Tariffs

[tautech]

Ya think ?
There might be some news coming for US citizens that they don't wanna hear. 

We in NZ that export edible animal products to you have been hit with 10% which might only increase retail cost a few % but add them all up then year on year.......

I fail to see your point? Sensationalism isn't constructive. Nor is fearmongering. Most "animal" products are produced locally. If you were to talk about produce, then you might have a legitimate point. I'm from Utah, we do dairy and beef. That's why I brought up butter, its made in-state sold in-state and has gone up in price before Trump ever came into office and adjusted tariffs. The "pandemic" increased food prices to as high as people are willing to pay, increasing them further won't work. I'm sure there are some foodstuffs that will increase due to import fees, but it will be small in comparison to the current price.

Yet our largest NZ to US export is beef, mostly lean bull beef for hamburgers.

Your local prices are such that makes them very attractive despite the costs of shipping and demand this year has been such we have seen record prices, such that normal seasonal price fluctuation has been barely visible this year. 

Son had US guests a few weeks ago, farmers from Colorado and Nevada growing beef and grain which were getting 2x the value for their beef that we get.   :'(  < Cry emoji not working

[incf]

Yet our largest NZ to US export is beef, mostly lean bull beef for hamburgers.

Your local prices are such that makes them very attractive despite the costs of shipping and demand this year has been such we have seen record prices, such that normal seasonal price fluctuation has been barely visible this year. 

Son had US guests a few weeks ago, farmers from Colorado and Nevada growing beef and grain which were getting 2x the value for their beef that we get.   :'(  < Cry emoji not working

Can you provide some figures?

Offhand I think a live (cattle) bulls sell for $160-$200 USD per 100lbs live weight in my part of the US. And sheep sell for more.

What do they sell for in NZ? And how will might tariffs affect it.

Are you saying that your local meat prices are elevated year round because all of your meat goes to the US? (which has even higher prices)

edit: I looked up NZ pricing, and wow...

[tautech]

Yet our largest NZ to US export is beef, mostly lean bull beef for hamburgers.

Your local prices are such that makes them very attractive despite the costs of shipping and demand this year has been such we have seen record prices, such that normal seasonal price fluctuation has been barely visible this year. 

Son had US guests a few weeks ago, farmers from Colorado and Nevada growing beef and grain which were getting 2x the value for their beef that we get.   :'(  < Cry emoji not working

Can you provide some figures?

Offhand I think a live (cattle) bulls sell for $160-$200 USD per 100lbs live weight in my part of the US. And sheep sell for more.

IIRC US visitor said ~$1900 USD for 630lb yearling ~ double what we get @ peak pricing.

What do they sell for in NZ? And how will might tariffs affect it.

Don't expect US tariffs to have any significant long term effects.

Are you saying that your local meat prices are elevated year round because all of your meat goes to the US? (which has even higher prices)

Not at all.

US is our largest beef market and demand has kept prices at record levels this year whereas we normally have at least 10% seasonal fluctuation.
Some NZ marketplace factors have also bolstered NZ pricing but in essence it's a shortage of animals due to several factors.

We can finish beef on grass or saved pasture (Silage) all year round such is our climate where our spring coincides with your late summer when animal condition score is normally waning.
Prime cuts is where the money is for any of us and the burger market is normally from trimmings supplemented with the normally lean bull beef which historically been our main US export.

[coppercone2]

US Trade Rep Jamieson Greer:
"We must move away from an economy based solely on the financial sector and government spending, and we must become an economy based on producing real goods and services".

Peter Navarro is following his policy paper "The Case for Fair Trade" and the guy is bang on when it comes to unfair trade practices. "The stark lesson of this chapter is that America gets fleeced every day in the global marketplace both by a predatory Communist China and by an institutionally unfair and nonreciprocal WTO".
He also has a 2011 book "Death by China" (movie in 2012?) I've never looked into.
But... they went after him and he was in prison for bit.

I have to laugh "Navarro described Musk as a 'car assembler,' and claimed his Tesla vehicles required parts manufactured in foreign countries including China, Japan, and Taiwan."
"He's a car person. That's what he does, and he wants the cheap foreign parts."

So that has pissed off Elon.

you are right, they want to screw things together as assemblers. When you start getting into fumes, heat, smoke and glowing materials suddenly its too hard to control some pristine lean good looker operation

elon going to be pickling brackets as they fall off the forge, suit might get dirty 

anything more complicated then a ez bake oven

[incf]

IIRC US visitor said ~$1900 USD for 630lb yearling ~ double what we get @ peak pricing.

That's wild.

I looked it up. Those US prices appear to be true ("feeder" stock) - I can see how importing would be worthwhile.

This is reminiscent of the pricing gaps between Asian and "US" semiconductors/switches/relays. (except cattle are a true commodity, whereas the Asian parts are often meaningfully different than comparable US offerings)

[floobydust]

US Trade Rep Jamieson Greer:
"We must move away from an economy based solely on the financial sector and government spending, and we must become an economy based on producing real goods and services".

Peter Navarro is following his policy paper "The Case for Fair Trade" and the guy is bang on when it comes to unfair trade practices. "The stark lesson of this chapter is that America gets fleeced every day in the global marketplace both by a predatory Communist China and by an institutionally unfair and nonreciprocal WTO".
He also has a 2011 book "Death by China" (movie in 2012?) I've never looked into.
But... they went after him and he was in prison for bit.

I have to laugh "Navarro described Musk as a 'car assembler,' and claimed his Tesla vehicles required parts manufactured in foreign countries including China, Japan, and Taiwan."
"He's a car person. That's what he does, and he wants the cheap foreign parts."

So that has pissed off Elon.

you are right, they want to screw things together as assemblers. When you start getting into fumes, heat, smoke and glowing materials suddenly its too hard to control some pristine lean good looker operation

elon going to be pickling brackets as they fall off the forge, suit might get dirty 

anything more complicated then a ez bake oven

Tariffs fail to address the real problem - that Wall Street and corporations place profit above all else, above the people, above the nation.
Outsource and globalize- to the demise of your own country. It's been going on for decades. I'm glad things are being busted up, like the bull in the china shop lol that Trump is.

“If you go to his Texas plant, a good part of the engines that he gets, which in the EV case is the batteries, come from Japan and come from China, the electronics come from Taiwan,” Navarro said.
“The thing that’s, I think, important about Elon to understand, he sells cars. That’s what he does,” he said during an interview. “He’s simply protecting his own interests, as any businessperson would do.”
“He’s got X, he’s got a big microphone; we don’t mind him saying whatever he wants,” Navarro added.

[bdunham7]

The price of 2lbs of butter was 18 USD at Costco (a "wholesaler") when I went last.

That was for KerryGold imported from Ireland.  Regular Kirkland brand is $16 for 4lbs.  Basic consumer staples are not exorbitant here compared to anywhere in the world that I've been, the current egg crisis notwithstanding.

[coppercone2]

US Trade Rep Jamieson Greer:
"We must move away from an economy based solely on the financial sector and government spending, and we must become an economy based on producing real goods and services".

Peter Navarro is following his policy paper "The Case for Fair Trade" and the guy is bang on when it comes to unfair trade practices. "The stark lesson of this chapter is that America gets fleeced every day in the global marketplace both by a predatory Communist China and by an institutionally unfair and nonreciprocal WTO".
He also has a 2011 book "Death by China" (movie in 2012?) I've never looked into.
But... they went after him and he was in prison for bit.

I have to laugh "Navarro described Musk as a 'car assembler,' and claimed his Tesla vehicles required parts manufactured in foreign countries including China, Japan, and Taiwan."
"He's a car person. That's what he does, and he wants the cheap foreign parts."

So that has pissed off Elon.

you are right, they want to screw things together as assemblers. When you start getting into fumes, heat, smoke and glowing materials suddenly its too hard to control some pristine lean good looker operation

elon going to be pickling brackets as they fall off the forge, suit might get dirty 

anything more complicated then a ez bake oven

Tariffs fail to address the real problem - that Wall Street and corporations place profit above all else, above the people, above the nation.
Outsource and globalize- to the demise of your own country. It's been going on for decades. I'm glad things are being busted up, like the bull in the china shop lol that Trump is.

“If you go to his Texas plant, a good part of the engines that he gets, which in the EV case is the batteries, come from Japan and come from China, the electronics come from Taiwan,” Navarro said.
“The thing that’s, I think, important about Elon to understand, he sells cars. That’s what he does,” he said during an interview. “He’s simply protecting his own interests, as any businessperson would do.”
“He’s got X, he’s got a big microphone; we don’t mind him saying whatever he wants,” Navarro added.

he is gonna have to make a teslaforge to have any credibility here. not ikea. with power hammers, vats, supersonic banging noises, sewer monitoring etc

I think that the chinese took over like they did because mao had a obession with steel. while his first plan failed, the heritage and party interest remained and evolved, meaning guys end up standing over hammers throwing sparks for low pay to make the critical parts that don't fall apart, and india doing it bare foot. that kind of dirty environment americans hate does not bother that kind of parts manufacturing.. being clever with FEA-M on aluminum is not going to make those parts less desirable for automobiles

[tautech]

US Trade Rep Jamieson Greer:
"We must move away from an economy based solely on the financial sector and government spending, and we must become an economy based on producing real goods and services".

Peter Navarro is following his policy paper "The Case for Fair Trade" and the guy is bang on when it comes to unfair trade practices. "The stark lesson of this chapter is that America gets fleeced every day in the global marketplace both by a predatory Communist China and by an institutionally unfair and nonreciprocal WTO".
He also has a 2011 book "Death by China" (movie in 2012?) I've never looked into.
But... they went after him and he was in prison for bit.

I have to laugh "Navarro described Musk as a 'car assembler,' and claimed his Tesla vehicles required parts manufactured in foreign countries including China, Japan, and Taiwan."
"He's a car person. That's what he does, and he wants the cheap foreign parts."

So that has pissed off Elon.

you are right, they want to screw things together as assemblers. When you start getting into fumes, heat, smoke and glowing materials suddenly its too hard to control some pristine lean good looker operation

elon going to be pickling brackets as they fall off the forge, suit might get dirty 

anything more complicated then a ez bake oven

Tariffs fail to address the real problem - that Wall Street and corporations place profit above all else, above the people, above the nation.
Outsource and globalize- to the demise of your own country. It's been going on for decades. I'm glad things are being busted up, like the bull in the china shop lol that Trump is.

That Wall St became what is is today from greedy corporations and the never-ending need to please shareholders.

As the GM/CEO's gained bonuses from sending production offshore from the increased profitability the whole thing snowballed to now where anyone that is someone has a production facility in the East.

Now Chump wants to bite the hand that made those profits possible......

[Ranayna]

Ok, the tariffs are for products.  What about services.  I heard third hand that services are not implemented.

This is only about physical goods going across borders, the service exports that the US makes, from the likes of AWS, GCP, Azure, Netflix, Meta, Apple.... are not factored into the equation in so far as I know, neither in terms of the source trade balance, nor the resultant tariffs.

I don't know how much those digital service exports are worth, but I imagine it's a sizable chunk.

For the european union, if you add the value of the services, the trade imbalance gets almost balanced. Big Tech services are a *huge* chunk. And the european union knows very well how dependent we are on big tech. So even while the suggestions are in the room to tax or tariff services, i very much doubt that that will happen. This would affect virtually every european company.

[tom66]

Europe really needs to develop a native alternative to AWS/GCP/Azure and incentivise European domiciled companies to use that.

It doesn't affect Europe too much if people can't access WhatsApp or Facebook - there are viable alternatives, or you can go without...  But many services in our local government, for instance, are hosted on AWS.  This includes parts of our healthcare services (non-medical information, but still important - like staff scheduling, building operations, logistics...)

[Ranayna]

Private services are really mostly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. You are right in that regard.

Though i don't know... I expect the average person to be quite pissed if WhatsApp goes away. That is everywhere.

It's not only the cloud services that we as a whole are dependent on.
Let's add a tax or tarrif to for example windows and office licenses... Name a company that would not be affected? If you add Apple devices, i doubt you can name a single company that would not be affected by such a tax/tariff.
There might be the occasional "unicorn" that solely uses Linux. But unless they are exclusively using Ubuntu or SuSE, they would also be affected by tariffs on US services.

[coppercone2]

and no one answered the OP and it degenerated into panic (now at 104%!)


I think its time to hit the books on transistor circuits for the 3906, 2222 and 741 and start working miracles when you can't get the convenient advanced IC solution that runs linux at 800MHz for a blinky

[BBBbbb]

At this point I just want everyone to keep doubling down, to see how far we can get.

[coppercone2]

lmfao its kinda true if we had money in this we would not be on this forum so its like watching a fight

[dietert1]

With the latest tariff for imports from China the weighted average tariff will now rise from about 45 % to 60 % or so and the assumption that only 25 % of that will arrive at the average consumer may be completely wrong. Looks more like a disruptive change ahead for all US economy.
On the other hand: If recession can reduce the average US citizen from 14.3 tons of CO2 to 7 tons per year, everybody else will be happy, even if US nationalism was pretended for reasoning. The only thing that must not happen is escalation to a military war. Lets see how the administration reacts to the 84 % for exports to China that apply tomorrow.
Where are the "checks and balances"? Is democracy already broken?

Regards, Dieter

[tom66]

At this point I just want everyone to keep doubling down, to see how far we can get.

Well at this point I think it is more self-flagellation by the US to see if anyone blinks... and I'm not seeing it happening, but I guess time will tell.

[Smoky]

If I was the President of The United States, I would revoke the over 300,000 student visas issued to Chinese nationals studying in the our colleges today.

Why in the hell is The United States educating freaking Communists???

The United States has so many poor and unfortunate children that could use the help and a change of course.

The value of most college endowments, individually, exceed tens of billions of dollars and, in most cases, the money just sits and rots.

Screw China!

[Sorama]

and...China hits back with an 84% extra tax on US goods.

Looks like  another round of who can p*ss the furthest.

[coppercone2]

If I was the President of The United States, I would revoke the over 300,000 student visas issued to Chinese nationals studying in the our colleges today.

Why in the hell is The United States educating freaking Communists???

The United States has so many poor and unfortunate children that could use the help and a change of course.

The value of most college endowments, individually, exceed tens of billions of dollars and, in most cases, the money just sits and rots.

Screw China!

actually education is the #1 way to defeat communism, cults of personality, strict regimes, etc.

i.e. when people see that there is actually another functional system of government, and see how things are, instead of having the propaganda

When you experience living in a functioning country with a different system of government you can call bullshit on polarizing statements


Kinda like those north korean border guards that see the south koreans are having a good time on the other side and decide to book it through a mine field to get some pizza they saw through binoculars

[themadhippy]

Why in the hell is The United States educating freaking Communists???

because the chinese can afford to pay for it. Imagine the stink from trumpton  if we decided no yanks can attend oxford or cambridge,even if daddies got enough money to buy both unis.

[Wallace Gasiewicz]

This is correct, students from elsewhere pay more tuition than locals.   
This means out of state students pay more than in state students for State funded Unis     
The same thing applies to foreign students     
The Unis are making big bucks from foreign students

[Smoky]

I say if anyone has a wild-hair itching to convert a Communist, do it on your time and your dime. Thank you very much

[SteveThackery]

This is correct, students from elsewhere pay more tuition than locals.   
This means out of state students pay more than in state students for State funded Unis     
The same thing applies to foreign students     
The Unis are making big bucks from foreign students

I believe the question was rhetorical.

[wilfred]

With the latest tariff for imports from China the weighted average tariff will now rise from about 45 % to 60 % or so and the assumption that only 25 % of that will arrive at the average consumer may be completely wrong. Looks more like a disruptive change ahead for all US economy.
On the other hand: If recession can reduce the average US citizen from 14.3 tons of CO2 to 7 tons per year, everybody else will be happy, even if US nationalism was pretended for reasoning. The only thing that must not happen is escalation to a military war. Lets see how the administration reacts to the 84 % for exports to China that apply tomorrow.
Where are the "checks and balances"? Is democracy already broken?

Regards, Dieter

If you're referring to the phi on the denominator on that equation as the 25% then I saw this video where one of the authors of the paper where that number was claimed (wrongly) to come from and he says it was actually 0.95. Which means the denominator should be nearly 4 times bigger and hence the tariff rate calculated to offset the effect of a countries trade surplus (too much exports to the US) should be a quarter of the value of the tariff imposed.

The 0.95 as I understand it is the passthrough of the import price after tariff has been applied to the end consumer. 0.95 means that almost all is passed on to the consumer.

That said, and even if I don't understand it correctly, to set tariffs based on a trade surplus is nonsense as the example of Lesotho (mostly diamonds) and Madagascar (mostly Vanilla beans) makes abundantly clear. Neither poor nation can buy expensive American stuff. Forget about the penguins on Heard Island brokering deals to passthru Chinese product to escape the 104% tariffs.


But I did like comedien Dave Chappelle's comment "I want to wear Nike not make them."

https://youtu.be/XTwNUl-v57s?si=R0sLC6r0Zo1LF9yL&t=347 it's cued to the point in question.