Tariffs

[TimFox]

How Wars Start

I have a different view, that my dear EEVblog coleague, wraps over yours: it is my opinion that some kids must be beaten when they are small because once they grow up they have this attitude towards world: they would just not accept or even know that there are some really bad consequences to some actions. This kids strongly believe they know everything and just don't want to hear that the world spun around many times before them. This is how the wars start. And they end when these and other kids either grow up or die.

A slight correction to clarify your first sentence:  “some kids must have been beaten”.  “Must be beaten” recommends beating them.

[tom66]

Just for Fun...   

Because of Tariffs (unprovoked economic warfare) the inhabitants of Heard and McDonald Islands (not Australia) have retaliated and declared Total War on U S A

Hilarious.  Now this is a good use of AI and, I would say, it counts as 'art'.  Even if it is a little glitchy in places, it's amazing how the technology has improved over the last 2-3 years.

On topic, it's interesting that the administration hasn't backed down on tariffing Heard and McDonald Islands -- they're still tariffed at 10% -- even though it makes no sense at all.

[tggzzz]

Just for Fun...   

Because of Tariffs (unprovoked economic warfare) the inhabitants of Heard and McDonald Islands (not Australia) have retaliated and declared Total War on U S A

Hilarious.  Now this is a good use of AI and, I would say, it counts as 'art'.  Even if it is a little glitchy in places, it's amazing how the technology has improved over the last 2-3 years.

On topic, it's interesting that the administration hasn't backed down on tariffing Heard and McDonald Islands -- they're still tariffed at 10% -- even though it makes no sense at all.

Backing down implies a mistake, and in this case the mistake would be revealing and highly embarrassing. "Now tell me Mr T'rump, you have declared victory and mission achieved, but what were those for the Heard Islands?"

Backing down implies loss of face, and that simply won't do for the world's bigliest and bestest businessman.

He will have to find a way to be able to declare "mission achieved"; I wonder what that will be. Or will it end up as "the war tariff situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's America's advantage"

[Gyro]

This is way too far into politics, but may I introduce you to the British Empire? Thanks, half the world is ours and we'll take it back now. I'm sure you'll love that.

historically, england would be ours then by proxy your empire is our empire

Bloody Romans and their bloody roads..

It's about time they came back and did some maintenance on them! 

[Simon]

Perhaps we could get back to tariffs and leave the war stuff alone before the thread has to be locked.

[MK14]

Here is a very recent video, around 3.5 minutes long, which seems to in plain simple language, explain how these tariffs.  Are not going to bring back manufacturing jobs, to the US.

[wilfred]

trump has further backpedaled on 145% China tariffs saying "they're not going to be anywhere near that high, it'll come down substantially, but they won't be zero."

In the absence of any substantive trade deal during this 90 day pause you can expect it to be abandoned even if Canada and Mexico which had a free trade deal signed by trump still have tariffs higher than countries that don't have a free trade deal.

[MT]

101 on how to loose 2,5 billion USD in beef trade:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-beef-off-menu-trade-war-hits-beijings-american-style-restaurants-2025-04-21/

[vad]

Here is a very recent video, around 3.5 minutes long, which seems to in plain simple language, explain how these tariffs.  Are not going to bring back manufacturing jobs, to the US.

Same from Cris Kohler, 5 times shorter, in layman’s terms, and with an Aussie accent:

https://youtube.com/shorts/pCusIZTjk_k

[Zero999]

...Reading your comment, in full.  I get the impression, you have similar feelings, about the current US administration, such as some of what they are trying to do (just as you said), is potentially a good idea.  But things are just very poorly managed and implemented, which can easily turn good ideas, into a mismanaged mini-disaster.

Read the public statements of people he chose to work with him in his previous administration. A horrifying proportion make very damning comments on his ability and suitability to be president.

Don't forget that Trump has declared bankruptcy 6 (six) times. That's not the hallmark of a good businessman. Once might be unfortunate, two careless, but six are...

I've seen (but not personally checked) credible calculations to the effect that if Trump had merely invested his enormous inheritance in the stock market, then he would be richer than he is today. That implies his business empire has generated negative personal wealth! Now he is doing that in a wider context.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.  He has, apparently, had a bee in his bonnet about tariffs for decades, and has now enacted his dreams. Note previous paragraph.

Prediction: tariffs will cause inflation inside the US, and Trump will blame the Fed for not lowering interest rates.

Objectively speaking, Biden wasn't any more suitable to be president, but that didn't matter because others were pulling the strings. Unfortunately, Harries appeared to be equally ineffectual, going by her word salads, but again, she would have been controlled by others, maintaining the status quo.

The problem is, many of Trumps other policies are very popular are some are objectively more sane than the Democrats'. Hopefully the opposition will take note and come to the centre ground, in the next few years.

That's an irrelevant and unimportant straw man argument.

Trump's policies are, at the moment, still popular amongst people who haven't (yet) suffered much and are happy that people they hate are being hurt. Pastor Niemoller wrote a famous poem that is relevant https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_They_Came

You clearly have no idea of the craziness of a good proportion of the opposition. I can think of one of their policies which make Trump's tariffs look sane. I won't go into detail, because it's off topic, but I'll drop a few hints: human biology, the recent UK high court ruling and Title 9.

There are examples of craziness in this forum. I would feel uncomfortable about pointing fingers.

But no one here, as far as I'm aware, wants to run the US. My point is that both sides have extremists in high places.

Most people just chose what they saw as the least worst option. Many are concerned about being made poorer due to the tariffs, a minority agree with the extremists in opposition, whilst others would rather pay the price, to prevent the other extreme.

Note I don't want to discuss other side's crazy policies here, since they're off-topic, just bear in mind they don't get the same coverage by our mainstream media, as Trump, because they aren't in power and they don't have the same impact on the rest of the world.

[richnormand]

Detailed interviews about the effect of tariff on small, medium size companies in the US that deal with several of consumer products in the PC realm.
Uncertainty is what is killing most of them.

[MK14]

Detailed interviews about the effect of tariff on small, medium size companies in the US that deal with several of consumer products in the PC realm.
Uncertainty is what is killing most of them.

It looks like a very nice and interesting video.  But unfortunately, it is nearly 3 hours long, so difficult to watch in its entirety.

I've watched some brief bits and pieces.  One such (partial) section.  Which seems to stand out and may interest others here (just watching a few minutes of it, is ok).
Is what Louis Rossmann says about it.  Which seems to be pretty good, and well on the topic of tariffs.

The timestamp to get almost bang on to the start of it, is here:
https://youtu.be/1W_mSOS1Qts?t=5099

[tom66]

You would think that the president, being a former businessman himself, and having had at least some success in business (for reasons that are off-topic I don't believe these are indicative of his business acumen) would at least have some appreciation that investors really like to be able to make 2, 3, and 5 year projections.  If the tariffs change every day according to his whims, no one can plan anything.  There is one thing about saying we are going to e.g. tariff China at 50% and expect to have a resolution in the next 6 months and if they do not come to the negotiating table that will persist for some time.  Businesses can plan for that.  It is a whole 'nother problem to say we will tariff China 34%, actually I mean 54%, no wait now it's 125%, oh I mean 145% but semiconductors and phones are exempt, oh, maybe not, I'm not sure...  That just results in investors dithering and unable to decide on the best path, weakening overall investment.

[tggzzz]

You would think that the president, being a former businessman himself, and having had at least some success in business (for reasons that are off-topic I don't believe these are indicative of his business acumen) would at least have some appreciation that investors really like to be able to make 2, 3, and 5 year projections.  If the tariffs change every day according to his whims, no one can plan anything.  There is one thing about saying we are going to e.g. tariff China at 50% and expect to have a resolution in the next 6 months and if they do not come to the negotiating table that will persist for some time.  Businesses can plan for that.  It is a whole 'nother problem to say we will tariff China 34%, actually I mean 54%, no wait now it's 125%, oh I mean 145% but semiconductors and phones are exempt, oh, maybe not, I'm not sure...  That just results in investors dithering and unable to decide on the best path, weakening overall investment.

His success is a matter of debate and perspective. For example, he has declared bankruptcy 6 (six) times, which is (charitably) repeatedly careless. Consider the perspective of creditors to his failed ventures.

There is a school of thought that chaos brings progress, as famously expressed in The Third Man, "After all, it’s not that awful. You know what the fellow said – in Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace. And what did that produce? The cuckoo clock."

That school of thought is popular amongst libertarians and those that think Ayn Rand was profound. I was tempted by such concepts in my mid teens, but rapidly saw the consequences - and quickly grew out of it.

[tom66]

Well, my opinion is anyone who inherited what amounts to around $100 million from their father, who absolutely was a demonstrably successful businessman, would be doing incredibly badly to be worse off than that - especially when their investment was in real estate in New York City.  I'm sure he made some good moves, but I'm also sure if he started with a dollar in his pocket instead of $100 million he'd be running a used car dealership, not the president, all else being equal.

This does have relevance to tariffs, I promise!  I wonder if this is another case of rich people assuming they are rich because they are the "best people" (as in somehow superior to the rest of us folk).  This is seen all the time, I think Musk is one of the most prominent examples right now. Musk was also born into wealth which gave him a significant advantage in early life.  He has had some successes to say the least, but I wonder if it was mostly a case of being in the right place at the right time.  He now believes he is the best man in the world to run platforms like X, tunnel under Los Angeles (earthquakes be damned) and that the Cybertruck is a good product.  Is the president suffering a similar ill?  His tariffs are "right" - he has always believed in them, way back to his first campaign in the 80's he promoted the idea of tarriffing other nations, and under his first presidency he got into a trade war and that didn't totally destroy everything.  There's no evidence that the trade war benefited the US either, but "I've been right about so many other things in my real estate deals - this applies to being president too!" could be a factor here.

If that's the case, it may take a serious deviation from the norm, or intervention by Congress or the Supreme Court, to stop these in the end - if he listens to either.

[tggzzz]

Well, my opinion is anyone who inherited what amounts to around $100 million from their father, who absolutely was a demonstrably successful businessman, would be doing incredibly badly to be worse off than that - especially when their investment was in real estate in New York City.  I'm sure he made some good moves, but I'm also sure if he started with a dollar in his pocket instead of $100 million he'd be running a used car dealership, not the president, all else being equal.

Trump's finances and statements remind me of Robert Maxwell: opaque and dubious.

If there were errors, I'm sure Trump would have found a way to "correct" this wackypedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_of_Donald_Trump#1980s_and_1990s containing
"...Former Forbes reporter Jonathan Greenberg said in 2018 that during the 1980s Trump had deceived him about his actual net worth and his share of the family assets in order to appear on the list. According to Greenberg, ... it took decades to unwind the elaborate farce Trump had enacted to project an image as one of the richest people in America. Nearly every assertion supporting that claim was untrue. ... In our first-ever list, in 1982, we included him at $100 million, but Trump was actually worth roughly $5 million ..."
and
"After several years on the Forbes List, Trump's financial losses in the 1980s caused him to be dropped from 1990 to 1995, and reportedly obliged him to borrow from his siblings' trusts in 1993."

Oops. Not what you would expect from a good business men, e.g. Bill and Dave, or Gates, or ....

This does have relevance to tariffs, I promise!  I wonder if this is another case of rich people assuming they are rich because they are the "best people" (as in somehow superior to the rest of us folk).  This is seen all the time, I think Musk is one of the most prominent examples right now. Musk was also born into wealth which gave him a significant advantage in early life.  He has had some successes to say the least, but I wonder if it was mostly a case of being in the right place at the right time.  He now believes he is the best man in the world to run platforms like X, tunnel under Los Angeles (earthquakes be damned) and that the Cybertruck is a good product.  Is the president suffering a similar ill?  His tariffs are "right" - he has always believed in them, way back to his first campaign in the 80's he promoted the idea of tarriffing other nations, and under his first presidency he got into a trade war and that didn't totally destroy everything.  There's no evidence that the trade war benefited the US either, but "I've been right about so many other things in my real estate deals - this applies to being president too!" could be a factor here.

That applies in many walks of life, including fund managers (75% underperform the market, the others are just lucky), scientists (e.g. Linus Pauling and his DNA and Vitamin C theories).

If that's the case, it may take a serious deviation from the norm, or intervention by Congress or the Supreme Court, to stop these in the end - if he listens to either.

He has stuffed the supreme court with his appointees.

Given the power-grabs, overreach and assault it is currently under, it remains to be seen whether the much-vaunted US Constitution is worth the paper it is written on. Example power grab: congress is supposed to set foreign tariffs, but Trump claims the American's desire for fentanyl from China is a national emergency enabling him to set tariffs on Norfolk Island and Gabon.

[wilfred]

That school of thought is popular amongst libertarians and those that think Ayn Rand was profound. I was tempted by such concepts in my mid teens, but rapidly saw the consequences - and quickly grew out of it.

I read Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged just after I read Edwin A Abbott's Flatland. There's a month of my reading life I won't get back. But I was shocked to see her characters (if you can call them that) had one fewer dimensions than those in Flatland.

I see in the news today several CEO's of some big box stores met with the administration. Presumably to warn of the consequences of empty shelves. I expected to have heard more about this, even over here in Australia. Maybe a few more weeks before the shit hits the fan.

[tautech]

That school of thought is popular amongst libertarians and those that think Ayn Rand was profound. I was tempted by such concepts in my mid teens, but rapidly saw the consequences - and quickly grew out of it.

I read Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged just after I read Edwin A Abbott's Flatland. There's a month of my reading life I won't get back. But I was shocked to see her characters (if you can call them that) had one fewer dimensions than those in Flatland.

I see in the news today several CEO's of some big box stores met with the administration. Presumably to warn of the consequences of empty shelves. I expected to have heard more about this, even over here in Australia. Maybe a few more weeks before the shit hits the fan.

IMO the bull is slowly being backed out of the china shop. 

[Njk]

Usually you don't need to do calculations in Imperial units; they are just arbitrary numbers with convenient round numbers.

Otherwise, as I rapidly worked out as decimal currency was being introduced, base 10 is much easier than base3/6/8/12/24/240/etc.

As I've noted in The Other Place, I've recently laid my hands on an old mechanical calculator of the type we used at school. The manual provides an interesting insight into The Good Old Days [sic]. It is 95(!) pages long, of which basic +-*/ occupy about 10 pages, square root is only one page (there's a yooootoob vid of someone doing that; tedious in the extreme!), but the largest section is devoted to calculations in Imperial units and LSD.
https://teanonymous.com/f1/viewtopic.php?p=10267#p10267

Actually, two different things are associated with Imperial units. First, the choice of unit. Second, preference for vulgar fractions. Both were perfectly adequate back at the middle age. It's amazing the system is still in use. It's like fighting with the limitations and bugs of Win95 instead of switching to WinNT. But sometimes we have to. Just improved my espresso machine with a pressure gauge. Ordered a tiny 1/8" tube fittings from China. Great care was required because 1/8 BSP does not fit 1/8 NPT while the thread type is not always specified by seller.
Modern technology helps and with a CAD, you can select unit as you desire but notice how smart the old tech is. It works because of physic laws, not against them. Modern things are actually dumb because they can't work without control electronics, which not only consumes power all the way but is a product of huge industry so it's actually a tip of the iceberg. Mechanical calculators are engineering marvels. Also, look at a slide rule. My father once explained how to use it, and I found it a bit cumbersome. But in fact, slide rule is a very versatile computing tool, not for everyone, because of the learning curve. I've a book about it, printed in 1939. The scan of foreword is attached because now it reads very funny. It's in Russian, but you can use google image translation, it works. Basically, the foreword starts with the following statement:

Currently it's easy to find here an engineer who don't know how to use slide rule. Not mentioning the clerks and workers. But abroad, not only every engineer can master the slide rule, but many technicians and skilled workers are able to use it.

[Njk]

Keeping distances and speed in miles has nothing to do with pride - changing the units will kill people for absolutely no gain.

Perhaps. But if you switch, it will kill only some UK people and only during the transition period (one generation). If you don't switch, more people will be killed everywhere (because the Brits are roaming worldwide). AFAIK, in China airspace, the pilots are required to use the metric units communicating with the ATC. The same was in Russia back in USSR time. Now you can use your favorite feet and knots as long as you're flying high enough. But Chinese insists on using the metric units at all altitudes. I'm not sure it'll be a good idea to convince them to make a great leap backward. After all, there are more population than in whole West combined so it's not clear who should align with whom

[Simon]

Keeping distances and speed in miles has nothing to do with pride - changing the units will kill people for absolutely no gain.

Perhaps. But if you switch, it will kill only some UK people and only during the transition period (one generation). If you don't switch, more people will be killed everywhere (because the Brits are roaming worldwide). AFAIK, in China airspace, the pilots are required to use the metric units communicating with the ATC. The same was in Russia back in USSR time. Now you can use your favorite feet and knots as long as you're flying high enough. But Chinese insists on using the metric units at all altitudes. I'm not sure it'll be a good idea to convince them to make a great leap backward. After all, there are more population than in whole West combined so it's not clear who should align with whom

People in the east have a different attitude towards the value of life I see. It's a unit, who cares what it is called. I use metric, I was brought up on both and don't mind using imperial in numbers less than 10. it's easier to say 6 inches to someone than 15 cm for some reason, but I always use metric otherwise. If I were a purist I would say 150mm, that is more of a mouthful.

But when it comes to something like planes where confusion over silly dogma will cost lives to the tune of 250 people for every mistake, just leave it as it is.

as much as I'd say use µm for PCB trace thickness - yes I am one of few that know the "µ" code it is more practical to say 1 oz, but I would not object if told I had to use µm instead, other way no one dies. One thing that annoys me is the insistence on the UK using feet/inches and stone for peoples height and weight, it baffles me.

[tggzzz]

Usually you don't need to do calculations in Imperial units; they are just arbitrary numbers with convenient round numbers.

Otherwise, as I rapidly worked out as decimal currency was being introduced, base 10 is much easier than base3/6/8/12/24/240/etc.

As I've noted in The Other Place, I've recently laid my hands on an old mechanical calculator of the type we used at school. The manual provides an interesting insight into The Good Old Days [sic]. It is 95(!) pages long, of which basic +-*/ occupy about 10 pages, square root is only one page (there's a yooootoob vid of someone doing that; tedious in the extreme!), but the largest section is devoted to calculations in Imperial units and LSD.
https://teanonymous.com/f1/viewtopic.php?p=10267#p10267

Actually, two different things are associated with Imperial units. First, the choice of unit. Second, preference for vulgar fractions. Both were perfectly adequate back at the middle age. It's amazing the system is still in use. It's like fighting with the limitations and bugs of Win95 instead of switching to WinNT. But sometimes we have to. Just improved my espresso machine with a pressure gauge. Ordered a tiny 1/8" tube fittings from China. Great care was required because 1/8 BSP does not fit 1/8 NPT while the thread type is not always specified by seller.
Modern technology helps and with a CAD, you can select unit as you desire but notice how smart the old tech is. It works because of physic laws, not against them. Modern things are actually dumb because they can't work without control electronics, which not only consumes power all the way but is a product of huge industry so it's actually a tip of the iceberg. Mechanical calculators are engineering marvels. Also, look at a slide rule. My father once explained how to use it, and I found it a bit cumbersome. But in fact, slide rule is a very versatile computing tool, not for everyone, because of the learning curve. I've a book about it, printed in 1939. The scan of foreword is attached because now it reads very funny. It's in Russian, but you can use google image translation, it works. Basically, the foreword starts with the following statement:

Currently it's easy to find here an engineer who don't know how to use slide rule. Not mentioning the clerks and workers. But abroad, not only every engineer can master the slide rule, but many technicians and skilled workers are able to use it.

I agree.

Don't forget that once upon a time there were no standards for bolts, so you couldn't interchange them between manufacturers. BSW was a major advance early in the industrial revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Standard_Whitworth

I was taught to use slide rules at school, since electronic calculators were too expensive and couldn't be used in exams. There were acknowledged short cuts, pi² = g = 10. I still have slide rule, and have occasionally thought of using it in a meeting, merely for effect

I also have too many[1] vintage 4-5 significant figure slide rules with 1000in/25.4m scales, and am currently trying to flog one on fleabay You probably can't afford it

[1] approximately 0.02% of the total number produced over 94 years

[tggzzz]

AFAIK, in China airspace, the pilots are required to use the metric units communicating with the ATC. Now you can use your favorite feet and knots as long as you're flying high enough. But Chinese insists on using the metric units at all altitudes.

Don't forget that an aircraft's altitude depends on air pressure

In aviation, a flight level (FL) is an aircraft's altitude as determined by a pressure altimeter using the International Standard Atmosphere. It is expressed in hundreds of feet or metres. The altimeter setting used is the ISA sea level pressure of 1013 hPa or 29.92 inHg. The actual surface pressure will vary from this at different locations and times. Therefore, by using a standard pressure setting, every aircraft has the same altimeter setting, and vertical clearance can be maintained during cruise flight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_level

[Analog Kid]

In aviation, a flight level (FL) is an aircraft's altitude as determined by a pressure altimeter using the International Standard Atmosphere. It is expressed in hundreds of feet or metres. The altimeter setting used is the ISA sea level pressure of 1013 hPa or 29.92 inHg.

Right. QNH and all that.
(I just recently learned about this from watching Mentour Pilot videos.)

[tggzzz]

IMO the bull is slowly being backed out of the china shop. 

Expect denials while that is happening. The people who voted for Trump will be disposed to believe the denials. Trump's non-commercial backers will still be happy due to the wrecking ball Trump is swinging in other places, notably science and education.

But the tariff issues aren't over. I actually agree with this proposed increase in import costs, even though it will make things more expensive for me:

"The [UK chancellor of the exchequer] is considering changes to rules which allow goods valued at £135 or less – often listed on sites such as Amazon, Shein and Temu – to be imported to the UK without any customs duty having to be paid. The review follows pressure from leading retailers, including Sainsbury’s and Next, who have argued that the tax break has been hijacked by fast-growing retailers such as Shein and Temu who send small parcels direct to shoppers."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/23/rachel-reeves-looks-at-ending-zero-tax-regime-for-low-value-imports

I wonder if that will spread to other countries?