Musk may be delusional. But his delusions have led to what many would agree is the best electric car on the planet. And also to the only successful new car startup in North America in over 75 years. And the most cost effective system to orbit by what is probably a factor of five, and definitely by a factor of two or more. And got the US back into manned space virtually on schedule, and at least a year and a half ahead of a major legacy space company at significantly lower cost. And is delivering the best internet to rural areas by far.
Maybe we should all be a bit delusional. All of these things have defects, as does everything else in the world from the UN to the iPhone. There is no arguing that they have positive aspects as well.
Musk may be delusional. But his delusions have led to what many would agree is the best electric car on the planet.
The other bidders on the contract have filed a formal complaint (which has stopped the funding), and in their written complaint their argument is that SpaceX won because they underbid the contract, and they weren't given a chance to re-cost it.
"Perseverance rover is projected to cost $2.7 billion dollars, of which $2.2 billion was for spacecraft development, $243 million for launch services, and approximately $300 million for operations and scientific analysis for its 2-year primary mission. The Ingenuity helicopter cost an additional $80 million to build and $5 million to operate during its 1-month mission."
https://www.planetary.org/space-policy/cost-of-perseverance
Thinking we have the cash and technology to get people to Mars - seems delusional. There's no gold there, that we know of.
Tesla has nothing to do with delusion, it was just smart business, tenacity, muscling in on an existing company, and a bit of luck. Once again Tesla was very close to failure at one point.
The delusional ideas predictably fail, the standard practical business ideas have won.
People here keep saying Tesla cars were absolutely nothing new, do you even remember or know how EVs were designed before Tesla stepped up to the plate? Horrible, ugly, weak and slow little cars with poor range (sound like a familiar description of EVs?). They were cars that all but a select few would want for environmental reasons let alone practical reasons. EVs were B team projects done as throw away efforts to satisfy political/government pressure: see
"Perseverance rover is projected to cost $2.7 billion dollars, of which $2.2 billion was for spacecraft development, $243 million for launch services, and approximately $300 million for operations and scientific analysis for its 2-year primary mission. The Ingenuity helicopter cost an additional $80 million to build and $5 million to operate during its 1-month mission."
https://www.planetary.org/space-policy/cost-of-perseverance
Thinking we have the cash and technology to get people to Mars - seems delusional. There's no gold there, that we know of.
You can't compare NASA and SpaceX in terms of the price to get stuff done.
They use fundamentally different approaches for very different reasons.
NASA spend an absurd amount of money and an equally absurd amount of time planning, simulating and testing every tiny part beforehand so that the mission works first time. Every bolt, screw and nut has a corresponding 50+ page report someone was paid to create to prove that it will handle all the loading that it will be under at all points during the mission.
NASA do that because their funding comes from the government and from peoples taxes. When a NASA rocket explodes the general public cry out that it's a waste of money and NASA's funding gets cut next year.
With NASA everything must be perfect first time and that is hideously expensive.
NASA is terrified of failures.
SpaceX however is totally different. They're approach is more 'trail and error'.
SpaceX throw a new rocket together in a month, sometimes built in a tent, and launch it to see what happens. When it explodes they look at why and update the future design to fix the issue.
This gives SpaceX something like a 10x faster development cycle for vastly less money.
It's actually ironic that NASA wastes so much money because, if they tried to save money, people would complain that they are wasting money.
People here keep saying Tesla cars were absolutely nothing new, do you even remember or know how EVs were designed before Tesla stepped up to the plate? Horrible, ugly, weak and slow little cars with poor range (sound like a familiar description of EVs?). They were cars that all but a select few would want for environmental reasons let alone practical reasons. EVs were B team projects done as throw away efforts to satisfy political/government pressure: seeBut very little can be attributed to Tesla (the car maker). Technology moves forward allowing all manufacturers to make better products. Just look at how mobile phones have evolved. And one very important electric car is missing from your list: the Toyota Prius. Toyota has already sold 10 million hybrid electric cars by 2017. So who is the most succesful electric car maker? It ain't Tesla, not by a long shot. Don't fall for the hype.
And as I wrote before: Tesla is much hyped. If people have a choice then they don't buy Teslas. In the Netherlands (one of the very few mature electric vehicle markets on the world) VW is outselling Tesla 4 to 1 nowadays. EV sales as a whole have risen but Tesla sales have plummeted.
So far as Telsa having zero innovative tech, have you never heard of the mega castings? have you seen/analysed the radically different battery pack construction and architecture? the tab-less battery design (not yet delivered)? not to mention the more controversial autonomous driving?
Tesla is successful as an EV maker because they had the vision and drive to make decent EVs that people actually want to drive and own against a great many challenges.
I'm not the one saying that Tesla hasn't innovated, although I would say that their hype-to-innovation ratio is pretty high. However, the case you make is a pretty mixed bag. Tesla didn't invent large die-castings nor the 'Giga-Press', rather they bought a customized version of an existing product and used it to make a somewhat larger portion of the car than others had previously. Other cars have used very large subframe castings, just not quite as large or comprehensive. Yes, their battery packs are configured differently than others, but IMHO their only real distinction is that they appear to have an advantage in battery chemistry, probably due to hiring Jeff Dahn. As for the rest, your phrase "not yet delivered" seems to best characterize most of Tesla's hype. FSD is a long con where success is always just around the next bend.
I would like to compare him to Edison and Bill Gates. His personality is winning and he can convince powerful people who control society that he can create a climate of hope even if the science says differently. He has managed to get NASA on his side. As far as the car thing goes, the Tesla has no innovative tech, the biggest fail is that the electric car is more efficient in warm places than cold climates due to the need to keep electrical systems at a stable operating temperature and the cabin hot and cold. IT ALSO HAS NO FUCKING SPARE TIRE.
A Toyota Prius is a "low emission" vehicle but it isn't a ZEV. It isn't even a PHEV.
As for Tesla sales plummeting
Where on earth are you getting your information from? Do you have an agenda to spread misinformation?
As for other cars using subframe castings, care to give examples?
Innovation isn't just being the one to actually invent the earliest form of a technology, its also being able to apply it to commercial success (usually requiring changes/improvements)..... Did Apple steal the concept of a "smart phone" from someone else or did they create the modern concept of a "smart phone"?
A Toyota Prius is a "low emission" vehicle but it isn't a ZEV. It isn't even a PHEV.
Well, it is a PHEV if you buy the PHEV. https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/QuoteAs for Tesla sales plummeting
Where on earth are you getting your information from? Do you have an agenda to spread misinformation?
It seems pretty clear to me that he was referring to NL not worldwide. I'm not big on predictions, but it will be interesting to see how Tesla does in the future as the competition starts to hit them directly. Up until now, they were sufficiently differentiated--mostly on the range issue--that they didn't have direct competitors.
A Toyota Prius is a "low emission" vehicle but it isn't a ZEV. It isn't even a PHEV.
Well, it is a PHEV if you buy the PHEV. https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/QuoteAs for Tesla sales plummeting
Where on earth are you getting your information from? Do you have an agenda to spread misinformation?
It seems pretty clear to me that he was referring to NL not worldwide. I'm not big on predictions, but it will be interesting to see how Tesla does in the future as the competition starts to hit them directly. Up until now, they were sufficiently differentiated--mostly on the range issue--that they didn't have direct competitors.
Now you have:
Volvo XC40 Recharge
Ford Mach E
VW ID.4
and more coming.
Yes. And the newcomers are eating away Tesla's share in the NL. Anyone following the EV news a bit knows that the NL (along with Norway) is a proving ground for many companies to introduce new EVs.
@sandalcandal: the graphs you posted underline what I wrote 100%! This website (in Dutch) https://www.autoweek.nl/verkoopcijfers/ allows to look at sales numbers at a very detailed level.
Were the "10 million hybrid electric cars by 2017" PHEVs??
Fair enough if you read it as sales in NL plummeting last year compared to 2019 but 2019 might be an outlier. Edit: The cumulative sales graph is probably more enlightening on how popular Teslas actually are in NL but nctnico lives in NL so he's probably entitled to his own observations of how popular Teslas are there.
Yeah great news for consumers and the EV market! What does that have to do with the point I was making about Tesla's historical impact?
Musk may be delusional. But his delusions have led to what many would agree is the best electric car on the planet.
His delusions have gone nowhere.
Hyperloop is
The boring company and The Loop are
What ever happened to the rocket hovering Tesla?
Even his half decent ideas (not his idea actually, many have done it before) like Solar Roof Tiles ended up predictably too expensive to be practical.
You could argue that his Mars delusion and subsequent starting of a rocket company has lead to the enornmous success that is SpaceX, but those that give him contracts don't care one rats arse about his Mars fantasy. He gets the contracts because they have made cheap rockets that work, but even that was one failure away from the entire company failing at one point.
Tesla has nothing to do with delusion, it was just smart business, tenacity, muscling in on an existing company, and a bit of luck. Once again Tesla was very close to failure at one point.
The delusional ideas predictably fail, the standard practical business ideas have won.
Will SpaceX get to mars, probably, but a colony won't happen even if it's possible. NASA only has so much budget, and SpaceX will quicly go bankrupt if it tried that without sucking on the government teet.
Were the "10 million hybrid electric cars by 2017" PHEVs??
I didn't say they were. But I would say that the Prius of any flavor is actually an EV, just not an exclusive BEV. It is electric drive and just happens to be partly or mostly powered by a gasoline generator. Deleting the gas part and installing a ton of batteries would not really be all that innovative and Toyota has explained in detail why they didn't choose to go that route. In short, given the limited supply of batteries, they could have made 10 million economically priced very-low-emission hybrids or maybe 500K very expensive "zero-emissions" BEVs. Tesla's main achievement here is coming up with a large supply of batteries.QuoteFair enough if you read it as sales in NL plummeting last year compared to 2019 but 2019 might be an outlier. Edit: The cumulative sales graph is probably more enlightening on how popular Teslas actually are in NL but nctnico lives in NL so he's probably entitled to his own observations of how popular Teslas are there.
Those graphs are actually astoundingly clear and should tell you three things. First, there is a big spike in EV sales in Q4 of each year, probably due to tax purposes. Second, Tesla captured the 2019 spike and VW captured the 2020 spike. Third, the graph tells you how popular Tesla was when they didn't have significant competition vs now when they do have competition. I don't know how supply issues factor in, I would be curious to know if someone who wants a Tesla in NL can get one right now. I guess we will have to wait for the Berlin factory to open and for Q4 2021 sales results.
I think one thing is clear: There are many people who would buy an EV but don't want a Tesla for various reasons. I'm in that camp. We own a non-Tesla EV that is not horrible, ugly, weak or slow and just barely predates the Model S. It is admittedly low range and low volume and it was quite specifically engineered to appear and drive just like a 'normal' car. People have ridden in it and not realized that is was electric. Cars are a mature technology and there are a lot of potential customers that really don't want it reinvented or revolutionized.