satellite distress beacon. Not only that, when you do finally get somewhere at the end of the trip, you're still on a planet where you can live outside of a sealed structure.
An attempt to climb Mt. Everest costs roughly US$50,000 (but can go over US$100,000) per person and most people don't do it on the first attempt. Add to that another US$100,000 in experience-gathering climbs (Kilimanjaro, Mt. Blanc, Elbrus, Aconcagua, various Base Camps etc) plus years of physical training / eating right / maintaining excellent health. The whole thing takes 2-3 months. Still, more than 1000 people do it every year.
I'd bet there would be enough people up for a Mars trip. In-flight entertainment might be necessary :|.
And, I think most people are missing Musk's point and objectives.
Does he say what he says because he is delusional, or because it's the only way of getting enough funds for his projects?
We probably have to ask ourselves who is really being delusional here. As he failed to get those funds so far? Not really.
His mars plans have had zero impact on contracts the company has won. It's because he has cheap-ish rockets.
The latest moon contract SpaceX won was because their bid was half price of the competitors.
There's little relationship between the contracts they won and the overall funding they got (there is of course in a way, because that shows investors they can get results). SpaceX could not invest as much money as they already have if they just relied on selling services.
https://craft.co/spacex/funding-rounds
To get that much funding, you need to know how to, and whatever one may think about Musk, he clearly knows.