Tariffs

[themadhippy]

 china should stick two fingers up to the usa and increase its prices by 125% on all non tarrif items shipped to the usa

[coppercone2]

they fixed the bug with exempt smartphones and PC hardware

kinda disappointed, I was hoping to see less smart phones. Does anyone still even like them?

[Zero999]

Excellent articles from Nate Silver (former FiveThirtyEight statistician & writer) on the tariff situation. These are free, you don't need his subscription.
...
https://www.natesilver.net/p/we-shouldnt-rely-on-markets-to-tame

That's looking at the wrong market; the stock market indicates what people think of (the future of) companies.

The 10year Treasury bond market indicates what investors think of the government, especially the risk of lending money to the government. That's become 10% worse (4.0%->4.4%) in the past week, an enormous shift.

What killed the UK's idiotic Liz Truss "reforms" was that they spooked the bond market; we are still feeling the bad effect in the form of increased debt repayment.

No it's lockdown we're currently feeling the effect of. Truss' lunacy was quickly reversed. Boris's is still casting a long shadow.

The consequences of Truss' idiotic reforms hit the bond market long after Johnson's idiocies - and continue to affect the bond market. The point is simple: our governance system was so dimwitted that Truss could make idiotic changes, hence our governance system is not as reliable and trustworthy as previously believed.

It's taken  four or five years for the long term economic effects of lockdown to manifest themselves, such as inflation for example, as a result of injecting huge amounts of money into the economy. It's no surprise the market lacks faith in the UK government, given they could pull off a similar stunt in future.

From what I can remember, you seem to have an obsession about covid and blame everything on it. Sure there are long-term effects from the covid QE.

But those effects are irrelevant to the Liz Truss idiocy. All you have to do is look at how soon and how fast the bond market went bonkers after Liz Truss announced her unfunded and policies, and refused to let the OBR assess them. That indicates the reaction was nothing to do with covid QE. The bond market has never quite recovered from Truss.

No, I blame the government, not COVID.

Clearly I was too brief; I'll rephrase it. It appears to me you have an obsession with the measures necessary to deal with the new, unknown and clearly dangerous disease covid.

Necessary? Sweden and Japan did pretty well, without all that lunacy.

Firstly that's arguable, secondly they have significantly different geography and sociology, and thirdly (and most importantly) which bit of "unknown" do you not remember?

Even if your points were valid, arguing after the event with 20:20 hindsight is irrelevant w.r.t. the decisions that had to be made at the time with very imperfect knowledge.

Geography has little to do with it, but it wouldn't matter even if it did. It was well-known what the effect of shutting down half the economy and schools would be, yet there wasn't conclusive proof it would help in the long run. They should have erred on the side of caution and done the least harmful thing, yet just copied China. Extreme measures require extreme evidence.

It appears as though you have an obsession with Truss. Correlation doesn't mean causation.

Anyway, what does this have to do with tariffs?

No obsession with Truss, since she was (correctly and sensibly) rapidly defenestrated. I have zero respect for the people and process which put that chancer in power, ditto Bonkers Brexit Boris.

I'll spell out in words of one syllable what that has to do with tariffs, in the hope that other people will be able to draw parallels.

• Truss comes to power
• Truss (and Kwarteng) rapidly announce radical, ill-considered, unfunded changes
• Truss bypasses the normal (OBR) processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed changes are realistic and achievable
• Truss makes the changes
• Everybody tells Truss that the consequences will be bad; Truss ignores them
• The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Truss and the UK processes which allowed her to implement her idiocies
• Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
• Widespread protests cause her own Party to defenestrate her
• Truss' changes are reversed causing the bond markets and pensions to largely recover but not completely recover

... all within 49 days, making her the shortest lived PM ever.

• Chamberlain[1] comes to power
• Chamberlain rapidly announces radical, ill-considered tariffs
• Chamberlain bypasses the normal processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed tariffs are realistic
• Chamberlain makes the changes
• Everybody (except his appointed yes men) tell Chamberlain that the consequences will be bad; Chamberlain ignores them
• The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Chamberlain and the US processes which allowed him to implement his idiocies
• Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
• Widespread protests, but no mechanism to allow anybody to defenestrate him
• Chamberlain hasn't reversed his tariffs, but even if he does then many countries/funds/people won't trust him nor the USA. The disruption will continue

Although there are some differences in the specific changes, there are so many parallels that the history lesson is useful.

[1] or, if you prefer the Chinese moniker, "comrade nation builder"

Basically nothing to do with tariffs then. Bad case of TDS and BDS.

So you can't see the similarities. That's not unexpected.

You seem to be ignoring the consequences of SDS and EDS.

The reality is the state we're in has little to do with the above. Lockdown was disastrous, but in reality, it's multi-factorial. I could write a long-winded essay detailing why, but it's against the rules. All I'll say is that both of the main parties are to blame.

[tggzzz]

they fixed the bug with exempt smartphones and PC hardware

Yes, the techbros investment in President Chamberlain has paid off handsomely, hasn't it.

kinda disappointed, I was hoping to see less smart phones. Does anyone still even like them?

For years people complained "Where's the Dick Tracy watch we were promised?". Smartphones stopped that.

[tggzzz]

<snipped>

Necessary? Sweden and Japan did pretty well, without all that lunacy.

Firstly that's arguable, secondly they have significantly different geography and sociology, and thirdly (and most importantly) which bit of "unknown" do you not remember?

Even if your points were valid, arguing after the event with 20:20 hindsight is irrelevant w.r.t. the decisions that had to be made at the time with very imperfect knowledge.

Geography has little to do with it, but it wouldn't matter even if it did. It was well-known what the effect of shutting down half the economy and schools would be, yet there wasn't conclusive proof it would help in the long run. They should have erred on the side of caution and done the least harmful thing, yet just copied China. Extreme measures require extreme evidence.

Still having problems with "unknown" and "20:20 hindsight", we see.

If you want asinine sound bites, try "Extreme dangers require extreme measures."

It appears as though you have an obsession with Truss. Correlation doesn't mean causation.

Anyway, what does this have to do with tariffs?

No obsession with Truss, since she was (correctly and sensibly) rapidly defenestrated. I have zero respect for the people and process which put that chancer in power, ditto Bonkers Brexit Boris.

I'll spell out in words of one syllable what that has to do with tariffs, in the hope that other people will be able to draw parallels.

• Truss comes to power
• Truss (and Kwarteng) rapidly announce radical, ill-considered, unfunded changes
• Truss bypasses the normal (OBR) processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed changes are realistic and achievable
• Truss makes the changes
• Everybody tells Truss that the consequences will be bad; Truss ignores them
• The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Truss and the UK processes which allowed her to implement her idiocies
• Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
• Widespread protests cause her own Party to defenestrate her
• Truss' changes are reversed causing the bond markets and pensions to largely recover but not completely recover

... all within 49 days, making her the shortest lived PM ever.

• Chamberlain[1] comes to power
• Chamberlain rapidly announces radical, ill-considered tariffs
• Chamberlain bypasses the normal processes which are designed to reassure everybody that proposed tariffs are realistic
• Chamberlain makes the changes
• Everybody (except his appointed yes men) tell Chamberlain that the consequences will be bad; Chamberlain ignores them
• The Bond market rapidly decides they can't trust Chamberlain and the US processes which allowed him to implement his idiocies
• Pension values (etc) rapidly fall, Bond costs rapidly rise so the cost of Government borrowing rises and hasn't fallen
• Widespread protests, but no mechanism to allow anybody to defenestrate him
• Chamberlain hasn't reversed his tariffs, but even if he does then many countries/funds/people won't trust him nor the USA. The disruption will continue

Although there are some differences in the specific changes, there are so many parallels that the history lesson is useful.

[1] or, if you prefer the Chinese moniker, "comrade nation builder"

Basically nothing to do with tariffs then. Bad case of TDS and BDS.

So you can't see the similarities. That's not unexpected.

You seem to be ignoring the consequences of SDS and EDS.

The reality is the state we're in has little to do with the above. Lockdown was disastrous, but in reality, it's multi-factorial. I could write a long-winded essay detailing why, but it's against the rules. All I'll say is that both of the main parties are to blame.

Um, that part of the conversation was about tariffs and bond markets, not covid.

[TimFox]

Long before the details were announced, serious people worried about new tariffs, since every interest affected would petition for exemption and the political process to grant exemption might be corrupt or involve favoritism.
Since tariffs usually depend on the commodity as well as exporter, they are more subject to exceptions than general taxes.

[tggzzz]

Long before the details were announced, serious people worried about new tariffs, since every interest affected would petition for exemption and the political process to grant exemption might be corrupt or involve favoritism.
Since tariffs usually depend on the commodity as well as exporter, they are more subject to exceptions than general taxes.

Just so.

Given how "generous" the current administration has been with "not classified military operation details", it would not be surprising to find insider trading on the stock market.

Then add hedge fund owners whispering in credulous ears while shorting stocks and bonds, and there's a lot of money to be made.

It wouldn't surprise me if China doesn't react to the latest walkback on phone and computer tariffs. In that case, it will be entertaining to watch the administration's spin.

[Analog Kid]

Here's one possible rendering of the current US administration's spin:

[tggzzz]

Here's one possible rendering of the current US administration's spin:

(Attachment Link)

Also need to indicate targets becoming smaller and irregular, as in everything except smartphones and computers and...

[BravoV]

Just one week, ... blinked and folded.

[wilfred]

they fixed the bug with exempt smartphones and PC hardware

kinda disappointed, I was hoping to see less smart phones. Does anyone still even like them?

A smartphone is a useful tool but I'm not stuck to it. I saw a dead possum on the street a few days ago and took a photo of it and emailed it to the local council to have it removed. I did that whilst waiting for a tram given that the tram app said I had 5 minutes to wait. Trams aren't late anymore since I have been able to ignore the timetable. I have an electronic copy of a blood test form so I just flash the barcode and I don't have to plan to find it and take it with me. If I find myself in the vicinity and with time on hand I just get it done on the spot. Sometimes I even make a phone call with it. But I have never signed on to Facebook, Twitter et al.

[Bud]

People please stop jumbo quote. Not necessary.

[Exosia]

Just one week, ... blinked and folded.

Well... in a way I'm a little disappointed

[tggzzz]

People please stop jumbo quote. Not necessary.

They are easy to skip over, since there are many visual clues, e.g. horizontal lines and differently coloured backgrounds.

There are beneficial aspects to long quotes. Too often people don't quote, making it difficult to follow the sub-thread. Too often people snip too much, often in order to enable them to ignore the point being made so they can make their own strawman argument. Occasionally people attempt to, ahem, "revise history" by changing (or deleting) what they wrote after people have responded to it.

So overall quoting is a balance, with no single "right answer".

[tggzzz]

Just one week, ... blinked and folded.

Well... in a way I'm a little disappointed

Blinked, but not folded.

It is entertaining to see how his spokepersons practice gymnastics and spin violently when "explaining" it. His acolytes accept the spin, and feel relieved for the "explanation". Everybody else screams.

It will be interesting to see how he "declares victory" in 90 days, despite nothing having changed.

Meanwhile it is sad that billboards like this are appearing...

[Analog Kid]

Izzat Popeye's as in Popeye's Chicken?
If so, I knew they are a 'Murican fast-food chain, but had no idea they were in the UK.

[tggzzz]

Izzat Popeye's as in Popeye's Chicken?
If so, I knew they are a 'Murican fast-food chain, but had no idea they were in the UK.

Yes. Just appeared, but will they last?

There is considerable resentment against President Chamberlain, some is spilling over onto other US institutions. I expect Putin et al will attempt to ensure such feelings don't dissipate.

Currently such resentment isn't attached to individuals; pity/embarassment is more the order of the day, but that could change. Nonetheless it would be imprudent for anyone to wear MAGA clothing.

[tom66]

A lot of US chains have started popping up over the UK.  I expect there will be a bit of a pushback against them because they are so strongly associated with the US.  Popeye's promotes itself as Louisiana Chicken for instance.

There is one up the road from us, we tried it once.  6/10 meh.  Probably won't go again.

Tourism to the US has also cratered, by up to 30% from some European countries. Will be interesting to see how this affects the economy.

[MT]

Chris Nordlund goes shrink and analyzes a MAGA Hopium die hard imbecile whos on the cliff edge loosing his bissniss due to zio Dons tariffs, yet still no buyers regret.

[Zero999]

Um, that part of the conversation was about tariffs and bond markets, not covid.

Then why are you talking about it?

[dietert1]

Sometimes i think large parts of the US population have been brain washed into believing that politics and political parties exist for their entertainment. For many the dirty tricks of some politician appear amazing and they love to elect a convicted criminal for president. They are proud they did that. Like cheating in the tax declaration.
I'd guess this all happens when mainstream media are private property of rich persons and their ad contractors. All those people aren't interested in society and its future. For those people thinking about society and its future is socialism (= prone to fail).

Regards, Dieter

[SiliconWizard]

What's the point of this thread? I think Dave was perfectly aware it was a political timebomb and still created it in the hope of eliciting interesting discussions about the possible consequences for EEs and electronics businesses in general, and hopefully ways to deal with the foreseeable issues, which I think was the whole point. Otherwise it's just an endless thread of whining about how the world must absolutely get rid of Trump one way or another and so probably has no place in a EE forum whatsoever. Just my 2 cents, never mind me and please keep going.

[MK14]

What's the point of this thread? I think Dave was perfectly aware it was a political timebomb and still created it in the hope of eliciting interesting discussions about the possible consequences for EEs and electronics businesses in general, and hopefully ways to deal with the foreseeable issues, which I think was the whole point. Otherwise it's just an endless thread of whining about how the world must absolutely get rid of Trump one way or another and so probably has no place in a EE forum whatsoever. Just my 2 cents, never mind me and please keep going.

At some level, you are right.

But on the other hand, the global supply lines, especially as regards electronics, and people involved with the US, because they live there and/or do significant business with/within the US.  Will be especially affected.

If the US, does indeed have heavy and significant too big, tariffs, mainly for China.  That would have quite an impact on the electronics industry.

But on the other hand, I do agree, it is beginning (or already has) to descend into a political debate, rather than about tariffs and the electronics industry.

Edit: Typo

[tggzzz]

Um, that part of the conversation was about tariffs and bond markets, not covid.

Then why are you talking about it?

If you include the relevant context (cf snipping it to make a strawman argument), it is much clearer.

[rteodor]

What's the point of this thread? I think Dave was perfectly aware it was a political timebomb and still created it in the hope of eliciting interesting discussions about the possible consequences for EEs and electronics businesses in general, and hopefully ways to deal with the foreseeable issues, which I think was the whole point. Otherwise it's just an endless thread of whining about how the world must absolutely get rid of Trump one way or another and so probably has no place in a EE forum whatsoever. Just my 2 cents, never mind me and please keep going.

It's not only that. People are trying to find sense in this whole crazyness. Its underlying philosophy seems to be "the accelerationism" and it is tech related. Claims that "capitalism is the same thing as AI" seem to be depicted from an SF movie yet this is how some important people in power seem to think. No wonder its impossible to communicate with them. They have this idea of AI monarchy (at the ideological level) and that world is going in that direction so why try to stop it ? Better destroy "the Cathedral" pillars: education, legacy free press, democracy, etc and embrace and hasten the coming of AI. Nation states should disappear and be replaced by "The Networked State" that would be ruled as a company by efficiency and profit. And people would be shareholders.

I got the whole of the above from a substack article that should be put via a translator but I don't know how. Claims of the above are sustained with books, articles, citations and facts by a serious journalist. For others it might be old news/ideas but for me its puzzling ... even if it makes sense. I will stay in the negation phase for now. In Europe we've seen this movie and we know how it ends.

If I'm too off-topic I will happily delete my post. I never wrote so many aberrations in my whole life.