When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[nctnico]

Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).

[CatalinaWOW]

Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).

A Microsoft answer.  100% correct, and totally useless.

[nctnico]

Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).

A Microsoft answer.  100% correct, and totally useless.

To you (and -hopefully- most people who paid attention in physics class) but Doug seems to imply the energy goes somewhere else as well.

[f4eru]

Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).

Yes, that's nearly 100% true.
But a gas car needs to convert 8x more energy to heat to be able to travel the same distance as a BEV.

[nctnico]

Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).

Yes, that's nearly 100% true.
But a gas car needs to convert 8x more energy to heat to be able to travel the same distance as a BEV.

That depends entirely on where the electricity is coming from and I already showed the math many times that it is unlikely an EV being powered of the grid needs less energy compared to an efficient ICE. 8x is stupidly wrong in any case BTW. I can't see why you keep telling these kind of fairy tales. Also nobody cares about efficiency anyway. TCO is what counts and that is where EVs completely suck in the long term (when free charging goes away and the costs of upgrading the infrastructure become clear).

[george80]

But a gas car needs to convert 8x more energy to heat to be able to travel the same distance as a BEV.

Yeah, dunno what spin doctored green koolaide drinking site you got that from but without even looking it up that's clearly a load of crap.
While the ice is only about 30% efficient, the inefficiency in the battery charging and discharge alone would prevent EV's from being 800% more efficient which is what that 8x number indicates.  Don't even have to look that up to call bullshit.

Numbers can be cherry picked and spun to suit any agenda but clearly this figure is not a real world number and is taken from some particular set of parameters to sound as impressive as possible.  Unfortunately when something sounds too good to be true, it usually turns out to be a pile of steaming manure. Which this is.

I can't see why you keep telling these kind of fairy tales.

Well there is irony if there ever was.

TCO is what counts and that is where EVs completely suck in the long term (when free charging goes away and the costs of upgrading the infrastructure become clear).

Something else I read the other day was Tesla is no longer providing home chargers with the vehicles.
The cost of a charger in the US and having it wired in on a HD circuit is said to be 2 grand. I would imagine in the US thats a significant part of the fuel cost for an average vehicle for a year straight off.

If you are if the position you want to charge from home from your panels, Then you would need a minimum of $50K worth of panels to have a hope of realizing that dream in the US and $100K to make sure you could do it all year round.

A person would have to be confident they could make significant real world savings with an EV before purchisning one over the next few years because with the amount of new models about to come out the wood work from every established manufacturer and a stack of startups,  The EV you buy today will be worth NOTHING in 3-5 years time much like solar panels here.
That 1.5 KW set you bought 7 years ago many have cost you 8-10 K but a new 6.6 setup is now $4K so you are wasting you time asking for $500 for the old set.

Going to be a real crapshoot with EV's and their battery life on the used market.  Will it have a few years left on the battery or will it have a few months before the thing falls over and the car is virtually worthless. I can see loads of people whom only want to use the things short distances ripping out the OEM batteries and filling the boot with conventional Deep cycle batteries so the thng can be used just to run around.

Then again, with all the monitoring and sensors EV's are going to have as well as Big brother looking over your shoulder,  Probably going to be impossible and the only thing they will be good for is scrap.

[DougSpindler]

Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).

A Microsoft answer.  100% correct, and totally useless.

To you (and -hopefully- most people who paid attention in physics class) but Doug seems to imply the energy goes somewhere else as well.

There you go again making things up again.

[nctnico]

Something else I read the other day was Tesla is no longer providing home chargers with the vehicles.
The cost of a charger in the US and having it wired in on a HD circuit is said to be 2 grand. I would imagine in the US thats a significant part of the fuel cost for an average vehicle for a year straight off.

And not just that... there is a whole flurry of electric cars about to hit the market. Who guarantees me that (if I buy one) I can still charge it from a public charging spot 10 years from now? And how about 20 years from now? Will there even be a public charging infrastructure in 10 years or are the EVs which are still around only usefull to those who have a charging space at home and like to have a short distance roundabout? Yes, there is a lot of public charging infrastructure right now but it will need maintenance. If there is no money to be made, it is easy to foresee what will happen when maintenance is required. I already spotted some 'out of order' signs in public parking garages which seem to have been hanging there for a while.

Back in the 70's and 80's there where several competing video cassette standards. In the end VHS 'won' but that system wasn't the first to hit the market or have the best image quality. In 1975 Betamax had a 100% market share in the US but VHS turned out to be cheaper in the end. (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Videotape_format_war )

Any car you'll buy needs a supporting infrastructure if you want to use it for long distances.

[george80]

And not just that... there is a whole flurry of electric cars about to hit the market. Who guarantees me that (if I buy one) I can still charge it from a public charging spot 10 years from now? And how about 20 years from now?

My wife works for a local Council. They have recently taken up a mandate or what ever you call them to start installing EV charge points. ( don't know if free or paid) and council Vehicles are now going to be at least in part, Electric.
As she is in the running for a wage and advancement review, It may turn out that we have an EV in the driveway being her company car which would be a total hoot given my misgivings about the things. I would love the opportunity to have one though to really get an idea of the reality of living with one.

Given our distance from her work, it WOULD need to be charged during the day and in any event, unless they are going to pay her charging subsidy, I don't want it adding to our power Bill. An ICE would come with a fuel card so I don't want to be adding to my power bill.
In reality, given the amount of solar I have and the ability to add plenty more, could make us money so that could be a bonus.

Will there even be a public charging infrastructure in 10 years or are the EVs which are still around only usefull to those who have a charging space at home and like to have a short distance roundabout? It will all depend on demand and popularity.
My prediction is like most technology's, there will certainly be an early bun rush particularly due to the over hyping and green washing.  Wether they live up to peoples expectations and they take to them after there are enough out there that everyone knows someone that has one, will remain to be seen.  There ill be a myriad of problems with the things due to nothing more than human nature and resistance to change to be fair but then the real dislikes and limitations will show up and it will depend on how people take those.

It'd be pretty certain though that if the things do not turn out to be cheaper to run, they will not be looked on favorably.
There is also the thing of cultural preferences. I predict EV's will do far better in some places than others.  Power pricing, range and load carrying will be big factors.  F-150s if they have these things which will probably have to be the equal if the IC's at least in carrying and towing should be OK if all rural US is now electrified.

Any car you'll buy needs a supporting infrastructure if you want to use it for long distances.

And this is a big sticking point I see as a problem.  Charging up hundreds/ thousands of cars at holiday time is going to be a big hurdle.
As our main holidays are in summer time when power is already short, loads of cars all wanting to charge up at once is going to require massive additional power.  We are expecting blackouts due to power shortages over the next few summers at least and the worry is there is no planning for an increase in infrastructure to address this.  These things take a Minimum of 5 years from planing to first siod being turned so maybe 10 years before anything is in place.

I have been  putting in generators and more solar panels but I think I'll start stockpiling them while the things can be had at a reasonable price.
Could be a real good investment for the future to have them in reserve and sell them off as well.

[EEVblog]

NOTE: I cleaned up this thread to remove the off-topic posts. Please try to stick to the topic.

[Simon]

electric apparently uses around 250Wh per mile, the drive train is around 90% efficient. Internal combustion engines as the name suggests make more heat and are more wasteful at 30-40% efficiency. After that you can argue about your tyres or whatever but the differences between an electric drive train and ICE es massive.

[boffin]

Looking at the article I linked to above, the true fallacy of EV's being cheaper to run comes out:

From this week, the pioneering electric car-maker from California will increase the average price of charging at any of its Australian and New Zealand supercharger stations from $0.35 per kWh to $0.42 per kWh, or 20 per cent.

In reality, the price hikes mean it will cost an additional $5.25 to fully replenish a Tesla Model S with a 75kWh battery (claimed 490km range), or $31.50.
....blahblahblah

To sum up.

• You take the dodgy calculations of a journalist (not Tesla) to calculate energy consumption of an EV resulting in 32kWh/100km, whereas in reality the quoted and actual real-world consumption is much closer to 20kWh/100km.
• Then use the electricity billing rate of a convenience network, from a company that is actively looking for more income sources, at 0.42/hr, vs the average home cost of 0.30/kWh, while quoting the lowest cost gasoline source you can find

to try to convince us that at an ICE vehicle getting 7l/100km (7@1.30/l = $9.10) is somehow more efficient than an electric (20@0.30= $6.00)

Your misrepresentation of reality is right up there with most politicians.

[Simon]

If my car was electric and I charged at home on the nightly rate it would cost £0.03/m, I am currently paying £0.15/m in petrol, fact and end of!

[fourtytwo42]

If my car was electric and I charged at home on the nightly rate it would cost £0.03/m, I am currently paying £0.15/m in petrol, fact and end of!

Using my rates (20p/Kwh) the charge would be £0.10/m vs my diesel at £0.12/m however the capital amortization makes an electric unthinkable for me in addition to the range restriction making it impracticable as an only car.....fact and end of

[DougSpindler]

electric apparently uses around 250Wh per mile, the drive train is around 90% efficient. Internal combustion engines as the name suggests make more heat and are more wasteful at 30-40% efficiency. After that you can argue about your tyres or whatever but the differences between an electric drive train and ICE es massive.

Where do you come up with the drive train 90% efficient.  Rolling resistance of 25% efficient.  Doesn’t matter if it is ICE, EV, Hydrogen or diesel. 

Rolling resistance discussed at 9:51
https://youtu.be/88KuNmjL_LE

https://youtu.be/c170ZimUybQ

[Simon]

Maybe drive train is the wrong word. OK the motor/engine. Off the bat ICI turns 60+% of what you put in into heat. So the which one is most efficient is easy to answer unless your tring to make stuff up!

[nctnico]

electric apparently uses around 250Wh per mile, the drive train is around 90% efficient. Internal combustion engines as the name suggests make more heat and are more wasteful at 30-40% efficiency. After that you can argue about your tyres or whatever but the differences between an electric drive train and ICE es massive.

If you'd read the rest of the thread you'd know efficiency isn't important at all. Costs are. But if you insist on comparing efficiencies you must factor in the source of the electricity. And then things turn really ugly.

Also your electicity price seems way to low. I think you forgot to add taxes and distribution costs. According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:


From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/
If you do the math with these prices you'll see an EV is on par with the average ICE car when it comes to cost per km IF you charge at home. An efficient ICE will be cheaper to run! If you have to rely on public charging infrastructure then the price per km for the EV will at least double.

In the end it is all about costs.

[Simon]

Overnight we can pay 8-9p/KWh. yes the cost of the fuel is important.

[nctnico]

Overnight we can pay 8-9p/KWh. yes the cost of the fuel is important.

But that is likely without taxes and distribution costs. These usually are hidden in the fine print. All in all the difference is too small to make an EV cheaper to run compared to an efficient ICE based car.

I see now I posted a graph without the distribution costs included. Hold on a minute.

[Simon]

Overnight we can pay 8-9p/KWh. yes the cost of the fuel is important.

But that is likely without taxes and distribution costs. These usually are hidden in the fine print. All in all the difference is minimal.

Are you being stupid or what? I am telling YOEU that I in the UK will pay 8-9p/KWh overnight - ALL IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! just go on a UK supplier website and check, then call me a liar. This is for Economy 7 where you will pay more by day. On a regular tariff you pay 12p/KWh. Now are you going to continue to call me a liar or accept the FACT?

[nctnico]

Just check your bill. I'm paying around 23 eurocents (17p) per kWh (which is about average for the NL) and all lists I can find show electricity is more expensive in the UK. Something isn't right.

[DougSpindler]

electric apparently uses around 250Wh per mile, the drive train is around 90% efficient. Internal combustion engines as the name suggests make more heat and are more wasteful at 30-40% efficiency. After that you can argue about your tyres or whatever but the differences between an electric drive train and ICE es massive.

If you'd read the rest of the thread you'd know efficiency isn't important at all. Costs are. But if you insist on comparing efficiencies you must factor in the source of the electricity. And then things turn really ugly.

Also your electicity price seems way to low. I think you forgot to add taxes and distribution costs. According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:


From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/
If you do the math with these prices you'll see an EV is on par with the average ICE car when it comes to cost per km IF you charge at home. An efficient ICE will be cheaper to run! If you have to rely on public charging infrastructure then the price per km for the EV will at least double.

In the end it is all about costs.

There you go again posting misleading information.  What you have posted i the average price not th actual price.  In the US there can be a 260% difference between the actual price someone typically pays to charge a car and the average price.  In the US where I live average cost per kWhr is $0.31.  it. Can’t buy electricity at the average price.  I have to pay either $0.12 or $0.50 kWhr.

I suspect it is the same for my European relatives.  And I suspect my European relatives are not as daft
As you are and would pay a much lower rate when charging their EV.

[nctnico]

You can't compare US prices to European prices because the population density, infrastructure costs and taxes are way different.

I just checked for myself. The cheapest I can get is 0.214 eurocent/kWh and the most expensive one costs 0.247/0.227 (night) eurocents per kWh.

[Simon]

Just check your bill. I'm paying around 23 eurocents (17p) per kWh (which is about average for the NL) and all lists I can find show electricity is more expensive in the UK. Something isn't right.

I pay 18p/KWh because I use a more expensive supplier (my choice), i know what i pay. You are just peddaling BS to make a non argument. Infact i pay way less than that because I generate my own anyway and once the cost went over 12p/KWh the battery systems become viable. Daily connection charges which you will pay anyway because your house needs power anyway are under 20p/day.

[nctnico]

Just check your bill. I'm paying around 23 eurocents (17p) per kWh (which is about average for the NL) and all lists I can find show electricity is more expensive in the UK. Something isn't right.

I pay 18p/KWh because I use a more expensive supplier (my choice), i know what i pay. You are just peddaling BS to make a non argument. Infact i pay way less than that because I generate my own anyway and once the cost went over 12p/KWh the battery systems become viable. Daily connection charges which you will pay anyway because your house needs power anyway are under 20p/day.

So you are not paying 8p per kWh then and get electricity for free out of thin air? Who is peddaling BS here?

Show use how your battery system can be cost effective at that price point. I ran some numbers on Tesla's powerwall and came to the conclusion that it costs around 30 eurocents to store 1kWh in it.