Author Topic: Tariffs  (Read 413027 times)

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Online Analog Kid

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #450 on: April 11, 2025, 09:53:24 pm »
What "Long Lines"???     Where???  Which States??     
I just drove by a SS Office,   where did the line go??
Just wait. The rule changes requiring SS recipients to appear in person at an office, rather than over the phone or online, are just now going into effect.
Give it some time, you'll see. (Unless the rules are somehow rescinded, which is always a possibility.)

See, among other news items, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-04-09/trump-doge-social-security-cuts-seniors
Non-paywalled version here.
 
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Online tautech

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #451 on: April 11, 2025, 10:31:26 pm »
The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?
And then how to redress the US deficit ?

Nearly 200yrs ago forcing China into trading to redress the same issue started the Opium wars....not something you wanna get into with modern day China.......

How many people understand what the Opium Wars were about?  The Queen was forcing China to buy the opium.  I have read the letter from the Empress writing to the Queen as one mother to another detailing the impacts of this move.
AFAIK it all started with tea, a highly desired commodity back in them days.
Looking outward from the Chinese side, the west didn't offer anything a 4k yr old civilization really wanted so there was minimal reciprocal trade.

But the east has westernized much since them days......
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Online tszaboo

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #452 on: April 11, 2025, 10:39:30 pm »
The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?
Have you tried making something that other countries need and selling it to them?
 
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Online tggzzz

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #453 on: April 11, 2025, 10:48:10 pm »
The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?
And then how to redress the US deficit ?

Nearly 200yrs ago forcing China into trading to redress the same issue started the Opium wars....not something you wanna get into with modern day China.......

How many people understand what the Opium Wars were about?  The Queen was forcing China to buy the opium.  I have read the letter from the Empress writing to the Queen as one mother to another detailing the impacts of this move.

Not quite.

The British Empire wanted tea, something China had a monopoly on. The British Empire was willing to pah, but the Chinese only accepted silver bullion - which wasn't available.

So the British Empire supplied opium until there was a demand. At that point the Chinese started accepting opium in payment for tea. The empire also gained a 150 year lease on Hong Kong g.

When tea plants were smuggled out and started to grow in India (etc), the bullion supply became moot.

Compare and contrast that with the current situation :)
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
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Offline zapta

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #454 on: April 11, 2025, 10:53:57 pm »
Compare and contrast that with the current situation :)

The main difference that came to mind is that the British empire collapsed and the remains are run over by Islamists.

Hopefully the US will protect itself better.
 

Online tggzzz

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #455 on: April 11, 2025, 11:05:10 pm »
Compare and contrast that with the current situation :)

The main difference that came to mind is that the British empire collapsed and the remains are run over by Islamists.

For.completely unrelated reasons a century later, and rubbish racist/xenophobic propaganda respectively.
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
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Offline u666sa

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #456 on: April 12, 2025, 01:11:40 am »
Finally tariffs explained




We have until May or June, and all of aliexpress will be killed.
 

Offline Andy Chee

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #457 on: April 12, 2025, 01:49:32 am »
The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue.
You are incorrectly assuming that a trade deficit is always bad.  Alternatively, you (and Trump for that matter) are misunderstanding what a trade deficit actually is.

For example, after paying $50,000 in cash to a dealership for my new car, I now have a $50,000 trade deficit with the dealership. 

Financial deficit is NOT the same as trade deficit.

For a geopolitical example, think of USA importing diamonds and coffee.
 

Offline MT

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #458 on: April 12, 2025, 02:14:09 am »
China 125% v.s USA 145%
Why Shooting Holes in Our Trading Boat is Foolish - Ronald Reagan
 

Offline JPortici

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #459 on: April 12, 2025, 05:48:17 am »
The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?

US Clearly has lands for agricolture and manufacturing capability for industry.
So the problem is not that they don't produce goods, rather that we do not want them.
At the beginning of the thread some of us asked: who really wants american cars, or american food, or amercan airplanes at this point? costs the same or more but much inferior quality. Clearly this can't continue

we do care about entertainment and services and they should be glad we don't tax them nearly enough what they would owe us.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2025, 05:51:24 am by JPortici »
 

Offline dietert1

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #460 on: April 12, 2025, 06:11:45 am »
The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue.
You are incorrectly assuming that a trade deficit is always bad.  Alternatively, you (and Trump for that matter) are misunderstanding what a trade deficit actually is.

For example, after paying $50,000 in cash to a dealership for my new car, I now have a $50,000 trade deficit with the dealership. 

Financial deficit is NOT the same as trade deficit.

For a geopolitical example, think of USA importing diamonds and coffee.
Yes, there is a difference between jewelry and consumables. If the US imported items have been consumed including foreign investments, then the trade deficit turns into a real deficit. I mean if you have nothing valuable left to sell (like diamonds).
I remember the TTIP trade union talks between EU and USA. They failed as the EU did not want the US offers: Oversized cars with high consumption, chlorine chicken, gene food, "Buy american", incompatible standards. Those were the years of Victoria Nulands "Fuck the EU" in the context of the Ukraine revolution.
On Thursday China contracted 2.4 Mio tons of soybeans from Brasil, going away from US offers. They are also buying other commodities from Brasil.

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Offline u666sa

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #461 on: April 12, 2025, 10:17:28 am »
Don't forget boys that we could soon see war around Taiwan. Not a surprise, new president in the U.S., new war, happens all the time.

Thing is, United States has put China into position where its economy is going to take a major hit. Thus far, the only thing that prevented China from taking action against Taiwan is its trade with United States. But now it doesn't matter. In fact, China could attack Taiwan on purpose just to ruin global trade.

Why China wants Taiwan? Because Taiwan is historic Chinese territory.

Think of not all only the stuff that is made in Taiwan, but also think about all the trading routes around that area.




Frankly, I'm not surprised, I'm getting comfortable here. New U.S. president always means a new war. Trump is about to start a major war which will test U.S. allies. I mean, unless I'm over-reacting here and unless China will take a hit in trade and just quietly sit while the world around it is reshaped. I don't think they will. I think they will disrupt the scene by going to war with Taiwan.
 
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Offline tom66

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #462 on: April 12, 2025, 10:35:23 am »
It's a good point, although since US trade only makes up about 14% of China's trade, I'm not sure it's enough to fully insulate China from the consequences of an invasion of Taiwan.  China would be sanctioned by Europe like never seen before, since the EU views Taiwan as a significant partner.

It's another reason the trade war is bloody retarded, though; it gives Xi one less reason to not invade.

I would argue regardless of history, it's important we protect Taiwan's sovereignty because it is a democratic state and a developed, high technology economy, we do not want to see that fall to the CCP. 
 

Offline watchmaker

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #463 on: April 12, 2025, 10:36:09 am »
The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?
And then how to redress the US deficit ?

Nearly 200yrs ago forcing China into trading to redress the same issue started the Opium wars....not something you wanna get into with modern day China.......

How many people understand what the Opium Wars were about?  The Queen was forcing China to buy the opium.  I have read the letter from the Empress writing to the Queen as one mother to another detailing the impacts of this move.
AFAIK it all started with tea, a highly desired commodity back in them days.
Looking outward from the Chinese side, the west didn't offer anything a 4k yr old civilization really wanted so there was minimal reciprocal trade.

But the east has westernized much since them days......

Yes, it was like the slave trade in the Atlantic.  Food and lumber to the sugar isles from the colonies, sugar to England (for their tea from China), pick up slaves in Africa, sugar isles.  Rum to the colonies.  Repeat.

One fact often neglected, the Stamp Act was not repealed by protests in the colonies.  It was repealed because the colonies started selling lumber and food to French and Spanish sugar isles to avoid the Stamp.  Since every sq ft (meter) of land on sugar isles was devoted to sugar production, they were dependent on the colonies for food and lumber.  Stamp Act directly threatened the owners (MPs) revenue.

In the East, England had opium in India and needed tea from China.

ALL about trade deficits.

BTW, I have a trade deficit with my dentist/attorney/plumber.  With all the money I have given him, he never ONCE bought anything from me.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2025, 11:38:05 am by watchmaker »
 

Online Zero999

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #464 on: April 12, 2025, 10:54:33 am »
Excellent articles from Nate Silver (former FiveThirtyEight statistician & writer) on the tariff situation. These are free, you don't need his subscription.
...
https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-shouldnt-rely-on-markets-to-tame

That's looking at the wrong market; the stock market indicates what people think of (the future of) companies.

The 10year Treasury bond market indicates what investors think of the government, especially the risk of lending money to the government. That's become 10% worse (4.0%->4.4%) in the past week, an enormous shift.

What killed the UK's idiotic Liz Truss "reforms" was that they spooked the bond market; we are still feeling the bad effect in the form of increased debt repayment.
No it's lockdown we're currently feeling the effect of. Truss' lunacy was quickly reversed. Boris's is still casting a long shadow.

The consequences of Truss' idiotic reforms hit the bond market long after Johnson's idiocies - and continue to affect the bond market. The point is simple: our governance system was so dimwitted that Truss could make idiotic changes, hence our governance system is not as reliable and trustworthy as previously believed.
It's taken  four or five years for the long term economic effects of lockdown to manifest themselves, such as inflation for example, as a result of injecting huge amounts of money into the economy. It's no surprise the market lacks faith in the UK government, given they could pull off a similar stunt in future.

From what I can remember, you seem to have an obsession about covid and blame everything on it. Sure there are long-term effects from the covid QE.

But those effects are irrelevant to the Liz Truss idiocy. All you have to do is look at how soon and how fast the bond market went bonkers after Liz Truss announced her unfunded and policies, and refused to let the OBR assess them. That indicates the reaction was nothing to do with covid QE. The bond market has never quite recovered from Truss.
No, I blame the government, not COVID. It appears as though you have an obsession with Truss. Correlation doesn't mean causation.

Anyway, what does this have to do with tariffs?

It's a good point, although since US trade only makes up about 14% of China's trade, I'm not sure it's enough to fully insulate China from the consequences of an invasion of Taiwan.  China would be sanctioned by Europe like never seen before, since the EU views Taiwan as a significant partner.

It's another reason the trade war is bloody retarded, though; it gives Xi one less reason to not invade.

I would argue regardless of history, it's important we protect Taiwan's sovereignty because it is a democratic state and a developed, high technology economy, we do not want to see that fall to the CCP. 
Perhaps we're overestimating the impact of this?

It's possible for the US to become self-sufficient and there's often a huge mark-up on Chinese goods anyway, so tariffs won't have the same proportional effect on the price paid by the end customer.
 

Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #465 on: April 12, 2025, 01:17:06 pm »
The EU did not sanction Russia nearly enough over the Ukraine war,     
They probably will do the same if there is a Taiwan War.
 

Offline all_repair

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #466 on: April 12, 2025, 01:27:20 pm »
The U.S. has a trade deficit just shy of a trillion dollars for goods and services (including online and financial services).  Clearly this can't continue, and with neither the EU or China showing any interest in resolving it, I don't see any other recourse than to start shutting down trade.  Do you?  If so, what?
The figure being pushed by Trump does not include major US export of services.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/us-exports-services-trump-tariff-calculations-fe481e2b
 

Offline MonarkeIV

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #467 on: April 12, 2025, 01:43:41 pm »
I didn't sort through all 19 pages, but I'm sure recently it has been stated there is a 90 day pause on Tariffs with the exception of CHIIIINA (China) which as has been previously stated 145%.   I believe for parts which are already in stock from suppliers like Mouser and Digi-Key the new tariffs will not apply.

I am however afraid to look, as my eyes may hit the ceiling.

This is my go to for US and world news.  TYT (The Young Turks)  aka The Young Upstarts.

Trump's MANIACAL Trade War Gets GLOWING Reviews On Fox News
https://youtu.be/JkNNAjiyb18?si=dYCjPf-7B1Y5befu

China Retaliates As Trump's Trade War RUNS AWAY FROM HIM
https://youtu.be/f5sVpOL2YVM?si=loU5Zfc6ceR_QXMW

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Online tggzzz

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #468 on: April 12, 2025, 02:09:23 pm »
Excellent articles from Nate Silver (former FiveThirtyEight statistician & writer) on the tariff situation. These are free, you don't need his subscription.
...
https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-shouldnt-rely-on-markets-to-tame

That's looking at the wrong market; the stock market indicates what people think of (the future of) companies.

The 10year Treasury bond market indicates what investors think of the government, especially the risk of lending money to the government. That's become 10% worse (4.0%->4.4%) in the past week, an enormous shift.

What killed the UK's idiotic Liz Truss "reforms" was that they spooked the bond market; we are still feeling the bad effect in the form of increased debt repayment.
No it's lockdown we're currently feeling the effect of. Truss' lunacy was quickly reversed. Boris's is still casting a long shadow.

The consequences of Truss' idiotic reforms hit the bond market long after Johnson's idiocies - and continue to affect the bond market. The point is simple: our governance system was so dimwitted that Truss could make idiotic changes, hence our governance system is not as reliable and trustworthy as previously believed.
It's taken  four or five years for the long term economic effects of lockdown to manifest themselves, such as inflation for example, as a result of injecting huge amounts of money into the economy. It's no surprise the market lacks faith in the UK government, given they could pull off a similar stunt in future.

From what I can remember, you seem to have an obsession about covid and blame everything on it. Sure there are long-term effects from the covid QE.

But those effects are irrelevant to the Liz Truss idiocy. All you have to do is look at how soon and how fast the bond market went bonkers after Liz Truss announced her unfunded and policies, and refused to let the OBR assess them. That indicates the reaction was nothing to do with covid QE. The bond market has never quite recovered from Truss.
No, I blame the government, not COVID.

Clearly I was too brief; I'll rephrase it. It appears to me you have an obsession with the measures necessary to deal with the new, unknown and clearly dangerous disease covid.

Quote
It appears as though you have an obsession with Truss. Correlation doesn't mean causation.

Anyway, what does this have to do with tariffs?

No obsession with Truss, since she was (correctly and sensibly) rapidly defenestrated. I have zero respect for the people and process which put that chancer in power, ditto Bonkers Brexit Boris.

I'll spell out in words of one syllable what that has to do with tariffs, in the hope that other people will be able to draw parallels.
  • Truss comes to power
  • Truss (and Kwarteng) rapidly announce radical, ill-considered, unfunded changes
  • Truss bypasses the normal (OBR) processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed changes are realistic and achievable
  • Truss makes the changes
  • Everybody tells Truss that the consequences will be bad; Truss ignores them
  • The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Truss and the UK processes which allowed her to implement her idiocies
  • Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
  • Widespread protests cause her own Party to defenestrate her
  • Truss' changes are reversed causing the bond markets and pensions to largely recover but not completely recover
... all within 49 days, making her the shortest lived PM ever.

  • Chamberlain[1] comes to power
  • Chamberlain rapidly announces radical, ill-considered tariffs
  • Chamberlain bypasses the normal processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed tariffs are realistic
  • Chamberlain makes the changes
  • Everybody (except his appointed yes men) tell Chamberlain that the consequences will be bad; Chamberlain ignores them
  • The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Chamberlain and the US processes which allowed him to implement his idiocies
  • Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
  • Widespread protests, but no mechanism to allow anybody to defenestrate him
  • Chamberlain hasn't reversed his tariffs, but even if he does then many countries/funds/people won't trust him nor the USA. The disruption will continue
Although there are some differences in the specific changes, there are so many parallels that the history lesson is useful.

[1] or, if you prefer the Chinese moniker, "comrade nation builder"
« Last Edit: April 12, 2025, 02:15:34 pm by tggzzz »
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
Having fun doing more, with less
 
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Offline zapta

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #469 on: April 12, 2025, 02:31:52 pm »
This is my go to for US and world news.  TYT (The Young Turks)  aka The Young Upstarts.

This puts you on the far left of the political spectrum. Try to diversify your sources.
 

Online Zero999

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #470 on: April 12, 2025, 02:34:35 pm »
Excellent articles from Nate Silver (former FiveThirtyEight statistician & writer) on the tariff situation. These are free, you don't need his subscription.
...
https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-shouldnt-rely-on-markets-to-tame

That's looking at the wrong market; the stock market indicates what people think of (the future of) companies.

The 10year Treasury bond market indicates what investors think of the government, especially the risk of lending money to the government. That's become 10% worse (4.0%->4.4%) in the past week, an enormous shift.

What killed the UK's idiotic Liz Truss "reforms" was that they spooked the bond market; we are still feeling the bad effect in the form of increased debt repayment.
No it's lockdown we're currently feeling the effect of. Truss' lunacy was quickly reversed. Boris's is still casting a long shadow.

The consequences of Truss' idiotic reforms hit the bond market long after Johnson's idiocies - and continue to affect the bond market. The point is simple: our governance system was so dimwitted that Truss could make idiotic changes, hence our governance system is not as reliable and trustworthy as previously believed.
It's taken  four or five years for the long term economic effects of lockdown to manifest themselves, such as inflation for example, as a result of injecting huge amounts of money into the economy. It's no surprise the market lacks faith in the UK government, given they could pull off a similar stunt in future.

From what I can remember, you seem to have an obsession about covid and blame everything on it. Sure there are long-term effects from the covid QE.

But those effects are irrelevant to the Liz Truss idiocy. All you have to do is look at how soon and how fast the bond market went bonkers after Liz Truss announced her unfunded and policies, and refused to let the OBR assess them. That indicates the reaction was nothing to do with covid QE. The bond market has never quite recovered from Truss.
No, I blame the government, not COVID.

Clearly I was too brief; I'll rephrase it. It appears to me you have an obsession with the measures necessary to deal with the new, unknown and clearly dangerous disease covid.
Necessary? Sweden and Japan did pretty well, without all that lunacy.
Quote
Quote
It appears as though you have an obsession with Truss. Correlation doesn't mean causation.

Anyway, what does this have to do with tariffs?

No obsession with Truss, since she was (correctly and sensibly) rapidly defenestrated. I have zero respect for the people and process which put that chancer in power, ditto Bonkers Brexit Boris.

I'll spell out in words of one syllable what that has to do with tariffs, in the hope that other people will be able to draw parallels.
  • Truss comes to power
  • Truss (and Kwarteng) rapidly announce radical, ill-considered, unfunded changes
  • Truss bypasses the normal (OBR) processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed changes are realistic and achievable
  • Truss makes the changes
  • Everybody tells Truss that the consequences will be bad; Truss ignores them
  • The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Truss and the UK processes which allowed her to implement her idiocies
  • Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
  • Widespread protests cause her own Party to defenestrate her
  • Truss' changes are reversed causing the bond markets and pensions to largely recover but not completely recover
... all within 49 days, making her the shortest lived PM ever.

  • Chamberlain[1] comes to power
  • Chamberlain rapidly announces radical, ill-considered tariffs
  • Chamberlain bypasses the normal processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed tariffs are realistic
  • Chamberlain makes the changes
  • Everybody (except his appointed yes men) tell Chamberlain that the consequences will be bad; Chamberlain ignores them
  • The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Chamberlain and the US processes which allowed him to implement his idiocies
  • Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
  • Widespread protests, but no mechanism to allow anybody to defenestrate him
  • Chamberlain hasn't reversed his tariffs, but even if he does then many countries/funds/people won't trust him nor the USA. The disruption will continue
Although there are some differences in the specific changes, there are so many parallels that the history lesson is useful.

[1] or, if you prefer the Chinese moniker, "comrade nation builder"
Basically nothing to do with tariffs then. Bad case of TDS and BDS.
 

Online tggzzz

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #471 on: April 12, 2025, 03:09:46 pm »
Excellent articles from Nate Silver (former FiveThirtyEight statistician & writer) on the tariff situation. These are free, you don't need his subscription.
...
https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-shouldnt-rely-on-markets-to-tame

That's looking at the wrong market; the stock market indicates what people think of (the future of) companies.

The 10year Treasury bond market indicates what investors think of the government, especially the risk of lending money to the government. That's become 10% worse (4.0%->4.4%) in the past week, an enormous shift.

What killed the UK's idiotic Liz Truss "reforms" was that they spooked the bond market; we are still feeling the bad effect in the form of increased debt repayment.
No it's lockdown we're currently feeling the effect of. Truss' lunacy was quickly reversed. Boris's is still casting a long shadow.

The consequences of Truss' idiotic reforms hit the bond market long after Johnson's idiocies - and continue to affect the bond market. The point is simple: our governance system was so dimwitted that Truss could make idiotic changes, hence our governance system is not as reliable and trustworthy as previously believed.
It's taken  four or five years for the long term economic effects of lockdown to manifest themselves, such as inflation for example, as a result of injecting huge amounts of money into the economy. It's no surprise the market lacks faith in the UK government, given they could pull off a similar stunt in future.

From what I can remember, you seem to have an obsession about covid and blame everything on it. Sure there are long-term effects from the covid QE.

But those effects are irrelevant to the Liz Truss idiocy. All you have to do is look at how soon and how fast the bond market went bonkers after Liz Truss announced her unfunded and policies, and refused to let the OBR assess them. That indicates the reaction was nothing to do with covid QE. The bond market has never quite recovered from Truss.
No, I blame the government, not COVID.

Clearly I was too brief; I'll rephrase it. It appears to me you have an obsession with the measures necessary to deal with the new, unknown and clearly dangerous disease covid.
Necessary? Sweden and Japan did pretty well, without all that lunacy.

Firstly that's arguable, secondly they have significantly different geography and sociology, and thirdly (and most importantly) which bit of "unknown" do you not remember?

Even if your points were valid, arguing after the event with 20:20 hindsight is irrelevant w.r.t. the decisions that had to be made at the time with very imperfect knowledge.

Quote
Quote
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It appears as though you have an obsession with Truss. Correlation doesn't mean causation.

Anyway, what does this have to do with tariffs?

No obsession with Truss, since she was (correctly and sensibly) rapidly defenestrated. I have zero respect for the people and process which put that chancer in power, ditto Bonkers Brexit Boris.

I'll spell out in words of one syllable what that has to do with tariffs, in the hope that other people will be able to draw parallels.
  • Truss comes to power
  • Truss (and Kwarteng) rapidly announce radical, ill-considered, unfunded changes
  • Truss bypasses the normal (OBR) processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed changes are realistic and achievable
  • Truss makes the changes
  • Everybody tells Truss that the consequences will be bad; Truss ignores them
  • The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Truss and the UK processes which allowed her to implement her idiocies
  • Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
  • Widespread protests cause her own Party to defenestrate her
  • Truss' changes are reversed causing the bond markets and pensions to largely recover but not completely recover
... all within 49 days, making her the shortest lived PM ever.

  • Chamberlain[1] comes to power
  • Chamberlain rapidly announces radical, ill-considered tariffs
  • Chamberlain bypasses the normal processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed tariffs are realistic
  • Chamberlain makes the changes
  • Everybody (except his appointed yes men) tell Chamberlain that the consequences will be bad; Chamberlain ignores them
  • The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Chamberlain and the US processes which allowed him to implement his idiocies
  • Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
  • Widespread protests, but no mechanism to allow anybody to defenestrate him
  • Chamberlain hasn't reversed his tariffs, but even if he does then many countries/funds/people won't trust him nor the USA. The disruption will continue
Although there are some differences in the specific changes, there are so many parallels that the history lesson is useful.

[1] or, if you prefer the Chinese moniker, "comrade nation builder"
Basically nothing to do with tariffs then. Bad case of TDS and BDS.

So you can't see the similarities. That's not unexpected.

You seem to be ignoring the consequences of SDS and EDS.
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
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Offline dave j

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #472 on: April 12, 2025, 03:24:03 pm »
I didn't sort through all 19 pages, but I'm sure recently it has been stated there is a 90 day pause on Tariffs with the exception of CHIIIINA (China) which as has been previously stated 145%.   I believe for parts which are already in stock from suppliers like Mouser and Digi-Key the new tariffs will not apply.

You may be able to breath easily after all - Trump administration to exempt smartphones and computers from China tariffs
Quote
Donald Trump’s presidential administration is exempting smartphones and computers from the 125% levies imposed on imports from China as well as other reciprocal tariffs.

...

The CBP’s notice follows concerns from tech companies that the price of electronics for US consumers might surge with many of them manufactured in China. The notice also contained exemptions for additional electronics and components, such as memory cards, solar cells and semiconductors.

Story developing …

I'm guessing the last line means full details aren't available yet.
I'm not David L Jones. Apparently I actually do have to point this out.
 

Offline wilfred

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #473 on: April 12, 2025, 03:39:04 pm »

I'm guessing the last line means full details aren't available yet.

It means they're still writing the script. No-one knows how this story ends. What a shambolic approach to try to onshore manufacturing. How hard would it have been to do it in an organised way without the uncertainty that will stop investment in its tracks.

But trump has blinked so he's in a much weaker position from now on.

I can not see the tariffs going back up in 90 days. It takes much longer to negotiate a trade deal historically. More like 1-2 years.
 

Online tggzzz

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Re: Tariffs
« Reply #474 on: April 12, 2025, 03:51:01 pm »
I didn't sort through all 19 pages, but I'm sure recently it has been stated there is a 90 day pause on Tariffs with the exception of CHIIIINA (China) which as has been previously stated 145%.   I believe for parts which are already in stock from suppliers like Mouser and Digi-Key the new tariffs will not apply.

You may be able to breath easily after all - Trump administration to exempt smartphones and computers from China tariffs
Quote
Donald Trump’s presidential administration is exempting smartphones and computers from the 125% levies imposed on imports from China as well as other reciprocal tariffs.

...

The CBP’s notice follows concerns from tech companies that the price of electronics for US consumers might surge with many of them manufactured in China. The notice also contained exemptions for additional electronics and components, such as memory cards, solar cells and semiconductors.

Story developing …

I'm guessing the last line means full details aren't available yet.

Will they ever be? Given the instigator[1] and his record over the past week, can they ever be?

[1] This report is all too plausible :(
“He’s at the peak of just not giving a f--- anymore,” said a White House official with knowledge of Trump’s thinking. “Bad news stories? Doesn’t give a f---. He’s going to do what he’s going to do. He’s going to do what he promised to do on the campaign trail.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/04/trump-tariffs-reason-advisers/ or https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/06/trump-tariffs-american-era-uncertainty
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
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