Tariffs

[themadhippy]

... As a hobbyist seeing the news of shipments being halted by Chinese vendors makes me wonder if there a possibility of great 2020 style shortages in the next few months.

Doubt the rest of the world will suffer,In fact we might benefit from prices drops due to a glut of stuff that would normally be state bound.

[EEVblog]

Just got this email from DHL:

I wonder if this email is Australia specific. For example, it's not clear if shipment from China of less than $800 require formal processing.

Yes, it came from the Australian comms group.

[wilfred]

...all products with a country of origin (COO) of China, Hong Kong, and Macau.

BTW, is nowadays Hong Kong (and Macau) generally considered just as rest of China mainland in terms of shipments, etc.?

Hong Kong was handed back to the Chinese in 1997 if memory serves. So yes it is China. HK enjoys limited autonomy which grows ever more limited with the passage of time, and it expires in 2047. 50 years is nothing to the Chinese.

[wilfred]

One of the things I've been asking through the development of the tariff situation over the last few weeks is whether it is time to start hoarding.

I imagine that if you have products you sell at scale (as a business), you probably should have stocked up back in November... As a hobbyist seeing the news of shipments being halted by Chinese vendors makes me wonder if there a possibility of great 2020 style shortages in the next few months.

Hoarding sounds tempting but most businesses can't afford to hoard since a lot of the modern supply chains have developed precisely to improve efficiencies from holding a minimum of inventories. The Covid pandemic revealed the flaws in that approach. But the big issue is whether that is a good decision if the tariff situation unfolds in a short time. A business dependent on China or a single source of supply in any form is vulnerable. There could be a war over Taiwan which is why the previous administration legislated to return semiconductor manufacturing to the US. Or there could be a widening of Bond yields leading to financial market problems.

[MT]

A typical work day in Trumps tariff'ed cabinet:

[SiliconWizard]

Sure, meanwhile Apple is going to invest $500 billion in the US.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/02/apple-will-spend-more-than-500-billion-usd-in-the-us-over-the-next-four-years/

[TimFox]

Sure, meanwhile Apple is going to invest $500 billion in the US.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/02/apple-will-spend-more-than-500-billion-usd-in-the-us-over-the-next-four-years/

The press release does not speak of manufacturing iPhones in the US.

[zapta]

Sure, meanwhile Apple is going to invest $500 billion in the US.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/02/apple-will-spend-more-than-500-billion-usd-in-the-us-over-the-next-four-years/

And many others

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/16/politics/donald-trump-softbank/index.html

https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-ceo-meet-with-trump-tout-investment-plans-2025-03-03/

[dietert1]

The Apple investment comes from where? In the end, it's the consumer who is going to pay, not only but including the US consumer. Prices of iphones will certainly increase. And those factories will be 100% robotic with few new jobs.

Regards, Dieter

[zapta]

The Apple investment comes from where? In the end, it's the consumer who is going to pay, not only but including the US consumer. Prices of iphones will certainly increase. And those factories will be 100% robotic with few new jobs.

A lot of negativity here from countries that claim to be friends of the US.  The people of the US should open their eyes and focus more on their own interests.

[tggzzz]

The Apple investment comes from where? In the end, it's the consumer who is going to pay, not only but including the US consumer. Prices of iphones will certainly increase. And those factories will be 100% robotic with few new jobs.

A lot of negativity here from countries that claim to be friends of the US.  The people of the US should open their eyes and focus more on their own interests.

Their own interests are, just as with families and neighbourhoods, best served by helping friends in the neighbourhood. Also true for decent companies, such as HP when Bill and Dave were in charge, or Tektronix.

[themadhippy]

meanwhile Apple is going to invest $500 billion in the US.

Means nothing , Nvidea announced the same,and still got hit with a ban on exporting  chips to china that were  specifically designed to avoid export controls

[TimFox]

The Apple investment comes from where? In the end, it's the consumer who is going to pay, not only but including the US consumer. Prices of iphones will certainly increase. And those factories will be 100% robotic with few new jobs.

A lot of negativity here from countries that claim to be friends of the US.  The people of the US should open their eyes and focus more on their own interests.

Recently announced US tariffs target America’s neighbors and traditional friends, as well as its adversaries.
Should that be regarded positively by them?

[MK14]

75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving

The massive changes in US research brought about by the new administration of President Donald Trump are causing many scientists in the country to rethink their lives and careers. More than 1,200 scientists who responded to a Nature poll — three-quarters of the total respondents — are considering leaving the United States following the disruptions prompted by Trump. Europe and Canada were among the top choices for relocation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00938-y

Presumably, the tariffs are a factor in that result.

[TimFox]

75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving

The massive changes in US research brought about by the new administration of President Donald Trump are causing many scientists in the country to rethink their lives and careers. More than 1,200 scientists who responded to a Nature poll — three-quarters of the total respondents — are considering leaving the United States following the disruptions prompted by Trump. Europe and Canada were among the top choices for relocation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00938-y

Presumably, the tariffs are a factor in that result.

More likely, the decrees against science, censorship of scientific articles and topics, and arbitrary cut-off of research funding.
Were I now embarking on my scientific education, I would pay more attention to foreign languages;  although scientific publications will probably stay with English as a lingua franca for some time, the local language will be needed for living abroad.

[tggzzz]

75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving

The massive changes in US research brought about by the new administration of President Donald Trump are causing many scientists in the country to rethink their lives and careers. More than 1,200 scientists who responded to a Nature poll — three-quarters of the total respondents — are considering leaving the United States following the disruptions prompted by Trump. Europe and Canada were among the top choices for relocation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00938-y

Presumably, the tariffs are a factor in that result.

Unlikely.

More like the actions described in the series of blog posts from someone toiling at the coalface.
https://www.science.org/topic/blog-category/current-events
Derek Lowe is nobody's fool nor acolyte. That organisation, AAAS, is very respectable - unless, of course, you are the kind of person that uses dog whistles such as "MSM".

[Analog Kid]

75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving

The massive changes in US research brought about by the new administration of President Donald Trump are causing many scientists in the country to rethink their lives and careers. More than 1,200 scientists who responded to a Nature poll — three-quarters of the total respondents — are considering leaving the United States following the disruptions prompted by Trump. Europe and Canada were among the top choices for relocation.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00938-y

Presumably, the tariffs are a factor in that result.

More likely, the decrees against science, censorship of scientific articles and topics, and arbitrary cut-off of research funding.
Were I now embarking on my scientific education, I would pay more attention to foreign languages;  although scientific publications will probably stay with English as a lingua franca for some time, the local language will be needed for living abroad.

We'll see. it's possible, of course, We seem to have been here before, predicting a mass exodus because of Trump (back in 2016).
The breathless reporting was that people were planning on moving to our northern neighbor en masse.
Didn't really happen then. (Nothing like during the Vietnam war, when it really did happen.)

[TimFox]

There are precedents:
US universities gained large numbers of European scholars in the 1930s.
Long before that, many scholars took refuge in the Netherlands, Scandinavia, the Ottoman Empire, or other temporary sanctuaries.
The loss of Federal research grants will force many scientists to leave or abandon basic research.
There is more to life than software.

[MK14]

More likely, the decrees against science, censorship of scientific articles and topics, and arbitrary cut-off of research funding.
Were I now embarking on my scientific education, I would pay more attention to foreign languages;  although scientific publications will probably stay with English as a lingua franca for some time, the local language will be needed for living abroad.

But the thing is, that could be very bad for Americas balance of payment, and all sorts of industries.

After making that post, I carried on researching it.

The thing is, just considering medical science, for things, such as new medicines.

It means that instead of new businesses, being created in the US, to make fresh new medicines, developed by these bio-scientists, and not only helping with the health of Americans, it can keep the US, as a leading supplier of biotech stuff, such as selling pharmaceuticals, which can bring in huge amounts of dollars.

Whereas, now they are beginning to leave for other countries, such as the UK, EU and China.  Who will gain the medical benefits of their expertise, world-wide sales of any new medicines and biotechnologies they produce, and those industries.

It can even affect, a countries military strength, and ability to keep up with modern developments, in such technologies.

I.e. America has been a leader, in many of these fields.  Needlessly throwing away such technological leads, may not be a good idea.

I've only given a couple of examples, but these days, there is a bewildering number of scientific, mathematical and engineering fields.

So, I feel sad for America, to apparently just be throwing much of it away, in such an (my opinion) inefficient way.

[TimFox]

We’ll regret it when it’s gone.

[tggzzz]

More likely, the decrees against science, censorship of scientific articles and topics, and arbitrary cut-off of research funding.
Were I now embarking on my scientific education, I would pay more attention to foreign languages;  although scientific publications will probably stay with English as a lingua franca for some time, the local language will be needed for living abroad.

But the thing is, that could be very bad for Americas balance of payment, and all sorts of industries.

After making that post, I carried on researching it.

The thing is, just considering medical science, for things, such as new medicines.

It means that instead of new businesses, being created in the US, to make fresh new medicines, developed by these bio-scientists, and not only helping with the health of Americans, it can keep the US, as a leading supplier of biotech stuff, such as selling pharmaceuticals, which can bring in huge amounts of dollars.

Whereas, now they are beginning to leave for other countries, such as the UK, EU and China.  Who will gain the medical benefits of their expertise, world-wide sales of any new medicines and biotechnologies they produce, and those industries.

It can even affect, a countries military strength, and ability to keep up with modern developments, in such technologies.

I.e. America has been a leader, in many of these fields.  Needlessly throwing away such technological leads, may not be a good idea.

I've only given a couple of examples, but these days, there is a bewildering number of scientific, mathematical and engineering fields.

So, I feel sad for America, to apparently just be throwing much of it away, in such an (my opinion) inefficient way.

Good for you for carrying on looking.

The situation is remarkably awful, a completely self-inflicted wound that is far more serious than the tariffs.

[themadhippy]

Looks like tariffs aint going to be the only cause of price rises on  chinese goods in the usa .Starting from october theirs also increased port charges for chinese vessel owners and operators of ships built in china ,although bidden set the wheels in motion  on this one.

We’ll regret it when it’s gone.

You can always put em in a museum and  charged the people a dollar and a half just to see  em.

[TimFox]

Attributed to Confucius:
When Heaven sends down calamities, there is hope of weathering them.
When man brings them upon himself, there is no hope of escape.

[dietert1]

As far as i understand from the experts: The US national debt is the result of the tremendous capital flow from all over the world into US $ and US treasuries. They were considered safe. Although it is kind of a snowball system, as the national debt is increasing rapidly. As soon as China or BRICS can offer more convincing investments the US may run out of funds. The new tariffs can't substitute capital flow into the US.
Above somebody wrote about 30 000 Chinese students at US universities. As far as i remember roughly 2 Mio engineers finish in China every year. Education is their strategy.

Regards, Dieter

[Analog Kid]

Education is their strategy.

Ah yes, those sneaky devils.