Tariffs

[Andy Chee]

Probably. ASML will push the kill-switch on the lithography machines at TSMC located in Taiwan and China is massively screwed because without those semiconductors they can't produce any complex electronics.

So you think the Chinese are incapable of developing that lithography on their own? They're not exactly technological cripples, you know.

BTW, ASML = Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography, for those who didn't know (like me before I looked it up)

China currently have no mass consumer manufacturing capability at that level.

If you believe otherwise, then please nominate an example of such consumer integrated circuit e.g. Intel core CPU, or whatever

Whilst China could well catch up to that level someday, I would expect Taiwan and others to  still remain well ahead.

 Closed governments are not good for innovation. Failure is part of learning, research & innovation. Some governments simply don’t accept failure as a natural part of the process.

[tggzzz]

I am suspicious that the parts might not be that hard to make if you put some money in it. Its a damn UV light source. And for all we know a emitter is right around the corner that gets rid of what ever complicated thing they have to make that shallow light right now.

Like if you have the physical machine and a few billion dollars and a analytical lab and some government pressure, someone is gonna figure out how to fix it pretty quick.


And like they would not bribe a ex employee or something if it was really giving them trouble.

I think it would only be troublesome if China wanted to keep a lid on it, so it does not proliferate more, from a big ass project, perhaps to have a strategic advantage against Russia or something like that, then I could see how their trusted pool of researchers might not be big enough to fix it. But if they were just like fuck maintaining secrecy, I am certain it would get solved pretty quickly.

Not UV, but EUV. Very different.

It isn't difficult to find descriptions of how the EUV is generated, but it sounds like you haven't bothered to look for them. The mechanism surprised me.

Then there's the optics and registration.

Highly non trivial; that's why AMSL is the sole source.

China has a research programme to develop such machines. When they have succeeded, there will be less preventing them from invading Taiwan.

[coppercone2]

I am familiar with the process and I still think its foolish to think China won't figure this out quickly if high budget research labs get all the physical parts.

And it might have similarities to secret chinese research involving pulse fusion or things like that which we don't know about. The idea of hitting small stuff with lasers is hardly new, even the PLR was doing it in the 70's for secret soviet research. You can bet there are compartments not talking to each other that could end up talking to each other if someone put their foot down and said there is a urgent crisis.

[TimFox]

If it were easy to copy TMSL's advantage in extremely-fine-resolution fabrication, others would have done it already since the payback could be huge.
On the other hand, it is foolish to assume that no one can catch up with them:  there may well be practicable techniques that do not violate physics which have not yet been reduced to practice.

[coppercone2]

Not easy in peace time where certain entities are isolated from other ones because of competition or reduced risk secrecy. China companies still compete with each other. Its what set it apart from the USSR, the limited free market reforms under Deng.. which are slowly being undone. I think we might see some really crazy shit if they start thumping their fist saying that the country needs to totally unite because of a big ass war. Relating to anything they feel is important at the time.

[thm_w]

Semiconductors are temporarily exempt from tariffs, something I missed originally:

Semiconductors, lumber, and pharmaceuticals were among the categories exempted from the reciprocal import tariffs. But Trump is signaling that each one will be targeted over time. “We are looking at pharma right now, pharmaceuticals, as a separate [tariff] category,” he said. “That’s under review right now."
It's unclear how much these categories will be tariffed. Trump previously warned he could tariff semiconductors at 25% or higher.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/trump-warns-foreign-chip-makers-your-tariffs-are-starting-very-soon

[u666sa]

what happens if Netherlands refuses to cooperate with US ... In case you were wondering.. its not just the places that have foundries.. its the tech behind them which is far more critical.. and bing.. bing.. bing.... ASML controls the tech space there.. Its far faster and expedient to retool existing foundries in the rest of Asia... so yeah.. all this is just smoke and mirrors show..

I love this european blah blah, if you do this we will do this. If Russia attacks ukraine, we will stop buying gas!! We'll freeze in winter. We'll buy more expensive gas from United States!! It's entertainment 100500. 

What happens if United States stops selling gas to netherlands? Gonna rebuild nord stream and buy gas from Russia? 

You'll do exactly what United States wants you to do, that's the bottom line. Because without U.S.A. you are screwed.

[krish2487]

what happens if Netherlands refuses to cooperate with US ... In case you were wondering.. its not just the places that have foundries.. its the tech behind them which is far more critical.. and bing.. bing.. bing.... ASML controls the tech space there.. Its far faster and expedient to retool existing foundries in the rest of Asia... so yeah.. all this is just smoke and mirrors show..

I love this european blah blah, if you do this we will do this. If Russia attacks ukraine, we will stop buying gas!! We'll freeze in winter. We'll buy more expensive gas from United States!! It's entertainment 100500. 

What happens if United States stops selling gas to netherlands? Gonna rebuild nord stream and buy gas from Russia? 

You'll do exactly what United States wants you to do, that's the bottom line. Because without U.S.A. you are screwed.

Wow!!!!  I think I ll just leave it at that... and wait and see how this turns out...

[BBBbbb]

what happens if Netherlands refuses to cooperate with US ... In case you were wondering.. its not just the places that have foundries.. its the tech behind them which is far more critical.. and bing.. bing.. bing.... ASML controls the tech space there.. Its far faster and expedient to retool existing foundries in the rest of Asia... so yeah.. all this is just smoke and mirrors show..

I love this european blah blah, if you do this we will do this. If Russia attacks ukraine, we will stop buying gas!! We'll freeze in winter. We'll buy more expensive gas from United States!! It's entertainment 100500. 

What happens if United States stops selling gas to netherlands? Gonna rebuild nord stream and buy gas from Russia? 

You'll do exactly what United States wants you to do, that's the bottom line. Because without U.S.A. you are screwed.

You really know very little about the topics you try to speak so passionately.
The Netherlands is one of the rare countries in EU that could fairly quickly ramp up their gas production and be independent, but they chose Groningen over exporting gas.

Anyways to whole gas/war issue IMO did good as it will force EU countries into moving to real green energy.

[krish2487]

You really know very little about the topics you try to speak so passionately.
The Netherlands is one of the rare countries in EU that could fairly quickly ramp up their gas production and be independent, but they chose Groningen over exporting gas.

Anyways to whole gas/war issue IMO did good as it will force EU countries into moving to real green energy.

I m really hoping for that... USA demonstrated its not a reliable ally long term.. IMO short term, we will indulge the orange clown but I suspect we will see reshaping of global diplomatic relations. Yes it will be hard and painful in the near term, but a good thing overall, and not just energy - I think we will see slow but sustained progress in tech, finance, energy and shipping

[tggzzz]

You really know very little about the topics you try to speak so passionately.
The Netherlands is one of the rare countries in EU that could fairly quickly ramp up their gas production and be independent, but they chose Groningen over exporting gas.

Anyways to whole gas/war issue IMO did good as it will force EU countries into moving to real green energy.

I m really hoping for that... USA demonstrated its not a reliable ally long term.. IMO short term, we will indulge the orange clown but I suspect we will see reshaping of global diplomatic relations. Yes it will be hard and painful in the near term, but a good thing overall, and not just energy - I think we will see slow but sustained progress in tech, finance, energy and shipping

Very painful in the near term.

A Molotov–Ribbentrop pact between mutual admirers leads to:

• Russia reclaims the Sudetenland Baltic States (minimum is to establish a land bridge to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad), maybe more. (Or maybe Crimea~=Suedetenland)
• Trump annexes Canada and Greenland.
• Once it has the ability to make AMSL equivalent machines, China reclaims Taiwan

In that context, "President Vladimir Putin has called up 160,000 men aged 18-30, Russia's highest number of conscripts since 2011, as the country moves to expand the size of its military." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c36718p52eyo

[pope]

what happens if Netherlands refuses to cooperate with US ... In case you were wondering.. its not just the places that have foundries.. its the tech behind them which is far more critical.. and bing.. bing.. bing.... ASML controls the tech space there.. Its far faster and expedient to retool existing foundries in the rest of Asia... so yeah.. all this is just smoke and mirrors show..

I love this european blah blah, if you do this we will do this. If Russia attacks ukraine, we will stop buying gas!! We'll freeze in winter. We'll buy more expensive gas from United States!! It's entertainment 100500. 

What happens if United States stops selling gas to netherlands? Gonna rebuild nord stream and buy gas from Russia? 

You'll do exactly what United States wants you to do, that's the bottom line. Because without U.S.A. you are screwed.

Is that a WAGNER Russian flag on your hat?

[krish2487]

Very painful in the near term.

A Molotov–Ribbentrop pact between mutual admirers leads to:

• Russia reclaims the Sudetenland Baltic States (minimum is to establish a land bridge to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad), maybe more. (Or maybe Crimea~=Suedetenland)
• Trump annexes Canada and Greenland.
• Once it has the ability to make AMSL equivalent machines, China reclaims Taiwan

In that context, "President Vladimir Putin has called up 160,000 men aged 18-30, Russia's highest number of conscripts since 2011, as the country moves to expand the size of its military." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c36718p52eyo

That seems to be the plan... I mean it is more than likely that Agent Orange's actions are just diverting attention and focusing on tariffs... while Russia amps up its armed forces... and when Russia is right and ready... We are more than likely to see an attack on two fronts... from the US and Russia...

[themadhippy]

What happens if United States stops selling gas to netherlands?

the netherlands,along with the rest of europe buy there gas from canada.

[Njk]

China companies still compete with each other. Its what set it apart from the USSR, the limited free market reforms under Deng.. which are slowly being undone.

In USSR, at least two state-owned companies were working on the same engineering problem. Specifically with the purpose of competition

[Marco]

Any plans? Strategies?

Raise prices. If you are very enterprising and think the tariffs, or something like it, will survive Trump ... find business opportunities. Huge gamble though.

That said, I think people who see these tariffs as just the insanity of a small set of republicans are naive. Biden continuing the extremely undiplomatic crippling of the WTO was to me an indication that the questioning of the current status quo of globalisation runs much deeper. It's just that the entirety of mainstream academia are good little Davos globalisation supporters, so speaking out against it in public is hard. Getting away from the status quo also requires disruption of WW level scale, so only Trump could do it ... but if he retains power for 4 years, the ball will be rolling. Same as with Afghanistan, a mad man can disrupt seemingly intractable situations.

[watchmaker]

There has been much speculation about motives and intentions.  I agree with Gen Powell's quote "I don't care about their intentions; I care about their capabilities"

Since I was very young (maybe 12, in the housing projects) when faced with a significant situation, I have always tried to identity the worst likely outcome and then plan accordingly.

It has never failed me.  Bothered my wife early on, but she came to appreciate it.

If you did not prepare for this a month ago and protect your assets, it is too late now.  There are a lot of Pollyanna's "hoping" this all about negotiations.  Anyone who knows the history of this man and his family (refugees from post WWI Germany which is where the family came deride soldiers as "losers and suckers") understands this individual creates chaos in order to exploit the situation for personal gain.

Now that those who supported disruption understand THEIR lives are now disrupted, they are either accepting the role of martyr or are starting to raise Hell that this is not what they voted for. 

What a surprise.

Businesses are NOT going to change their manufacturing plans based on the tariffs.  They plan at a minimum 5 years ahead and do not invest in new facilities based on immediate circumstances.

In this case, why would they do anything more than make sounds of abeyance while doing nothing so they can see what the next two years bring.  And I personally gave it 6 months until the masses found out they were schnookered.

Even Ted Cruz is sounding the alarm.

[5U4GB]

An amusing feature of these newly-announced tariffs is the choice of some incredibly small nations or territories, including St Pierre et Miquelon (the only remaining French territory in what was Canada):

That's because it was generated by Grok (or a similar "AI", but most likely Musk's one) based on Internet TLDs.

Seriously.

[tom66]

An amusing feature of these newly-announced tariffs is the choice of some incredibly small nations or territories, including St Pierre et Miquelon (the only remaining French territory in what was Canada):

That's because it was generated by Grok (or a similar "AI", but most likely Musk's one) based on Internet TLDs.

Seriously.

Believable.  It also included uninhabited territories, like the Heard and McDonald Islands.  Just in case the penguins there get any smart ideas about acting as dropshippers.

[vad]

So the stock market suffered from the Trump Derangement Syndrome for the second day in a row. When it hits rock bottom, sometime between Liberation Day and Victory Day (May 9th), which tech stocks would you consider investing in?

[tggzzz]

An amusing feature of these newly-announced tariffs is the choice of some incredibly small nations or territories, including St Pierre et Miquelon (the only remaining French territory in what was Canada):

That's because it was generated by Grok (or a similar "AI", but most likely Musk's one) based on Internet TLDs.

Seriously.

Believable.  It also included uninhabited territories, like the Heard and McDonald Islands.  Just in case the penguins there get any smart ideas about acting as dropshippers.

Falkland Islands, population 3622, was such a problem they imposed 41% tariff.
Norfolk Island , population 2188 was clearly causing the US a lot of problems - so they imposed 29% tariffs. That's more than Australia 10% - despite Norfolk Island being part of Australia.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2025/04/02/heres-the-full-list-of-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-announced-wednesday/

Conclusion: they are grossly incompetent, pig ignorant, want to destabilise the world through random actions, are fans of disaster capitalism, or any combination of those.

[TimFox]

As I posted above, the decision-making used a theoretical model, where a price increase was calculated that should reduce imports to a level that balances exports to that country, with assumed co-efficients for price-elasticity of imports.
Consider Lesotho:  an African country that is probably not known to the decision makers who imposed a 50% reciprocal tariff on it.
In Trump's first speech to the US Congress since returning to power, he said the US will cut aid to Lesotho and that it is an African nation "nobody has ever heard of".
It is a poor country, that probably cannot afford much imports from the US.
It's major export to the US is diamonds, which are pricey.
In my professional career, I often used extreme cases to evaluate proposed solutions, such as reducing the resistance to zero to see if the theory gave a believable result.

[pope]

 

[MT]

Diesel prices nose dive from 1,8 euro to 1,6 euro , thats nice, thanks zio Don, took the opportunity to fill up the tank.

[bdunham7]

It is a poor country, that probably cannot afford much imports from the US.
It's major export to the US is diamonds, which are pricey.
In my professional career, I often used extreme cases to evaluate proposed solutions, such as reducing the resistance to zero to see if the theory gave a believable result.

In this case, if the tariffs result in the diamonds all going elsewhere and mutual trade between Lesotho and the US becomes zero, the formula will have been correct as trade balance will have been acheived.