When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[boffin]

EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.

100 years ago I'm sure you were saying that ICE cars aren't a drop-in replacement for horses as well.

Is there a change required in behaviours?  Sure
Is it worth it in the long term? Yes

[nctnico]

EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.

100 years ago I'm sure you were saying that ICE cars aren't a drop-in replacement for horses as well.

Comparing ICE cars to horses  But if you want to go that route I'd say an EV is more like a horse. It can only run for short periods and then needs a long rest.

[DougSpindler]

Nice video, thanks for posting.  One point the "expert" made which I don't agree with.   How is it an ICE car uses more gas in the winter to warm the engine then when it's warmer.  Seems to me it would be the same or even less.  An ICE is trying to dissipate heat.  If it's colder outside then it doesn't have to work as hard to dissipate the heat. 

[mtdoc]

But this is just a single data point. I travel a lot all across Europe and the common feature of most homes is that they are on a small piece of land. And I'm not talking about city centres but the suburbs. In general land is expensive in Europe so people are not going to waste that on parking space if they can park for free on the street.

You keep repeating this nonsense about people in Europe not having a place to charge an EV but it is still not true. I've travelled extensively in Europe for as long as 8 months at a time and there are very large suburbs surrounding every large city center and there are many suburban type areas scattered across the countryside.  It may be true that the average lot size of a European suburban home is smaller than those in the US but this nonsense you keep repeating about people in Europe not being able charge an EV is just not true no matter how many times you say it.  Suburban and countryside homes in Europe have driveways and often garages just like the homes in North America do.  If anything, the lack of wide open uninhabited spaces and close proximity of most people to a town or city center means that EV are even more sensible in Europe than they are in many parts of North America.   Anyone can pull up Google maps and confirm this for themselves. 

Another advantage of Europe for EV adoption is that European countries generally have better social systems and attitudes regarding community infrastructure development. This means that build out of community charging stations will be easier to achieve.   

EVs are well suited to Europe and the rapid rise of EV adoption in Europe confirms this. See pic below. 

EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.

Straw Man. No one is saying that.



From Europe EV Sales:

[gildasd]

...
Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
...

Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

Lastly, You are kidding, right?
From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?

You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV. And even if people have their own driveway it will only fit 1 car so how about charging the second car at the same time? All in all charging at home is a big no-go in Europe. The Dutch Automobile Association (RAI) has estimated that the NL needs 3 million public charging spots for EVs to be viable. That is more than 1 charging spot per 3 cars.

I have family in France, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland and England.
Only my mother who has a flat on the edge of the Old Nice would struggle to home charge.
These are people living in the countryside, suburbia and inner cities.

Of all the places I have lived (28 moves in 40 years),

But this is just a single data point. I travel a lot all across Europe and the common feature of most homes is that they are on a small piece of land. And I'm not talking about city centres but the suburbs. In general land is expensive in Europe so people are not going to waste that on parking space if they can park for free on the street. But even if charging at home isn't a problem there are still plenty of other reasons an EV isn't suitable. EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.

Yeah, duh, nobody with half a working brain cell is saying that EV are a drop in for all ICE.
I know I am a single data point, but I also travel a lot ( it’s sorta kinda my job) and my eyes are open.
We may disagree, but try to refrain from considering us (and me) as total dumboes.

looking at my extended family data point, at the state of EV’s (Bolt & Leaf) today, about 70% could replace their IC’s in the short term with no lifestyle change, for the rest, the tech is not there / not affordable yet.

And this comes from somebody who loves IC, I work on engines EVERY DAY, and when I finish my house I am definitely putting a turbo on a CB250 (don’t question the sanity of that) and getting a project car, mostprobably a CX.

[coppice]

You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV.

We've covered this ground before. There are densely populated cities in the US and Canada as well. It's also a fact that cities here and in Europe are surrounded by suburbs and countryside.  That is where the use of automobiles is highest.  Those living in densely populated city centers without a parking spot either do not own automobiles or if they do, they drive them infrequently (for obvious reasons!).  For many that is a good thing and is one reason why they choose to live in a city center.

It is a fact that European cities are mostly surrounded by suburbs where most people do not have a driveway, do have a lot of cars, and park them in the street. There are endless miles of bumper to bumper cars parked around Europe's suburban streets at night, when most people are at home. Charging many of them is fixable, but requires regulation changes to allow a little kerb space to be used for a charging station outside each house. Without that, people can only get power to within a metre or two of the car which needs it. Telecoms has the last mile problem. Car charging has the last metre problem.

[gildasd]

You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV.

We've covered this ground before. There are densely populated cities in the US and Canada as well. It's also a fact that cities here and in Europe are surrounded by suburbs and countryside.  That is where the use of automobiles is highest.  Those living in densely populated city centers without a parking spot either do not own automobiles or if they do, they drive them infrequently (for obvious reasons!).  For many that is a good thing and is one reason why they choose to live in a city center.

It is a fact that European cities are mostly surrounded by suburbs where most people do not have a driveway, do have a lot of cars, and park them in the street. There are endless miles of bumper to bumper cars parked around Europe's suburban streets at night, when most people are at home. Charging many of them is fixable, but requires regulation changes to allow a little kerb space to be used for a charging station outside each house. Without that, people can only get power to within a metre or two of the car which needs it. Telecoms has the last mile problem. Car charging has the last metre problem.

One of my co-workers is in that predicament.
The town where he lives in the Netherlands installs a personal charging spot in front of his house if buys an EV (not sure how this is set up).
He was seriously thinking about it, but having to rent a car every-time he goes to Italy was too inconvenient...
So he got a second hand Hybrid that has nearly the same tax advantages, long range but no private night parking in front of his house.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Cars in the streets:
http://google.com/search?q=cars+parked+in+the+street+in+europe&tbm=isch

European cities:
http://google.com/search?q=european+city&tbm=isch

[gildasd]

Cars in the streets:
http://google.com/search?q=cars+parked+in+the+street+in+europe&tbm=isch

European cities:
http://www.google.com/search?q=european+city&tbm=isch

When I lived in Paris, owning car was not possible.
At most I got driven by a friend in a car or rented the Club's van for a day or two.
And then it was a last option because getting fuel, parking and general waste of time.
Even a folding cargo bike would not fit in most lifts...

Paris is great city, but some of the details are a real pain.

[mtdoc]

When I lived in Paris, owning car was not possible.
At most I got driven by a friend in a car or rented the Club's van for a day or two.
And then it was a last option because getting fuel, parking and general waste of time.
Even a folding cargo bike would not fit in most lifts...

Paris is great city, but some of the details are a real pain.

And that was the point I was trying to make. Sure, Europe has a much lower rate of car ownership than the US and Canada because yes, there are more places were any car ownership ICE or EV is more difficult (though plenty of those kind of places also exist in US city centers). Those places also have walkable neighborhoods and good public transport by necessity.   But there also are plenty of suburban and countryside homes in Europe where automobile ownership is easy and common and with off street parking. (As is your experience). Anyone can pull up Google map images of places in Europe that show either situation. It’s exactly because rates of car ownership correlate with ease of parking that the rate of ICE to EV conversion will correlate with rates of car ownership - and NOT with percentage of homes with parking.

There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

But everybody wants a car, and every family has at least one, regardless of whether they use it everyday in the city or not.

[coppice]

There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.

You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

[mtdoc]

every family has at least one

I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.

[coppice]

every family has at least one

I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.

There aren't many suburban homes in Western European countries which don't have a car. Central city locations often have very low car ownership, but most people are in the suburbs.

[mtdoc]

There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.

You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

It’s a matter of degree isn’t it? What does “minority of cases mean”?  in all the major European cities i’ve been in (which is most of them) the farther you get out from the city center the more prevelant private parking is.  And in the smaller cities is not even that far. I lived for 3 month in England in 1989 near Bath and IIRC this was true in most af that area - even around Bristol.

 My point is that there are many, many places in Europe where private parking is common, just as there are many places in the US where private parking is not. And in the US it is not only city centers. Where I grew up in California private parking anywhere near the beach is also rare in several beach city neighborhoods with high density housing.  Those are not places where the “2 cars per household” norm is prevelent. IOW rates of car ownership are directly proportional to ease of parking.

[DougSpindler]

every family has at least one

I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.

I am so confident you are wrong I will take your bet.  If as you say almost no one had a car why are most of the major cities in Europe having traffic congesting problems?  Why in Germarny and other countries installing parking racks and car elevators to park cars in no one has a car?

[mtdoc]

every family has at least one

I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.

There aren't many suburban homes in Western European countries which don't have a car. Central city locations often have very low car ownership, but most people are in the suburbs.

Agreed. Though in southern Europe, I’ve been in several small villages (not cities) where car ownership seemed to be very low.

The question is do rates of car onwership correlate with ease of parking?  It seems to me an obvious point that it does and the lower rates of car ownership in Europe compared to the USA would suggest it does.

[mtdoc]

every family has at least one

I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.

I am so confident you are wrong I will take your bet.  If as you say almost no one had a car why are most of the major cities in Europe having traffic congesting problems?  Why in Germarny and other countries installing parking racks and car elevators to park cars in no one has a car?

As is your norm. You've either completely missed the point or are just trolling.

1)  I never said "almost no one had a car".  I did say the rate of car ownership is lower.  Big difference.
2)  It's obvious to anyone with even rudimentary reasoning skills that in a large densely populated city, even relatively low rates of car ownership will result in huge parking problems and traffic problems (much of which is due from cars coming and going from outside the city BTW).

[DougSpindler]

There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.

You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

It’s a matter of degree isn’t it? What does “minority of cases mean”?  in all the major European cities i’ve been in (which is most of them) the farther you get out from the city center the more prevelant private parking is.  And in the smaller cities is not even that far. I lived for 3 month in England in 1989 near Bath and IIRC this was true in most af that area - even around Bristol.

 My point is that there are many, many places in Europe where private parking is common, just as there are many places in the US where private parking is not. And in the US it is not only city centers. Where I grew up in California private parking anywhere near the beach is also rare in several beach city neighborhoods with high density housing.  Those are not places where the “2 cars per household” norm is prevelent. IOW rates of car ownership are directly proportional to ease of parking.

Dude you are taking almost 30 years or almost 2 generations ago.  You are talking cold war era, there was a Berlin wall and Europe was divided.  In 1989 the world population was just over 5 billion, right now we have almost 8 billion.  You statements make me wonder if you think none of those 3 billion new people would be own a car.  Or if any of the people already living in Eastern Europe purchased a car.  In just 10 years between 1908-1927 Ford alone sole 15 million cars.  And between 1945 and 2003 VW sold 21.5 million VW Beetles.

[mtdoc]

There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.

You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

It’s a matter of degree isn’t it? What does “minority of cases mean”?  in all the major European cities i’ve been in (which is most of them) the farther you get out from the city center the more prevelant private parking is.  And in the smaller cities is not even that far. I lived for 3 month in England in 1989 near Bath and IIRC this was true in most af that area - even around Bristol.

 My point is that there are many, many places in Europe where private parking is common, just as there are many places in the US where private parking is not. And in the US it is not only city centers. Where I grew up in California private parking anywhere near the beach is also rare in several beach city neighborhoods with high density housing.  Those are not places where the “2 cars per household” norm is prevelent. IOW rates of car ownership are directly proportional to ease of parking.

Dude you are taking almost 30 years or almost 2 generations ago.

Yet easily confirmed to still be true with a quick perusal of Google maps.  Pic below is from Bishopston, just 2.6 miles from Bristol city center. This is not an anomaly - there are many square kilometers of similar neighborhoods surrounding Bristol  (and most other European cities) - see second picture. Are there other neighborhoods without off street parking? yes of course - especially closer to city centers - I've never disputed that.

  In 1989 the world population was just over 5 billion, right now we have almost 8 billion. 

   How many of those 3 billion where added to the already built out suburbs around European cities? Answer - very few. (BTW Englands population has increased by only by about 10 Million in the last 30 years). 

The large increases in world population over the past 30 years have almost exclusively occurred in the developing world.  You likely already know that and are again just trolling.



The entire area surrounding the center of Bristol is suburbs mostly with homes having off street parking. Even with this distant view - those areas are pretty well dilineated.

[DougSpindler]

There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.

You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

It’s a matter of degree isn’t it? What does “minority of cases mean”?  in all the major European cities i’ve been in (which is most of them) the farther you get out from the city center the more prevelant private parking is.  And in the smaller cities is not even that far. I lived for 3 month in England in 1989 near Bath and IIRC this was true in most af that area - even around Bristol.

 My point is that there are many, many places in Europe where private parking is common, just as there are many places in the US where private parking is not. And in the US it is not only city centers. Where I grew up in California private parking anywhere near the beach is also rare in several beach city neighborhoods with high density housing.  Those are not places where the “2 cars per household” norm is prevelent. IOW rates of car ownership are directly proportional to ease of parking.

Dude you are taking almost 30 years or almost 2 generations ago.

Yet easily confirmed to still be true with a quick perusal of Google maps.  Pic below is from Bishopston, just 2.6 miles from Bristol city center. This is not an anomoly - there are many square kilometers of similar neighborhoods surrounding Bristol (and most other European cities). Are there other neiborhoods without off street parking? yes of course - especially closer to city centers - I've never disputed that.

  In 1989 the world population was just over 5 billion, right now we have almost 8 billion. 

   How many of those 3 billion where added to the already built out suburbs around European cities? Answer - very few. (BTW Englands population has increased by only by about 10 Million in the last 30 years). 

The large increases in world population over the past 30 years have almost exclusively occurred in the developing world.  You either already know that or are again just trolling.

Dude why are so quick to call me a toll again?  I though you and I agreed to have a civil discussion without name calling to share each others point of view.  You will never convince me or anyone else of what you are saying by using using insults.  Hope you don't treat your wife, kids or co-workers this way.

If you have a counter argument please present it without insusts like everyone else is doing in the forum.

[mtdoc]

Dude why are so quick to call me a toll again?

I believe in calling out trolls. If you don't want to be called one, don't be trollish. It took me seeing your same behavior repeated over and over in this thread and others before I used that word.  I use it sparingly. In my 5+ years on this forum I have only called 2-3 people trolls. You are one of them.

If you have a counter argument please present it without insusts like everyone else is doing in the forum.

The difference is that others - even though I may strongly disagree with them - are not acting trollish.  Even George and nctnico who I have strong disagreements with in this thread, make their arguments in a relevant fashion and provide room for rational discussion. You, not so much.  Also, they both offer lots of positive contributions to this forum in other areas where their knowledge vastly exceeds mine. You, not so much.

This conversation is more appropriate for PMs if that is something you wish to pursue.
I'll do my best to ignore your trolling,  but I will not refrain from continuing to  point out factual errors (or fact free assertions) - and sometimes call out trolling when I see it.

[DougSpindler]

Dude why are so quick to call me a toll again?

I believe in calling out trolls. If you don't want to be called one, don't be trollish. It took me seeing your same behavior repeated over and over in this thread and others before I used that word.  I use it sparingly. In my 5+ years on this forum I have only called 2-3 people trolls. You are one of them.

If you have a counter argument please present it without insusts like everyone else is doing in the forum.

The difference is that others - even though I may strongly disagree with them - are not acting trollish.  Even George and nctnico who I have strong disagreements with in this thread, make their arguments in a relevant fashion and provide room for rational discussion. You, not so much.  Also, they both offer lots of positive contributions to this forum in other areas where their knowledge vastly exceeds mine. You, not so much.

This conversation is more appropriate for PMs if that is something you wish to pursue.
I'll do my best to ignore your trolling,  but I will not refrain from continuing to  point out factual errors (or fact free assertions).

Thank you - Feel free to point out any factual errors I post.  I know I certianly ponited them out in your posts.

Now what were we discussing.

[DougSpindler]

Interesting comparison between EVs/Tesla's and EVs with fuel cells powered by Hydrogen. 

Hydrogen wins when it comes to refueling times.  About the same as ICE. +1
Range of a Hyrogen is about the same as
Hydrogen doesn't produce greenhouse gasses just like EVs.  +1

When it comes to cost EV fuel cell cars are muche more expensive than EV or ICE.  And if elctricty prices continuing to rise cost to power either an ICE or EV isn't that much different.  As much as I like my EV, it's looking like energy cost per mile for gasoline or EV is about the same.  If people are going to use the line EV's are chearper, energy cost per mile to power the vehicle looks like that's not true.  Especially when temperatures drop below freezing.   

[boffin]

If people are going to use the line EV's are chearper, energy cost per mile to power the vehicle looks like that's not true. 

How many times are you going to spout this lie?

I've shown, on multiple occasions the per-mile fuel cost of EVs are less than 1/2 (and 1/8 in my locale) versus that of ICE vehicles, in various jurisdictions.