When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[Kjelt]

In our country it is not even allowed to store large quantities of petrol in house due to safety and fire regulations.
I am not sure where the boundary is but if you store for instance a 1000 litres petrol in your garage and fire breaks out I am pretty sure you only get a middlefinger from your insurance company.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Of course not in a flat, but many/most detached houses have a rather big one for heating (fuel/gasoil).

[coppice]

Of course not in a flat, but many/most detached houses have a rather big one for heating (fuel/gasoil).

Heating oil is much less problematic than gasoline. Its far harder to get it burning aggressively. Even so, In most places I have seen oil heated houses, the oil tank is well separated from the buidlings.

[nctnico]

In our country it is not even allowed to store large quantities of petrol in house due to safety and fire regulations.
I am not sure where the boundary is but if you store for instance a 1000 litres petrol in your garage and fire breaks out I am pretty sure you only get a middlefinger from your insurance company.

When I was a kid we had heaters which burned oil (in a city!) and every now and then the oil man came to refill the tanks in the back of the garden.

[mtdoc]

In the US, heating oil tanks are only common in a few locales.  Most homes are heated with electricity, nat gas, or propane..

As stated, heating oil is much easier to store safely. In the US, home gasoline storage is usually limited to 25 gallons.

In addition, there are air pollution regulations on gasoline vapor control and recovery for farmers and others who are allowed to store and dispense large quantities of gasoline or diesel.

In order for home refuelling of an ICE to be as convenient as home refuelling of an EV, owners would have to be able to store many hundreds of gallons of liquid fuel and have a system for unattended refuelling of their vehicle as well as automatic refilling of their large home storage tank. Even if such a sytem was feasible (its not) it would be very expensive.

It’s amazing ICE vehicle owners are willing to tolerate the inconveniences they must endure to refuel their vehicle.   

[ebastler]

When I was a kid we had heaters which burned oil (in a city!) and every now and then the oil man came to refill the tanks in the back of the garden.

That does not sound too exotic to me. In Germany, oil heating still has slightly above 25% market share. Natural gas has 50%, electricity incl. heat pumps below 5%: https://de.statista.com/infografik/11385/art-der-heizung-und-zum-heizen-genutzte-energietraeger/

At my place, we just decomissioned our oil heating a couple of years ago and switched to gas. The 5000 litre oil tank used to be in the basement, by the way; a common arrangement here. Originally welded together in situ from steel plates when the tank was installed. 

[DougSpindler]

Out here in California we sore galloline in glass jars and sore them on top of our natural gas powered water heaters.  Out here in California we have earthquakes, really big earthquakes.  Due to the high costs for earthquake insurance we have found storing a gallon or two of gasoline in a glass jars on top of the water water just at the edge is best.  We alway check to make sure the pilot light and our fire insurance policies are large and paid.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

 Well done!

[ahbushnell]

Most homes are heated with electricity, not gas, or propane..

Not true.  I'm sure that may be true where you live.  In Southern California there are many home heated with gas.  And in the country with propane. 

[mtdoc]

Most homes are heated with electricity, not gas, or propane..

Not true.  I'm sure that may be true where you live.  In Southern California there are many home heated with gas.  And in the country with propane.

OOPS typo! I meant Nat gas, not not gas (fixed now).  So I meant electricity, Nat Gas or propane - all 3 are common.

I lived in California the fisrt 34 years of my life.  I’ve lived in Vermont, Maine and Montana and currently live in Washington. In all those places, the only place, I’ve seen heating oils is in older homes in Vermont and Maine.

[DougSpindler]

I live in California, SF Bay Area.  My home was built in the early 1950s and was heated with heating oil.  We still have a 150 - 250 gallon tank in our front yard.  Not sure when but as the city grew natural gas lines were installed to all the Homes.   And I know in San Francisco homes still have light fixtures which have natural gas lines running to them.

There was a time when light from the burning of natural gas was thought to be best for reading and light from electricity would damage our eyes and was only used to light the room.

Was that before science or great marketing?

[Miyuki]

Here is cheapest way to heat coal as big part of country lay on coal deposits
And state even support it for home heating in automatic boilers (yes and if you get boiler with state support they can acces you house  )

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Hey, EV fanboys, look, it occurs to me that the day you can shove Joules in at 30 kWh/minute into your batteries, will be the day the EVs became definitely better than ICEs. That's just 1800 kW, or 1.8 MW (compare that to the ICE's current ~ 24MW). Just Do It (TM) and people will begin to want to buy EVs in flocks.

And, BTW, there was an easy way to achieve that right now, only that manufacturers have refused to implement it... (battery swaps)

[DougSpindler]

Hey, EV fanboys, look, it occurs to me that the day you can shove Joules in at 30 kWh/minute into your batteries, will be the day the EVs became definitely better than ICEs. That's just 1800 kW, or 1.8 MW (compare that to the ICE's current ~ 24MW). Just Do It (TM) and people will begin to want to buy EVs in flocks.

And, BTW, there was an easy way to achieve that right now, only that manufacturers have refused to implement it...

Hey Lover of fossil fuels.....   For many people, not everyone an EV would be fine and an excellent replacement for an ICE.  For others they wi never be able to enjoy the benefits of and EV and are stuck with an ICE.

There once was aa concept car which would allow for 5,000 miles before refueling.  By your definition “better” I guest that would be even a better car.  And it did not produce any greenhouse gasses.  But power a can like powering an aircraft with nuclear fuel turned out to be not so popular.

Can I ask why you are such a fan boy of ICEs?  The pollute, are noisy, have stinky exhaust with cause health problems for many people.  What’s your objectiion of some people liking EVs?    Have you even drive an EV?  Certainly is a lot more fun to drive than an ICE. 

[nctnico]

Have you even drive an EV?  Certainly is a lot more fun to drive than an ICE.

I think you just realised what many already knew: EVs are toys. 

Seriously: after looking at the economics and technology required to have EVs driving around on a large scale I'm quite sure EVs will never become mainstream. The cost of manufacturing alone will make them unaffordable for the masses. And EVs will always be more expensive compared to ICE based cars because EVs will always be more heavier than a comparable car with an ICE. More material = more mining/recycling + more energy + more processing = more expensive. In short EVs are not the solution for reducing CO2 output.

[ebastler]

For many people, not everyone an EV would be fine and an excellent replacement for an ICE.  For others they will never be able to enjoy the benefits of and EV and are stuck with an ICE.

At the moment, EVs seem to be gaining some traction with people who

• use a car to drive relatively short distances (commute or city driving), where one charge lasts for at least a day,
• have a home where the garage or parking space can be outfitted with a private charging connector, and
• own a second car with a combustion engine, for long trips.

Is that the group you had in mind?

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Can I ask why you are such a fan boy of ICEs?  The pollute, are noisy, have stinky exhaust with cause health problems for many people.  What’s your objectiion of some people liking EVs?    Have you even drive an EV?  Certainly is a lot more fun to drive than an ICE.

I have an EV and I like it, it's a nice machine, I know its virtues and limitations, but I'm not a green/EV religious fanboy/zealot.

And above all, I am very aware of the immense benefits that fossil fuels have brought us, something that EV fanboys seem to deny or simply ignore.

[wraper]

And above all, I am very aware of the immense benefits that fossil fuels have brought us, something that EV fanboys seem to deny or simply ignore.

I am very aware of the immense benefits electron tubes have brought us. So why we don't still use them except small number of fanboys?

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Because they've been obsoleted by something that's better in every sense?

[Kjelt]

Seriously: after looking at the economics and technology required to have EVs driving around on a large scale I'm quite sure EVs will never become mainstream.

For the coming decade(s) I agree but "never" is so absolute, perhaps in a few hundred years they have a Futureobtanium battery weighing 50kgs with an energy of 1MWh.
You never know what will pop up out of the R&D labs, but for now the future of EV is dim and for hybrids is bright.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!

[wraper]

Because they've been obsoleted by something that's better in every sense?

Exactly, that's why your previous argument does not have practical meaning. What becomes obsolete gets phased out, regardless of the benefits it brought in the past.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Only that EVs aren't better in every sense, if they were nobody would be arguing here now.

[nctnico]

That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!

Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!

Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.

I'm a bit skeptic, and I'm not sure I'd like to see the earth covered in "fuel weeds". Jeez, fossil fuels are such a heavens gift, it's going to be hard to find a proper substitute, one that's as good.