Tariffs

[MK14]

Nobody invests in a country at war. The US federal government appears broken. Just try to understand what DOGE is doing to the social security system. Other government agencies already disappeared.

I agree, but I'm not commenting further as it would stray too much, into politics.

[MK14]

Because Silicon Valley, or the current best place for stuff like this, in the US.  Can have a wide range of engineers, with just the right sorts of experience.  With further ones, poachable possibly available from existing companies near and far, in the US, and ones who are happy to come and work in the US.

Currently the best place, maybe. In 10 years time when the effects of the gutting of US science are felt, not so much.

And, of course, add in all the incarcerations of tourists and (illegal) deportations of people with valid visas, and who would want to go there.

I worked happily for (decent) US companies for 20 years. Nowadays I would look elsewhere.

I guess the answer is, that things change over time.  I still think 10 or 20 years, is a long time in the future, and things could go either way.  I.e. The US could get better and better again, or it could carry on, on its (apparent?) downwards spiral.

E.g. In the era, around 1929, The Great Depression.  Things could look rather bad for the US.  With some thinking (perhaps), that it would be in an even worse state in 10 or 20 years time.

I think I've read (IIRC), that actually things were reasonable (post 1929), in the US (not in a bad way, but other countries round the world, were more powerful (military wise, at least in some respects, such as navies), maybe richer, or as rich, and more industrialized etc, in some respects).  I'm NOT exactly clear on the details, so take it VERY roughly.

But it was the advent of World War 2, and the massive destruction, harm and removal from the world stages, of many countries round the world.  That helped propel, the US, into the great (opinions can vary), position the US found itself, in the years between the end of world war 2, and recent times.

E.g. The First moon Landing, is rumored?, to technically be as a result of Germany's development of ballistic missiles (e.g. the V2), rocket technology and the mass removal/transfer of many prominent Physicists and rocket scientists of the time (from Germany) to the US.  That helped them be able to develop it (the rocket), and be the first to (manned flight) land on the Moon.

Along with other technologies (such as Nuclear bombs, via the UK and some of those Physicists + many Americans), ballistic missiles, the start of modern submarine technologies, and maybe other stuff.  But to avoid massive walls of text, I will stop now.

Edit: Attempted to improve historical accuracy.

[tggzzz]

Because Silicon Valley, or the current best place for stuff like this, in the US.  Can have a wide range of engineers, with just the right sorts of experience.  With further ones, poachable possibly available from existing companies near and far, in the US, and ones who are happy to come and work in the US.

Currently the best place, maybe. In 10 years time when the effects of the gutting of US science are felt, not so much.

And, of course, add in all the incarcerations of tourists and (illegal) deportations of people with valid visas, and who would want to go there.

I worked happily for (decent) US companies for 20 years. Nowadays I would look elsewhere.

I guess the answer is, that things change over time.  I still think 10 or 20 years, is a long time in the future, and things could go either way.  I.e. The US could get better and better again, or it could carry on, on its (apparent?) downwards spiral.
...
But it was the advent of World War 2, and the massive destruction, harm and removal from the world stages, of many countries round the world.  That helped propel, the US, into the great (opinions can vary), position the US found itself, in the years between the end of world war 2, and recent times.

When the UK was the principal industrial power, "Britain ruled the waves" and was "the world's policeman" - in order to protect its trade, trade routes and investments.

After WW2 the US was the principal industrial power, and so took on the mantle of "the world's policeman" for the same reasons.

Now the US is backing away from that, who will perform that role? Be familiar with the extent and reach of China's "belt and road initiative", including where they are building deep-water harbours (hint: not Panama!).

E.g. The First moon Landing, is rumored?, to technically be as a result of Germany's development of ballistic missiles (e.g. the V2), rocket technology and the mass removal/transfer of many prominent Physicists and rocket scientists of the time (from Germany) to the US.  That helped them be able to develop it (the rocket), and be the first to (manned flight) land on the Moon.

Rumoured?!

I presume you are aware that all the successful US rockets up until the 80s originated from people in Huntsville, Alabama. That's where Werner von Braun and many of the other people spirited away from Peenemunde ended up. Even to a pre-teen child that was well known in the 60s, wasn't hidden but wasn't dwelt upon.

I presume you are aware of von Braun's history: "I'm responsible for making [V2s] go up, where they come down is somebody else's responsibility".

[MK14]

E.g. The First moon Landing, is rumored?, to technically be as a result of Germany's development of ballistic missiles (e.g. the V2), rocket technology and the mass removal/transfer of many prominent Physicists and rocket scientists of the time (from Germany) to the US.  That helped them be able to develop it (the rocket), and be the first to (manned flight) land on the Moon.

Rumoured?!

I presume you are aware that all the successful US rockets up until the 80s originated from people in Huntsville, Alabama. That's where Werner von Braun and many of the other people spirited away from Peenemunde ended up. Even to a pre-teen child that was well known in the 60s, wasn't hidden but wasn't dwelt upon.

I presume you are aware of von Braun's history: "I'm responsible for making [V2s] go up, where they come down is somebody else's responsibility".

I agree.  It is me being very precautious/defensive, on the forum.  Because there is room for me to get things wrong, and/or not explain it well enough and/or the very big, world-wide audience here, can cause differences of opinion (even of facts) to occur.

Some people, sometimes (seem) to say that the history books, are written by the victors, and don't always 100% reflect the absolute 100% historical truth.

Edit: Removed section that could trigger, more political discussion.  +typo (precautious).

[tszaboo]

But it's all about the perception of stability.  This is the real damage No.47 has caused.  America no longer looks as stable and reliable for investors.

There was like 2 weeks of turmoil.
Meanwhile deals were made with Softbank and Apple to invest combined a trillion dollars.

It's like having a magician, and people are always looking at the wrong thing.
The only mistake was made when they demonstrated the capability of shutting down some weapons systems, which made half the EU look for our domestic suppliers instead of the US MIC.

[tom66]

But it's all about the perception of stability.  This is the real damage No.47 has caused.  America no longer looks as stable and reliable for investors.

There was like 2 weeks of turmoil.
Meanwhile deals were made with Softbank and Apple to invest combined a trillion dollars.

It's like having a magician, and people are always looking at the wrong thing.
The only mistake was made when they demonstrated the capability of shutting down some weapons systems, which made half the EU look for our domestic suppliers instead of the US MIC.

It's not just the two weeks of turmoil, it's the longer term impacts on the US economy.

He isn't a magician, he's a bull in a china shop.  It just so happens that sometimes he doesn't wreck absolutely everything there and people say, "see, it wasn't so bad was it now?"

[Zero999]

Excellent articles from Nate Silver (former FiveThirtyEight statistician & writer) on the tariff situation. These are free, you don't need his subscription.
...
https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-shouldnt-rely-on-markets-to-tame

That's looking at the wrong market; the stock market indicates what people think of (the future of) companies.

The 10year Treasury bond market indicates what investors think of the government, especially the risk of lending money to the government. That's become 10% worse (4.0%->4.4%) in the past week, an enormous shift.

What killed the UK's idiotic Liz Truss "reforms" was that they spooked the bond market; we are still feeling the bad effect in the form of increased debt repayment.

No it's lockdown we're currently feeling the effect of. Truss' lunacy was quickly reversed. Boris's is still casting a long shadow.

The consequences of Truss' idiotic reforms hit the bond market long after Johnson's idiocies - and continue to affect the bond market. The point is simple: our governance system was so dimwitted that Truss could make idiotic changes, hence our governance system is not as reliable and trustworthy as previously believed.

It's taken  four or five years for the long term economic effects of lockdown to manifest themselves, such as inflation for example, as a result of injecting huge amounts of money into the economy. It's no surprise the market lacks faith in the UK government, given they could pull off a similar stunt in future.

I would not bet against the same happening with the perception of President Chamberlain's "reforms". Compounded, of course, by his remarkable gutting of US science and hence the ability of the country to continue to be at the forefront.

China is more than willing to step up, and many Chinese people call Trump "the nation builder". Not the US nation, of course.
N.B. that has been happening since last year, e.g. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/chuan-jianguo-why-chinese-nationalists-are-cheering-for-donald-trump/articleshow/116293695.cms

That's more of an opinion piece, no links to verifiable facts, other than the part at the end detailing Trumps policies, some of which are sensible, others not.

[tggzzz]

That Times of India article was merely the first search result and early expression I came across.

The point about "comrade nation builder" has been repeated many many times since then, by many many reputable organisations.

Whether or not you agree with that assessment is irrelevant. The significant point is that many Chinese believe it

[zapta]

I see the tariff on China has reached 145%. He forgot to add in the existing 20% yesterday - it's so hard to keep track.

In other news, egg prices have hit a record $6.23 per dozen. Now that is an awkward issue! 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4jjw30d5qt

The 20% is for the fentanyl export from China to the US. It's a separate issue.

The eggs price is due to the Avian Influenza (bird flu) outbreak. Not related.

[tggzzz]

Excellent articles from Nate Silver (former FiveThirtyEight statistician & writer) on the tariff situation. These are free, you don't need his subscription.
...
https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-shouldnt-rely-on-markets-to-tame

That's looking at the wrong market; the stock market indicates what people think of (the future of) companies.

The 10year Treasury bond market indicates what investors think of the government, especially the risk of lending money to the government. That's become 10% worse (4.0%->4.4%) in the past week, an enormous shift.

What killed the UK's idiotic Liz Truss "reforms" was that they spooked the bond market; we are still feeling the bad effect in the form of increased debt repayment.

No it's lockdown we're currently feeling the effect of. Truss' lunacy was quickly reversed. Boris's is still casting a long shadow.

The consequences of Truss' idiotic reforms hit the bond market long after Johnson's idiocies - and continue to affect the bond market. The point is simple: our governance system was so dimwitted that Truss could make idiotic changes, hence our governance system is not as reliable and trustworthy as previously believed.

It's taken  four or five years for the long term economic effects of lockdown to manifest themselves, such as inflation for example, as a result of injecting huge amounts of money into the economy. It's no surprise the market lacks faith in the UK government, given they could pull off a similar stunt in future.

From what I can remember, you seem to have an obsession about covid and blame everything on it. Sure there are long-term effects from the covid QE.

But those effects are irrelevant to the Liz Truss idiocy. All you have to do is look at how soon and how fast the bond market went bonkers after Liz Truss announced her unfunded and policies, and refused to let the OBR assess them. That indicates the reaction was nothing to do with covid QE. The bond market has never quite recovered from Truss.

[Gyro]

...
The eggs price is due to the Avian Influenza (bird flu) outbreak. Not related.

He was fast enough to take credit for the eggs price dropping - due to an easing of the bird flu outbreak. A silly thing to make an election oops, competition issue of.

[zapta]

...
The eggs price is due to the Avian Influenza (bird flu) outbreak. Not related.

He was fast enough to take credit for the eggs price dropping - due to an easing of the bird flu outbreak. A silly thing to make an election oops, competition issue of.

Type this into ChatGPT and see what you get "Did the Trump administration have any policies changes regarding the recent bird flue that affected the egg prices?"

[Gyro]

Why would I want to type anything into ChatGPT? I don't trust AI to give substantive or accurate answers.


EDIT: Not forgetting that No47 publicly praised his agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, for doing a "good job" at getting the price down just the other week. You're saying she hasn't done anything? You need to look deeper than what you are 'fed' or the yoke will be on you.

[floobydust]

Alcohol Preps Notice of issuance of final determination concerning alcohol prep pads
{some info}
USA: Product design and development
Taiwan: production of nonwoven textile fabric
china: fabric cutting, isopropyl/water fab and saturation, packaging and boxing.
Ruling: "Based on the analysis above, we find that the country of origin of the subject alcohol prep pads is Taiwan"
----------------------------------
2025-04-03 U.S.  U.S. Customs and Border Protection determining country of origin for Konica /Minolta Multi-function printers.
Notice of Issuance of Final Determination Concerning Multifunction Digital Printers (two years for his lol.)
{some info}
Japan: product design and development, manufacture drum, G1 lens, toner cart.
china: manufacture CPU board, G2 lens, polygonal motor, fusing unit, 2nd Image transfer Roller Unit -> Mexico for final assy.
Thailand: manufacture SSD, laser diode
Mexico: manufacture paper feed unit, assemble fusing unit, do final assembly, test and cal.
Ruling: "Based on the facts and analysis set forth above, the country of origin of the Minerva SSBK MFP will be considered Mexico for purposes of U.S. Government procurement." 

I wonder how many people realize it's no different than the automotive industry - the supply chain, the manufacturing chain is very complicated thanks to globalism.
These Trump tariffs will not only be a disaster to ascertain COO but will hurt the wrong country. It's another aspect of the failure.
For now, semiconductors are not affected I believe.

[Analog Kid]

Just try to understand what DOGE is doing to the social security system. Other government agencies already disappeared.

Wellll, that's an interesting one, because guess what? it turns out that even Republicans--even MAGA Republicans--rely on, are used to relying on, and expect to be able to continue relying on Social Security.

It's what they refer to here in the US as one of the "third rails of politics".

A "living on SS myself" K

[TimFox]

Just try to understand what DOGE is doing to the social security system. Other government agencies already disappeared.

Wellll, that's an interesting one, because guess what? it turns out that even Republicans--even MAGA Republicans--rely on, are used to relying on, and expect to be able to continue relying on Social Security.

It's what they refer to here in the US as one of the "third rails of politics".

A "living on SS myself" K

The long lines on sidewalks of elderly people in walkers trying to access local Social Security offices in retirement-heavy locations in "red" states may well have an effect on popular sentiment.

[Wallace Gasiewicz]

What "Long Lines"     Where???  Which States??     
I just drove by a SS Office,   where did the line go??

[Analog Kid]

What "Long Lines"     Where???  Which States??     
I just drove by a SS Office,   where did the line go??

Just wait. The rule changes requiring SS recipients to appear in person at an office, rather than over the phone or online, are just now going into effect.
Give it some time, you'll see. (Unless the rules are somehow rescinded, which is always a possibility.)

[TimFox]

What "Long Lines"     Where???  Which States??     
I just drove by a SS Office,   where did the line go??

Just wait. The rule changes requiring SS recipients to appear in person at an office, rather than over the phone or online, are just now going into effect.
Give it some time, you'll see. (Unless the rules are somehow rescinded, which is always a possibility.)

See, among other news items, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-04-09/trump-doge-social-security-cuts-seniors
Other things you may see on Google search are out of date, referring to improvements made before the current situation.

Another reason not to trust the Google AI summaries:
Today's search on Google had an article from the Social Security Administration in 2024 about progress in shortening lines at the top of the articles cited.
News reports starting from March, 2025 do not appear until the second page of the search results.
Apparently, the Google summary at the very top merely repeated statements (probably true at that time) from the December 2024 SSA article.

[bson]

The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?

[TimFox]

The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?

That was the rationale behind the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930.  The rest is history.
"Shutting down trade" is rather extreme.

[tautech]

The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?

And then how to redress the US deficit ?

Nearly 200yrs ago forcing China into trading to redress the same issue started the Opium wars....not something you wanna get into with modern day China.......

[tom66]

The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?

What is, in principle, problematic about having a trade imbalance?  It is highly unlikely that any country will have truly balanced trade, so if some imbalance is acceptable, how much should a country aim for? 

I'd agree that it's not good that so much has been exported from the US in terms of industrial basis; it should be possible for every country to be self-sufficient in defence and core technology, for instance.  But, unless customers are willing to pay twice the price for an all-American iPhone, there is always going to be manufacturing in cheaper countries.  Where is the line drawn?

[Analog Kid]

The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?

Clearly a lot of people aren't thinking straight on this, or not at all:
There's nothing inherently wrong with trade deficits, in and of themselves.
People seem to conflate or confuse them with other kinds of deficits, like GDP deficits, which are harmful.
Just because we import more from Country X than we export to them doesn't mean that our economy is about to collapse because of that.

Please watch the video in this post here for a much better explanation than I can give.

And again, regarding China, which is somehow, absurdly, seen as "cheating" or otherwise taking unfair advantage of us.
What ridiculous bullshit! It's as if they came over here, demanded that we shut down all our factories and somehow took all our production to their country, against our will. Pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened.

Look: we've been enjoying the benefits of their far lower manufacturing costs for, what? going on a couple of decades now. Providing us with all the cheap crap we crave.

Imposing those exorbitant tariffs on them is like cutting off your own nose to spite your face.

[watchmaker]

The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?

And then how to redress the US deficit ?

Nearly 200yrs ago forcing China into trading to redress the same issue started the Opium wars....not something you wanna get into with modern day China.......

How many people understand what the Opium Wars were about?  The Queen was forcing China to buy the opium.  I have read the letter from the Empress writing to the Queen as one mother to another detailing the impacts of this move.