Tariffs

[tggzzz]

Can we stop the talk about the fentanyl please, this isn't the forum for this even if it's tariff related.

Yeah; that's the horns of the dilemma.

This thread has been off the rails for a long time, becoming noticeably worse in the past month.

The best interpretation is that it keeps it in one place. Compare and contrast with the alt.* usenet hierarchy.

[Cyclotron]

Can we stop the talk about the fentanyl please, this isn't the forum for this even if it's tariff related.

Apologies Dave.
I shouldn't be surprised that it triggered folks. I have "hope" and if good can happen, I hope it does.
I was asked why I care. 

My first, and primary point was the loss of de minimis that impacts me a lot.

Speaking of which.....

What are you seeing in your sales to the US? I assume this has had some impact to your business.
Is it easier to sell into Canada?  I travel there pretty often and might order some gear delivered to a friend there.

[Marco]

An interesting gambit by Trump recently, trying to turn proper sactions (ie. secondary sanctions, the only ones which work) for the war into tariffs and trying to get the EU to take the lead.

If the EU does finally properly sanction Russia, the disruption to trade could get far worse yet.

[themadhippy]

can someone explain in simple terms why if the tarriffs are bringing  so much money in that the us debt limit needs raising by $5trillion

[tszaboo]

can someone explain in simple terms why if the tarriffs are bringing  so much money in that the us debt limit needs raising by $5trillion

Because the 2025 budget was decided in 2024, under Joe Biden, who printed more money than any president before.
2026 the proposal has apparently a 23% reduction to the budget.

.............
Taxes are taxes.
The windfall, if it remains (working its way through the courts) has at least reduced the US deficit.

This is very revealing although only to 2018.....

Nice to see the NL just deleting it's deficit in a few years.
Time to reduce my taxes! 

[jonovid]

tariffs & sactions are not going to help the global westan neighbourhood. the US may even lose friends over this.
the coalition of the willing may find itself overshadowed by united growing resistance. a trade war over time will realine or redefine
international friendships beyond the current US administration.  if influence is a two way street. the US may even  find its self out in the cold.
if others abandoned the US dollar for something new.

[Marco]

the US may even lose friends over this.

China isn't any better partner, at least for EU ... instead of letting the Yuan rise they just switched to Euro assets to suppress it and the voices shouting down the people who dare say so are becoming less and less.

[tggzzz]

the US may even lose friends over this.

China isn't any better partner, at least for EU ... instead of letting the Yuan rise they just switched to Euro assets to suppress it and the voices shouting down the people who dare say so are becoming less and less.

The Xi-Putin-Kim axis isn't targeting the West like that. They are after South America, Africa, Pacifica, "no tariffs from your friends like us" (especially when we take your raw materials) .

[EEVblog]

My first, and primary point was the loss of de minimis that impacts me a lot.
Speaking of which.....
What are you seeing in your sales to the US? I assume this has had some impact to your business.
Is it easier to sell into Canada?  I travel there pretty often and might order some gear delivered to a friend there.

No big impact on my store sales yet, apart from Sendle have stopped sending there, but customers are still using the DHL Express option. But I have yet the hear from any customer who has actually paid the 10% tariff that has been put on Australia.
I should actually do a detailed check of my DHL invoices to see if I'm being charged for it...

[tggzzz]

My first, and primary point was the loss of de minimis that impacts me a lot.
Speaking of which.....
What are you seeing in your sales to the US? I assume this has had some impact to your business.
Is it easier to sell into Canada?  I travel there pretty often and might order some gear delivered to a friend there.

No big impact on my store sales yet, apart from Sendle have stopped sending there, but customers are still using the DHL Express option. But I have yet the hear from any customer who has actually paid the 10% tariff that has been put on Australia.
I should actually do a detailed check of my DHL invoices to see if I'm being charged for it...

Is there a time limit for any charges to be imposed?

I realise the practicalities of getting people to stump up the monies later, but that doesn't seem to deter governments and their bureaucracies

[Cyclotron]

My first, and primary point was the loss of de minimis that impacts me a lot.
Speaking of which.....
What are you seeing in your sales to the US? I assume this has had some impact to your business.
Is it easier to sell into Canada?  I travel there pretty often and might order some gear delivered to a friend there.

No big impact on my store sales yet, apart from Sendle have stopped sending there, but customers are still using the DHL Express option. But I have yet the hear from any customer who has actually paid the 10% tariff that has been put on Australia.
I should actually do a detailed check of my DHL invoices to see if I'm being charged for it...

Good, good, I'm happy to hear that. I just placed my order for the 121GW. I've been meaning to get one to add to my collection of hand-held meters. Now if you'd just build a bench meter. Maybe call it the 242GW and make it with a stainless case?

[EEVblog]

My first, and primary point was the loss of de minimis that impacts me a lot.
Speaking of which.....
What are you seeing in your sales to the US? I assume this has had some impact to your business.
Is it easier to sell into Canada?  I travel there pretty often and might order some gear delivered to a friend there.

No big impact on my store sales yet, apart from Sendle have stopped sending there, but customers are still using the DHL Express option. But I have yet the hear from any customer who has actually paid the 10% tariff that has been put on Australia.
I should actually do a detailed check of my DHL invoices to see if I'm being charged for it...

Is there a time limit for any charges to be imposed?

The Tariff on Australia went into effect several weeks ago now. Sendle stopped sending to the US completely, and Australia Post also stopped US shipment for like 5 days or something but have resumed again.
I just checked my latest DHL invoice and I'm definitely not being charged the tariff. But still haven't heard from any customer that there has been delays or demands for payment. They are all automatically marked as goods at the full vaue, not gifts.

[Cyclotron]

My first, and primary point was the loss of de minimis that impacts me a lot.
Speaking of which.....
What are you seeing in your sales to the US? I assume this has had some impact to your business.
Is it easier to sell into Canada?  I travel there pretty often and might order some gear delivered to a friend there.

No big impact on my store sales yet, apart from Sendle have stopped sending there, but customers are still using the DHL Express option. But I have yet the hear from any customer who has actually paid the 10% tariff that has been put on Australia.
I should actually do a detailed check of my DHL invoices to see if I'm being charged for it...

Is there a time limit for any charges to be imposed?

The Tariff on Australia went into effect several weeks ago now. Sendle stopped sending to the US completely, and Australia Post also stopped US shipment for like 5 days or something but have resumed again.
I just checked my latest DHL invoice and I'm definitely not being charged the tariff. But still haven't heard from any customer that there has been delays or demands for payment. They are all automatically marked as goods at the full vaue, not gifts.

I don't expect any problems either way, either it arrives no issue or DHL sends me notice of the duties required.
I'll let ya know.

[wilfred]

Because the 2025 budget was decided in 2024, under Joe Biden, who printed more money than any president before.
2026 the proposal has apparently a 23% reduction to the budget.

Not quite. From the White House website. "The Budget, which reduces non-defense discretionary by $163 billion or 23 percent from the 2025 enacted level, guts a weaponized deep state while providing historic increases for defense and border security.  The Budget also provides support for air and rail safety as well as key infrastructure and our Nation’s veterans and law enforcement."

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/05/the-white-house-office-of-management-and-budget-releases-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2026-skinny-budget/

Non defense discretionary is about half the total discretionary. Is that 23% calculated before or after budgeted increases to defense and border protection increases?

And furthermore the US federal budget is over 6 trillion dollars so as far as reducing the total debt US$163 billion doesn't really go very far.

To get a grip on the total debt there really needs to be broader cuts to spending or tax increases like the tariffs. Or both.

[Sorama]

My first, and primary point was the loss of de minimis that impacts me a lot.
Speaking of which.....
What are you seeing in your sales to the US? I assume this has had some impact to your business.
Is it easier to sell into Canada?  I travel there pretty often and might order some gear delivered to a friend there.

No big impact on my store sales yet, apart from Sendle have stopped sending there, but customers are still using the DHL Express option. But I have yet the hear from any customer who has actually paid the 10% tariff that has been put on Australia.
I should actually do a detailed check of my DHL invoices to see if I'm being charged for it...

Is there a time limit for any charges to be imposed?

I realise the practicalities of getting people to stump up the monies later, but that doesn't seem to deter governments and their bureaucracies

Indeed.
I wouldn’t be surprised when tariffs will be invoiced later on.
So don’t go partying yet.

[RJSV]

   (Maybe I'm responding to April posts, here).
   Personally,  I've got household priority projects, like wood framed structure building,  small stuff like that, and it's the Biden years creating this horrible inflation,  by way of printing cash out of thin air !
Any tarrif hassles are theoretical things, to read about.
   This thread must, necessarily, include the Biden trashing as well as (fake) Trump evil deeds.

   Anyone observant has to see the dementia (we endured),  plus the endless 'cackle' issuing vice-pres.   That'd be preferred, according to who ?  A minority in the vote count.  (But, alas,  the derangers continue in delusion reserved for Musk also...whatever made up crap to spew in a blog thread.)

[Cyclotron]

There have been concerns published about the lack of details on trade agreements, and it remains to be seen when it will all be sorted.
If SCOTUS rules in favor of the administration, I hope the pressure heightens to settle things. The administration has said it has a "plan B" in case SCOTUS finds against it. I fear things will be worse in a more protracted timeframe.

I mention the lack of details as I'm running an experiment. I have been too long without a 121GW meter, and purchasing one will let me experience, at least in the scope of Australia/US, what the "new normal" might look like.

There's no good clarity on what might be exempt in the agreements.  The administration did exempt a large number of electronics and parts.
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/trump-electronics-tariff-exemption-list/745209/

The definition of some of this is missing, and the exemption was said to be "temporary," but would appear to be effective currently.
I've dug through the available material to determine if the DMM would be exempt, but it remains unclear. I fed the information to AI, and I got conflicting answers from it as well.

[Marco]

The Xi-Putin-Kim axis isn't targeting the West like that.

You can not maintain massive trade imbalances on the decade scale without stockpiling foreign denominated assets.

China eased off the USD, they went all in on the Euro. It doesn't matter how much better at manufacturing they supposedly are, ultimately we have to give them something in return ... and for now it's a whole lot of paper and offshoring of industry. Neo-mercantilism, it works ... and even the liars in Davos are becoming unable to hide that truth.

[tggzzz]

The Xi-Putin-Kim axis isn't targeting the West like that.

You can not maintain massive trade imbalances on the decade scale without stockpiling foreign denominated assets.

China eased off the USD, they went all in on the Euro. It doesn't matter how much better at manufacturing they supposedly are, ultimately we have to give them something in return ... and for now it's a whole lot of paper and offshoring of industry. Neo-mercantilism, it works ... and even the liars in Davos are becoming unable to hide that truth.

While there is truth there, that is too simplistic: there can be other forces.

The essence of trade is to take something worth X here and sell it for Y1>X in over there, and simultaneously to take something worth X there and sell it for Y2>X  here. Both sides gain, whether or not Y1=Y2.

Trade is not a zero sum game, even though T'rump infamously cannot understand that. Too many sociopaths believe that if I gain then you must lose, and mutate that into in order for me to win, it is necessary that you lose.

In many parts of the world people just want to get their money out of their own currency and into another currency, partly as a simple value hedge and partly if the are ejected from their own country.

I remember hearing about the first happening in Israel when I was young. Everybody got their wages and immediately converted it into dollars. The second has been very visible more recently with the Russian kleptocrats buying up many things outside Russia.The

No doubt there are other reasons.

[Cyclotron]

My first, and primary point was the loss of de minimis that impacts me a lot.
Speaking of which.....
What are you seeing in your sales to the US? I assume this has had some impact to your business.
Is it easier to sell into Canada?  I travel there pretty often and might order some gear delivered to a friend there.

No big impact on my store sales yet, apart from Sendle have stopped sending there, but customers are still using the DHL Express option. But I have yet the hear from any customer who has actually paid the 10% tariff that has been put on Australia.
I should actually do a detailed check of my DHL invoices to see if I'm being charged for it...

Is there a time limit for any charges to be imposed?

The Tariff on Australia went into effect several weeks ago now. Sendle stopped sending to the US completely, and Australia Post also stopped US shipment for like 5 days or something but have resumed again.
I just checked my latest DHL invoice and I'm definitely not being charged the tariff. But still haven't heard from any customer that there has been delays or demands for payment. They are all automatically marked as goods at the full vaue, not gifts.

I don't expect any problems either way, either it arrives no issue or DHL sends me notice of the duties required.
I'll let ya know.

@EEVBLOG

DHL sent me an email telling me there's duties due on my shipment. It was a single button to click, see the charges, and simple to pay either by credit card or paypal. Attached is an image of the invoice for the duties.

IMPORT EXPORT DUTIES     $17.39
REGULATORY CHARGES.       $1.31
DUTY TAX PROCESSING.     $17.00
Total charges.      $35.70

The IMPORT EXPORT DUTIES aligns with the 10% tariff for goods imported from AUS to US.
GST into Australia is 10% so similar charges would be levied going the other way I believe.

The big difference is the processing fees and this may see some competition over time and come down. That's pure speculation. It could just as easily go up.
Since there are no current legal challenges to setting the de minimis value to $0.00 I do not see this charge changing any time soon.

While the extra tax is painful to some extent, the process isn't painful at all with DHL
From shipping to arrival is 4 days per what I'm seeing in tracking.
C

[tggzzz]

The IMPORT EXPORT DUTIES aligns with the 10% tariff for goods imported from AUS to US.
GST into Australia is 10% so similar charges would be levied going the other way I believe.

The big difference is the processing fees and this may see some competition over time and come down. That's pure speculation. It could just as easily go up.

That process is the same in the UK.

What competition are you thinking of?

• as far as the supplier and the US government[1] are concerned, that is an externality. They have little reason to care.
• a purchaser could request a specific shipper, but suppliers probably want to deal with only one shipper.
  
• shippers will only have an incentive to reduce the fee if they are losing business to other shippers because of the fee. That seems unlikely.
  

[1] arguably the US government will be in favour of the fee, since they think it is an extra incentive to onshore manufacturing.

[Sorama]

 

[Cyclotron]

As a corollary to Dave's experience that the tariffs haven't impacted his business, there's news that the US consumer is remaining highly active.
US retail sales rise despite tariffs is all over the news today as I travel.

The US stock market is still exhibiting the September Effect. The regular pundits appear to also think there's restlessness on what the Fed may do on rates.

That leaves the jobs market. The updated reported data from 2024 through to March was surprising to me but I don't typically track that data. Nearly 1 million fewer jobs.  I haven't looked for any hisstoric context to evaluate that against, yet. Seems pretty bad.

There's a good bit of media indicating stagnation and negativity on jobs but other's say its in better shape than data suggests(paywalled for some).  On balance, given the time of year, I think its healthy but not growing at the rate that some would like, stagnant seems accurate but with negative connotations. Going into the holiday season will be interesting.

[PlainName]

The updated reported data from 2024 through to March was surprising to me

Why would it be surprising?

[Cyclotron]

The updated reported data from 2024 through to March was surprising to me

Why would it be surprising?

For me, 1 million is a large number given the total population of the US is around 330 million.  In that context it seems large and I'm surprised at that scale.

I was trying, but I guess, failing to elude to the reason for my surprise. I don't have context for the reporting of those numbers, how often it is wrong and is nearly a million wrong a really big deal as the some news portrays it.