Tariffs

[Analog Kid]

I am wondering whether the admin has sent the letter to the penguins of Heard and McDonald Islands yet.

They're still trying to recruit ethologists to communicate with the birds.

[floobydust]

I don't think people understand how much eluding of trade restrictions happens.
Tariffs applied to the tiny uninhabited, nothingburger islands (e.g. Australian external territory Heard and McDonald Islands in Antarctica) were to prevent laundering the Country of Origin.

Ship from nefarious country to nothingburger island, then to USA. Shipping docs COO look like it's coming from Nothingburger.

"Australian trade minister Don Farrell told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that the tariffs were "clearly a mistake". "Poor old penguins, I don't know what they did to Trump, but, look, I think it's an indication, to be honest with you, that this was a rushed process."

[Analog Kid]

I don't think people understand how much eluding of trade restrictions happens.
Tariffs applied to the tiny uninhabited, nothingburger islands (e.g. Australian external territory Heard and McDonald Islands in Antarctica) were to prevent laundering the Country of Origin.

Ship from nefarious country to nothingburger island, then to USA. Shipping docs COO look like it's coming from Nothingburger.

What, do those islands even have ports, or port facilities?
Seems like any customs inspector worth their salt would have eyebrows raised by such shenanigans.

[floobydust]

It's rampant again though  - china ships (solar, copper, antimony etc.) through a middleman country like vietnam or indonesia etc. to give it a "wash". This has been going on for decades. Eluding trade restrictions, there is always a way.

edit: it's called transshipment but must have sneaky methods

[vad]

I don't think people understand how much eluding of trade restrictions happens.
Tariffs applied to the tiny uninhabited, nothingburger islands (e.g. Australian external territory Heard and McDonald Islands in Antarctica) were to prevent laundering the Country of Origin.

Ship from nefarious country to nothingburger island, then to USA. Shipping docs COO look like it's coming from Nothingburger.

"Australian trade minister Don Farrell told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that the tariffs were "clearly a mistake". "Poor old penguins, I don't know what they did to Trump, but, look, I think it's an indication, to be honest with you, that this was a rushed process."

Hey, genius mastermind, please grab a globe and check the shortest shipping route between East Asia and the US. And then explain this: why would a ship from China sail all the way south to the Heard and McDonald Islands when it could just swing by Vladivostok on the way to LA, top off on cheap diesel, crew relax at a local strip club, slap a “Made in Russia” sticker on the cargo, and enjoy 0% tariffs on Russian goods?

[vad]

I am wondering whether the admin has sent the letter to the penguins of Heard and McDonald Islands yet.

They're still trying to recruit ethologists to communicate with the birds.

This might take a while. They are probably too busy looking for an interpreter for a Liberian language.

[Marco]

Eluding trade restrictions, there is always a way.

Absent smuggling, both the formula and import certificates are pretty watertight. Someone always gets to pay.

[vk6zgo]

I don't think people understand how much eluding of trade restrictions happens.
Tariffs applied to the tiny uninhabited, nothingburger islands (e.g. Australian external territory Heard and McDonald Islands in Antarctica) were to prevent laundering the Country of Origin.

Ship from nefarious country to nothingburger island, then to USA. Shipping docs COO look like it's coming from Nothingburger.

"Australian trade minister Don Farrell told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that the tariffs were "clearly a mistake". "Poor old penguins, I don't know what they did to Trump, but, look, I think it's an indication, to be honest with you, that this was a rushed process."

The islands are part of Australia so there is no way that they could be used to elude trade restrictions, as they have no separate existence in the political or trade sense.

People making such lists should be expected to have a reasonable knowledge of geography.

[Analog Kid]

Hey, genius mastermind, please grab a globe and check the shortest shipping route between East Asia and the US. And then explain this: why would a ship from China sail all the way south to the Heard and McDonald Islands when it could just swing by Vladivostok on the way to LA, top off on cheap diesel, crew relax at a local strip club, slap a “Made in Russia” sticker on the cargo, and enjoy 0% tariffs on Russian goods?

Sorry to quibble about your otherwise eminently good proposition: but wouldn't that cargo be all sealed up in containers? Kinda hard to go through it all and slap those stickers on every piece of plastic crapola.

I used to work for a guy who imported stuff from China (women's purses and scarves), and yes, they did go through some of the boxes in the container before releasing it to us. (This was back circa 2006.)

[krish2487]

People making such lists should be expected to have a reasonable knowledge of geography.

Ahem.. have you seen the administration ?? 
To be clear, these are the same people who stated that France has to be grateful for the US stepping in during WW2 otherwise France would now be speaking German... and the president stupidus maximus himself ranting about non existent South African white farmer genocide... Its because of people like this that detergents have warning labels.

[PlainName]

Hey, genius mastermind, please grab a globe and check the shortest shipping route between East Asia and the US. And then explain this: why would a ship from China sail all the way south to the Heard and McDonald Islands when it could just swing by Vladivostok on the way to LA, top off on cheap diesel, crew relax at a local strip club, slap a “Made in Russia” sticker on the cargo, and enjoy 0% tariffs on Russian goods?

Scottish salmon is often consumed 4-600 miles away in London. According to your worldview that means an overnight drive down the M1 would be the best route, but in fact it's shipped over to China for processing before being shipped back again to be sold.

Shipping is cheap. So cheap that, rather than fillet its own fish, it is cheaper for Scotland to send its cod 10,000 miles over to China to be filleted and returned to Scotland.

I guess the world is just a little bit more complicated that you imagined 

[vad]

Hey, genius mastermind, please grab a globe and check the shortest shipping route between East Asia and the US. And then explain this: why would a ship from China sail all the way south to the Heard and McDonald Islands when it could just swing by Vladivostok on the way to LA, top off on cheap diesel, crew relax at a local strip club, slap a “Made in Russia” sticker on the cargo, and enjoy 0% tariffs on Russian goods?

Scottish salmon is often consumed 4-600 miles away in London. According to your worldview that means an overnight drive down the M1 would be the best route, but in fact it's shipped over to China for processing before being shipped back again to be sold.

Shipping is cheap. So cheap that, rather than fillet its own fish, it is cheaper for Scotland to send its cod 10,000 miles over to China to be filleted and returned to Scotland.

I guess the world is just a little bit more complicated that you imagined 

Thank you for addressing the geographic aspect of the argument. However, you overlooked other key points, such as the ample availability of sex workers for the crew (which the crew would not find on uninhabited islands), the opportunity to refuel with cheap diesel in defiance of oil sanctions, and most importantly, the 0% tariff loophole the size of the largest country on the planet, conveniently located just around the corner.

To use your fish analogy, this would be like sending salmon to China for processing, even though the same job could be done at the same cost in Manchester on the route from Scotland to London.

So, by my count, the score stands at 3-1 in my favor.

[vad]

Sorry to quibble about your otherwise eminently good proposition: but wouldn't that cargo be all sealed up in containers? Kinda hard to go through it all and slap those stickers on every piece of plastic crapola.

I used to work for a guy who imported stuff from China (women's purses and scarves), and yes, they did go through some of the boxes in the container before releasing it to us. (This was back circa 2006.)

Well, it wasn’t me who suggested that simply visiting a port along the shipping route qualifies the cargo to claim the transit port’s country as the country of origin. My point was to demonstrate that whatever illegal activity the author assumed could be carried out at a nonexistent seaport halfway around the world at Heard and McDonald Islands can just as easily be done around the corner in a Russian port.

[PlainName]

So, by my count, the score stands at 3-1 in my favor.

Sorry, I thought we were after enlightenment, not playing for points. I'll leave you to your games, then.

[floobydust]

I don't think people understand how much eluding of trade restrictions happens.
Tariffs applied to the tiny uninhabited, nothingburger islands (e.g. Australian external territory Heard and McDonald Islands in Antarctica) were to prevent laundering the Country of Origin.

Ship from nefarious country to nothingburger island, then to USA. Shipping docs COO look like it's coming from Nothingburger.

"Australian trade minister Don Farrell told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that the tariffs were "clearly a mistake". "Poor old penguins, I don't know what they did to Trump, but, look, I think it's an indication, to be honest with you, that this was a rushed process."

Hey, genius mastermind, please grab a globe and check the shortest shipping route between East Asia and the US. And then explain this: why would a ship from China sail all the way south to the Heard and McDonald Islands when it could just swing by Vladivostok on the way to LA, top off on cheap diesel, crew relax at a local strip club, slap a “Made in Russia” sticker on the cargo, and enjoy 0% tariffs on Russian goods?

A russian concerned about tariffs? When in America - love America.
They buy millions $ in semiconductors and test equipment from the US. They prefer to buy direct - use shell companies and fronts. Countless indictments. Mainly using third countries for the middleman. Like this: https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdtx/pr/bulgarian-national-extradited-scheme-illegally-export-us-origin-sensitive

[Zero999]

So, by my count, the score stands at 3-1 in my favor.

Sorry, I thought we were after enlightenment, not playing for points. I'll leave you to your games, then.

Unfortunately these sorts of threads all too often degrade into petty point scoring.

This is because when someone becomes emotionally attached to an idea and will not be convinced by logic and reason.

[Sorama]

So, by my count, the score stands at 3-1 in my favor.

Sorry, I thought we were after enlightenment, not playing for points. I'll leave you to your games, then.

Unfortunately these sorts of threads all too often degrade into petty point scoring.

This is because when someone becomes emotionally attached to an idea and will not be convinced by logic and reason.

[themadhippy]

Dammed if you do dammed if you dont, canada  bending over and ditching the digital service tax aint done them much good ,looks like there getting a nice 35%.

[floobydust]

The reality of globalism and world trade is ugly, nobody even myself- can't accept a lot of it. It's been terrible for decades.
We all want low prices. Wall Street wants max. profits short term. Smarter nation's governments have long-term strategy to build industry.
china has the enforced directive "for the good of the Nation", "for the good of the People" whereas the West does not give a shit. Leaving us in a downward mess.

Trump's tariffs, out of his 1987 "The Art of the Deal" are going to be him throwing his weight around, bluffing, pushing etc.  but the time constant is too long.
Hitting the basic commodities - steel, aluminum, copper - basically a disaster for the country in that it takes many years to build up mines and smelters.
china is number one, way ahead for producing many commodities. Good luck catching up.

[tszaboo]

People making such lists should be expected to have a reasonable knowledge of geography.

Ahem.. have you seen the administration ?? 
To be clear, these are the same people who stated that France has to be grateful for the US stepping in during WW2 otherwise France would now be speaking German... and the president stupidus maximus himself ranting about non existent South African white farmer genocide... Its because of people like this that detergents have warning labels.

These are also the same people who just scored ATHs on every stock exchange, and saved enough money on the budget to cut taxes. And they did that without printing a Trillion dollars every 3 month and making record worldwide inflation like the previous one.

As long as the economy is doing good, I don't care if they dance on a table in clown shoes. Which they clearly are not doing. Instead we see unprecedented things happening, things actually getting better.

[vad]

The reality of globalism and world trade is ugly, nobody even myself- can't accept a lot of it. It's been terrible for decades.
We all want low prices. Wall Street wants max. profits short term. Smarter nation's governments have long-term strategy to build industry.
china has the enforced directive "for the good of the Nation", "for the good of the People" whereas the West does not give a shit. Leaving us in a downward mess.

Trump's tariffs, out of his 1987 "The Art of the Deal" are going to be him throwing his weight around, bluffing, pushing etc.  but the time constant is too long.
Hitting the basic commodities - steel, aluminum, copper - basically a disaster for the country in that it takes many years to build up mines and smelters.
china is number one, way ahead for producing many commodities. Good luck catching up.

The system in which wealthy countries import cheap commodities from abroad, use them to manufacture higher-value products, and then export those products at a premium has worked effectively for centuries (at least since the 16th century). The fantasy of a completely self-sufficient economy is not supported by mainstream economic theory, and the experiment led by the Peter Navarro-led administration would at best stagnate the economy, and at worst could lead to economic collapse.

[vad]

These are also the same people who just scored ATHs on every stock exchange, and saved enough money on the budget to cut taxes. And they did that without printing a Trillion dollars every 3 month and making record worldwide inflation like the previous one.

Well, the reason they haven’t printed trillions of dollars _yet_ is that the person in charge of the printing press has politely declined numerous calls to do so, anticipating the inflation that would be caused by the tariffs…

[floobydust]

The reality of globalism and world trade is ugly, nobody even myself- can't accept a lot of it. It's been terrible for decades.
We all want low prices. Wall Street wants max. profits short term. Smarter nation's governments have long-term strategy to build industry.
china has the enforced directive "for the good of the Nation", "for the good of the People" whereas the West does not give a shit. Leaving us in a downward mess.

Trump's tariffs, out of his 1987 "The Art of the Deal" are going to be him throwing his weight around, bluffing, pushing etc.  but the time constant is too long.
Hitting the basic commodities - steel, aluminum, copper - basically a disaster for the country in that it takes many years to build up mines and smelters.
china is number one, way ahead for producing many commodities. Good luck catching up.

The system in which wealthy countries import cheap commodities from abroad, use them to manufacture higher-value products, and then export those products at a premium has worked effectively for centuries (at least since the 16th century). The fantasy of a completely self-sufficient economy is not supported by mainstream economic theory, and the experiment led by the Peter Navarro-led administration would at best stagnate the economy, and at worst could lead to economic collapse.

I think it's not "all or none" thinking for self-sufficiency that is the goal. It's about returning to mercantilism a bit, the government regulating something instead of the Wild West- where only profit matters and unbounded globalism is a 'good thing'. Communist countries have nationalism, you are familiar - it is essential to have that backed up in law by the Gov't.

Peter Navarro is decent in his views of hostile foreign trade. Excellent china hawk, very smart. His books are very good but I did not read his latest https://www.amazon.com/New-Maga-Deal-Unofficial-Deplorables/dp/B0CZ5DLXY8]The New Maga Deal: The Unofficial Deplorables Guide to Donald Trump's 2024 Policy Platform[/url] I probably should to see if it explains this tariff approach.

But really, after many decades you won't be turning the ship around. Certainly not in a 4 year term. It will cost everyone and be painful. Too much too fast and wrong approach I think.

For example, the US will never manufacture solar panels to any commercial success. Getting away from importing panels is a good example of how this tariff approach is a failure.
The result is Americans pay more for solar, several ripoff US companies import and relabel them, get grants etc.
Will this "bring it home"? Start solar panel production in the USA? china has 93% of global polysilicon production capacity! There's even a massive glut now. china has cheap maybe even slave labour building panels. Sorry, but it's too late- you have lost out. Investing in making them in the USA- this has been tried several times and failed.
So what use is the tariff revenue as a tax the American people pay? Seems like a cash grab towards inducing a recession.

You can't mandate, push, force, local manufacturing and production; decades after losing the environment. Even the inputs - steel, aluminum, copper, antimony etc. you don't even have those. It's a mess.

[dietert1]

The president is an old man. His opinions and actions show that he got lost when the US won the cold war 35 years ago. And his dissent with Mr. Musk demonstrates his difficulty to learn things.
Todays world is a lot different. Many countries with strong (autoritarian) governments who don't need the US for their well being and who can simply turn off US propaganda (Google, Disney, Marvel). I'd guess if the US government continues like that, it will be to their disadvantage. They can bomb Russia in the name of Ukraine and Iran in the name of Israel but that's terrorism and leaves everybody else bewildered. Ship-loads of Brasilian fish are lost, because Trump wants his friend Bolsonaro exempt from due process, like himself. It's a shame.

Regards, Dieter

[vk6zgo]

The reality of globalism and world trade is ugly, nobody even myself- can't accept a lot of it. It's been terrible for decades.
We all want low prices. Wall Street wants max. profits short term. Smarter nation's governments have long-term strategy to build industry.
china has the enforced directive "for the good of the Nation", "for the good of the People" whereas the West does not give a shit. Leaving us in a downward mess.

Trump's tariffs, out of his 1987 "The Art of the Deal" are going to be him throwing his weight around, bluffing, pushing etc.  but the time constant is too long.
Hitting the basic commodities - steel, aluminum, copper - basically a disaster for the country in that it takes many years to build up mines and smelters.
china is number one, way ahead for producing many commodities. Good luck catching up.

The system in which wealthy countries import cheap commodities from abroad, use them to manufacture higher-value products, and then export those products at a premium has worked effectively for centuries (at least since the 16th century). The fantasy of a completely self-sufficient economy is not supported by mainstream economic theory, and the experiment led by the Peter Navarro-led administration would at best stagnate the economy, and at worst could lead to economic collapse.

The "British Empire"(or similar) model where the Brits received cheap commodities, then from them, made manufactured goods that the "colonies" consumed, paying premium prices, only worked whilst the Brits could control such countries. When they achieved independence, they inevitably wanted to manufacture their own goods, so the old system fell away.