Tariffs

[Zero999]

Fox News...
 

So what? It's only as bad as other US news outlets such as CNN and MSNBC, who also lie. You don't like it, because it leans the opposite direction as you. Non-US sources are much better, if you want something more objective, but again you have to take bias into account.

Talking about bias…

What about it? Can you think of anything which the current administration has done which you like/agree with? No, I don't expect you to answer that publicly. It's just a question to make you think. I can think of things the previous administration and current one which have done, which I agree with and disagree with.

Everyone has their own bias. It's a human characteristic. All organisations are run by people who have their biases, which is reflected by said organisation. Some organisations are more transparent about it, than others.

[Simon]

Now you are confusing the sort of forced biases you have with the natural tendency to err one way a bit but not actually go out looking for misinformation.

[Sorama]

Now you are confusing the sort of forced biases you have with the natural tendency to err one way a bit but not actually go out looking for misinformation.

Well said.

[tszaboo]

T'rump isn't unique in that way,

indeed,look at our own financial mess , currently being blamed on the cons,who spent 14 year blaming labour

The previous conservative president (the 45th) borrowed record $8 trillion, and the current conservative majority in Congress has given the new conservative president (the 47th) the power to borrow an additional $4 trillion. What’s missing? A conservative Fed chairman who will start printing trillions as crazy.

I'm just going to leave this one here. US government money supply chart.

I think everyone with an eye can draw conclusions.
So yes, he printed a lot of money, after a bunch of Bipartisan bills to recover after COVID. And Biden kept on doing the same for 4 years. like forgetting to close a faucet.

[nctnico]

You can draw a similar chart for any country. Hint: Covid19

[tszaboo]

You can draw a similar chart for any country. Hint: Covid19

Except it isn't. The chart goes negative in 2023 in the Eurozone.
Not that I agree with most things our politicians are doing...

I mean Biden literally did this: "I'm going to print more money to reduce inflation - I'm going to call it inflation reduction act" And the idiots like seals clapped.

[Marco]

So yes, he printed a lot of money

M1 changed because of a regulation D which caused some accounting changes which added savings accounts to the M1.

Ignoring true money printing, which didn't even happen in Weimar, monetisation is done by selling the government bonds to the central bank (or in extreme cases such as MBS, private market securities). So you have to look at the Fed's balance sheet and budget deficits.

[tggzzz]

Now you are confusing the sort of forced biases you have with the natural tendency to err one way a bit but not actually go out looking for misinformation.

Well said.

Just so.

Not difficult, really, but seeming too much for some people to comprehend.

[Analog Kid]

Fox News...
 

So what? It's only as bad as other US news outlets such as CNN and MSNBC, who also lie. You don't like it, because it leans the opposite direction as you. Non-US sources are much better, if you want something more objective, but again you have to take bias into account.

I totally disagree with you politically.
However: Fox News is no more biased than any other "lamestream" US media outlet.
In my experience, one of the most extremely biased sources here is NPR (Nat'l. Public Radio), which is (supposedly) on the opposite side of the spectrum as Fox.

Look elsewhere for non-propagandistic sources of news ...

[Analog Kid]

The annual inflation rate has jumped to 2.7% in June

It aint our fault ,its the previous incumbent who done it

You mind explaining a bit?
Not sure what you are saying.

I could be wrong, but I think he's being ironic here.

[Analog Kid]

The annual inflation rate has jumped to 2.7% in June

It aint our fault ,its the previous incumbent who done it

You mind explaining a bit?
Not sure what you are saying.

I presume he is referring to T'rumps's habit for blaming bad everything on Biden, and while taking the credit for

You mean every head of state's blaming the previous administration (of the opposite party, natch)for all the bad things, and taking credit for all the good stuff, correct?

[vad]

T'rump isn't unique in that way,

indeed,look at our own financial mess , currently being blamed on the cons,who spent 14 year blaming labour

The previous conservative president (the 45th) borrowed record $8 trillion, and the current conservative majority in Congress has given the new conservative president (the 47th) the power to borrow an additional $4 trillion. What’s missing? A conservative Fed chairman who will start printing trillions as crazy.

I'm just going to leave this one here. US government money supply chart.

I think everyone with an eye can draw conclusions.
So yes, he printed a lot of money, after a bunch of Bipartisan bills to recover after COVID. And Biden kept on doing the same for 4 years. like forgetting to close a faucet.

Right… except you are comparing oranges (M1 before May 2020) to apples (M1 starting May 2020).

In 2020, there was a significant change in how the Federal Reserve reports the M1 money supply. Before May 2020, savings account balances at US banks were excluded from M1 and counted only in M2. However, following regulatory changes that removed the 6-withdrawal limit previously imposed on savings accounts, these deposits were reclassified and have been included in M1 since May 2020.

This redefinition is the sole reason for the sharp increase observed in the M1 data beginning in May 2020.

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply/

[tszaboo]

T'rump isn't unique in that way,

indeed,look at our own financial mess , currently being blamed on the cons,who spent 14 year blaming labour

The previous conservative president (the 45th) borrowed record $8 trillion, and the current conservative majority in Congress has given the new conservative president (the 47th) the power to borrow an additional $4 trillion. What’s missing? A conservative Fed chairman who will start printing trillions as crazy.

I'm just going to leave this one here. US government money supply chart.

I think everyone with an eye can draw conclusions.
So yes, he printed a lot of money, after a bunch of Bipartisan bills to recover after COVID. And Biden kept on doing the same for 4 years. like forgetting to close a faucet.

Right… except you are comparing oranges (M1 before May 2020) to apples (M1 starting May 2020).

In 2020, there was a significant change in how the Federal Reserve reports the M1 money supply. Before May 2020, savings account balances at US banks were excluded from M1 and counted only in M2. However, following regulatory changes that removed the 6-withdrawal limit previously imposed on savings accounts, these deposits were reclassified and have been included in M1 since May 2020.

This redefinition is the sole reason for the sharp increase observed in the M1 data beginning in May 2020.

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply/

Thanks. I was hoping for this. This makes my argument even stronger, and yours even weaker.

[vad]

Thanks. I was hoping for this. This makes my argument even stronger, and yours even weaker.

Your argument falls short because it is based on the wrong chart. If you’d like to continue a constructive discussion about monetary supply trends over the past 5-6 years, please start by sharing the M2 chart, which, unlike the M1 chart, did not experience a discontinuity on May 1, 2020.

[Psi]

One of my bulk shipments of electronics products from NZ to my USA distributor just got hit with 50% tariff for a HS code they didn't specify.

From the customs doc it looks like someone re-classified it as 'aluminum extrusion' instead of an electronics product.
The product does have an aluminum extrusion enclosure but should be classified as an electronics product not raw matierals.

The distributor is looking into it at their end, seems like an error to me.
Anyone else have that issue?

If it's not an error, or they cant fix it, we will have to ship the product in 2 batches, one box with only the aluminum enclosure so only that gets hit with 50% instead of the entire order.

[andy3055]

Don't you guys classify items shipped with BTN numbers and describe them so that it falls under the given category? Even then the goons at customs can simply classify the item based on the outside appearance and the most taxable BTN number, I guess.

[tautech]

Don't you guys classify items shipped with BTN numbers and describe them so that it falls under the given category? Even then the goons at customs can simply classify the item based on the outside appearance and the most taxable BTN number, I guess.

They make mistakes but if your product import classification has never changed and been operative for some time you should be able to pull them into line......we have had to for NZ imports.

[EEVblog]

Right… except you are comparing oranges (M1 before May 2020) to apples (M1 starting May 2020).

In 2020, there was a significant change in how the Federal Reserve reports the M1 money supply. Before May 2020, savings account balances at US banks were excluded from M1 and counted only in M2. However, following regulatory changes that removed the 6-withdrawal limit previously imposed on savings accounts, these deposits were reclassified and have been included in M1 since May 2020.

This redefinition is the sole reason for the sharp increase observed in the M1 data beginning in May 2020.

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply/

Fixed it.

[vad]

Right… except you are comparing oranges (M1 before May 2020) to apples (M1 starting May 2020).

In 2020, there was a significant change in how the Federal Reserve reports the M1 money supply. Before May 2020, savings account balances at US banks were excluded from M1 and counted only in M2. However, following regulatory changes that removed the 6-withdrawal limit previously imposed on savings accounts, these deposits were reclassified and have been included in M1 since May 2020.

This redefinition is the sole reason for the sharp increase observed in the M1 data beginning in May 2020.

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply/

Fixed it.

TY. Alternatively, you could have taken the M2 chart from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL The criteria for M2 have not changed in May 2020. I could have done that myself, but it is cumbersome to do on a mobile device…

The US government itself does not print money. The US money supply is managed by the Federal Reserve, which operates independently of the federal government. The government, on the other hand, borrows existing money by issuing debt. Borrowing itself is not inflationary. Inflation is caused by monetary expansion (by the Fed) through interest rate drops and quantitative easing, similar to how issuing more shares dilutes the value of existing shares.

In 2020, the Fed sharply lowered interest rates and injected a substantial amount of liquidity into the economy. This led to a historic surge in the money supply. In 2022, as inflation surged due to the monetary expansion of 2020-22, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates. This caused the money supply to contract at a record pace (they say the steepest contraction since the 1960s), as shown on the right-hand side of the chart Dave edited.

Relating all of this to the 45th, 46th, and 47th administrations: I understand the borrowing that occurred under the 45th and 46th administrations, which aimed to mitigate the economic impact of COVID lockdowns and global trade disruptions. The COVID impact did not end with the election of Biden; it lasted into 2022-23 (remind me, when did the chip shortage end?)

But, hey fiscal conservatives, what is the reason for the current $4 trillion borrowing under the 47th administration? Are we in COVID lockdowns? No. Has the economy crashed? According to both Fox News and the White House press secretary, no, and this is a rare occasion where I agree with both.

Also, neither the 45th nor the 46th administration bullied the Federal Reserve to influence monetary policy. Why is the 47th doing that now? What has happened? Unemployment is at a record low, and the economy is doing well according to both Fox News and the White House, and again, I happen to agree with them.

[tszaboo]

The US government itself does not print money.

You can twist it any way you want. The federal reserve has a board of governors, which is appointed by the president, to implement the monetary policy made by the president.
Or some other unelected shadow government, that signs bills with autopen, and does anything they want apparently.
Please stop trying to weasel out of their responsibility. It's empty words.

[vad]

The US government itself does not print money.

You can twist it any way you want. The federal reserve has a board of governors, which is appointed by the president, to implement the monetary policy made by the president.
Or some other unelected shadow government, that signs bills with autopen, and does anything they want apparently.
Please stop trying to weasel out of their responsibility. It's empty words.

The Fed is independent and doesn’t take monetary policy orders from the president. While the president appoints the Board of Governors, the Fed sets monetary policy on its own.

So your frustration with the 46th administration not being able to force J. Powell to raise rates faster in 2022 is baseless.

I can give you more examples where the president makes appointments, but the appointees work independently and do not report to the president. Federal judges are a prime example: they are appointed by the president, but the president cannot influence their rulings.

There are many ways to learn about how the government actually works. Instead of spreading conspiracy theories (“unelected shadow government” ) and posting misleading charts (the M1 chart with known discontinuity ), take a civics class. Harvard, for example, offers a free one, highly recommended.

[Analog Kid]

I can give you more examples where the president makes appointments, but the appointees work independently and do not report to the president. Federal judges are a prime example: they are appointed by the president, but the president cannot influence their rulings.

There seems to be a certain amount of sophistry in this statement of yours. Which makes @tszaboo's concerns seem valid.
Yes, the president cannot issue direct marching orders to any of his appointees, as you correctly pointed out.
However, it seems quite obvious that there's sufficient leverage to get them to carry out said marching orders nonetheless;
all he's got to do is fire their ass.
Like the way Trump has fired what, hundreds? of immigration judges recently, leaving those posts un-personned and leading to a huge backlog in cases and increased caseload.

Dunno how the Fed works exactly, but I assume they're also susceptible to this same sort of influence.

[vad]

I can give you more examples where the president makes appointments, but the appointees work independently and do not report to the president. Federal judges are a prime example: they are appointed by the president, but the president cannot influence their rulings.

There seems to be a certain amount of sophistry in this statement of yours. Which makes @tszaboo's concerns seem valid.
Yes, the president cannot issue direct marching orders to any of his appointees, as you correctly pointed out.
However, it seems quite obvious that there's sufficient leverage to get them to carry out said marching orders nonetheless;
all he's got to do is fire their ass.
Like the way Trump has fired what, hundreds? of immigration judges recently, leaving those posts un-personned and leading to a huge backlog in cases and increased caseload.

Dunno how the Fed works exactly, but I assume they're also susceptible to this same sort of influence.

Well, there seems to be a certain amount of sophistry in your statement, doesn’t there? Immigration judges are not independent federal judges like those in district or appellate courts. They are administrative judges who work for the DOJ and, like all DOJ employees, ultimately report to the Attorney General.

The Fed Chair cannot be fired for failing to follow the president’s preferences on monetary policy. And tszaboo’s regret that the 46th president did not force J. Powell to raise interest rates sooner is simply an uneducated rant. It is not the president’s role to set monetary policy.

Sure, there are many ways to influence people unlawfully, but the 46th administration was not known for taking that path.

[PlainName]

However, it seems quite obvious that there's sufficient leverage to get them to carry out said marching orders nonetheless;
all he's got to do is fire their ass.
Like the way Trump has fired what, hundreds?

Like the way Trump is threatening to fire the Fed head but, nevertheless, the Fed is not doing what he wants?

(Which is tariff related - the Fed is not doing Trumps bidding because of the tariffs.)

[tszaboo]

However, it seems quite obvious that there's sufficient leverage to get them to carry out said marching orders nonetheless;
all he's got to do is fire their ass.
Like the way Trump has fired what, hundreds?

Like the way Trump is threatening to fire the Fed head but, nevertheless, the Fed is not doing what he wants?

(Which is tariff related - the Fed is not doing Trumps bidding because of the tariffs.)

Yes yes, you clearly cannot influence someone, who you appoint to implement your monetary policy.
But let's fight a strawman. Me saying that the "president has direct control over the FED". Instead of what I actually sad:
The current administration doesn't have to borrow a trillion dollars every 3 months to keep the country running.
Notice that I said administration? Somehow I dropped the ball, and started arguing about something I didn't actually say. And then throw in a bit of Vranyo and here we are Vadim claiming victory over the fool.