.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.
But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?One can also ask how long they would have lived if they didn't have pre-existing conditions. Judging by the numbers the overwhelming majority would likely have been fine. This virus seems to bring any existing cracks to light. Regardless, it seems sensible to count them as Covid deaths but as far as I can tell that's happening.
Noticed nice detail ... a small gesture of valuable gratitude .. a special printed boarding pass ...
Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance.
Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda .
The first casualty of war is the truth.
.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.There is also a parameter called "viral load".
An expert from a virology lab [no reference, sorry] was talking on the cov19 vs. flu and he mentioned "..the viral load of the sars-cov-2 in the samples of our asymptotic patient was unbelievably high compared to influenza-A, the same load with flu and you would be dead.."
How the viral load could affect those calculations?
Aww c'mon. Do you really think that the criteria for "seriously ill enough to need a hospital bed" are going to be downgraded from an abundance of caution at a time when there is pressure on hospital beds?
I think at this point it's becoming pretty clear that you want to believe this to be less serious then it is and you're not going to be convinced by the pretty conclusive evidence that we've already seen that this is an order of magnitude more serious than seasonal flu.
Taking a reasoned, proportioned reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic, based on facts, is one thing. It helps no one if people's reaction to this gets out of proportion. Downplaying it to the point of near denial of how serious the situation is, is just as unhelpful in the other direction.
This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.
The video is propaganda .
The first casualty of war is the truth.
Others have pointed out the distinction made by the Italian statistics, but let me add that even in today's conference by the "Protezione Civile", Roberto Bernabei, specialist in geriatry, said that of the first 355 clinical documentations analyzed resulted that "only 3 patients died FOR coronavirus", all the others dies WITH coronavirus. I mean, I understand when they did that pantomime the first and second week, to try sugarcoat the pill, but now...
A member of the press asked why there is such a big difference in mortality (or letality - it's the press) between Italy and Germany and the answer was on the line of 'we don't know how these deaths are classified". Now, it's possible the the German had small clusters promptly identified and isolated and that extensive testing of nonsymptomatic patients is keeping the count down, but back in february when Italy had run 20 thousand tests, only 2000 were positive. Where were all those asymptomatic ninjas?
Also, do you believe Iran is giving the right number of deaths?
But, aside from this, my point is that it's the media that is making this distinction, namely that you don't die of Covid-19. You die of other illnesses and covid-19 just give old farts with a foot in the grave the coup-de-grace.
And you can see this is the message that goes to the masses and is surfacing in this very forum as well.
It kills old people with preexisting conditions.
WHOOOOOO, SPRING BREAK!!! LET'S PARTYYYYYYEEEEAHHHHHHH!!!
Let me ask you something: how many people over sixty has a preexisting condition that can result in death from covid-19?
Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda .
The first casualty of war is the truth.Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right.
The worldometer website at the time om writing reports 4032 deaths. Are you saying these are exclusively healthy people with no pre-existing conditions and that when those are included the number is much higher?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
We have been told by doctors here masks worn by the public do nothing unless the wearer has the virus. I went shopping yesterday in a shopping centre, and except for one westerner the only people wearing marks were Chinese.
Maybe we have been fed by our government too because they did not want a run on masks.
Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance.
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.
I am just curious: do you happen to own a red baseball hat?
I am just curious: do you happen to own a red baseball hat?
Now keep it civil, he's clearly not that deluded.
Nothing wrong with my Cardinals hat!
.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.There is also a parameter called "viral load".
An expert from a virology lab [no reference, sorry] was talking on the cov19 vs. flu and he mentioned "..the viral load of the sars-cov-2 in the samples of our asymptotic patient was unbelievably high compared to influenza-A, the same load with flu and you would be dead.."
How the viral load could affect those calculations?
It doesn't. R0 and case fatality ratio may be an effect of viral load, but they measure end points that might be affected by viral load not something that you can then add a 'viral load' factor to.
The Spanish flu some 100 years ago was pretty nasty and devastating - let us hope it does not get that bad. So it depends on which flu season one compares. A big difference with the flu is that at least the medical personal is usually vaccinated. So treatment in the hospitals is much easier - much less personal and masks needed. Still the death toll from the regular flu can be pretty high, but it is largely unnoticed as is does not overwhelm the medical system so easy. Most of the years the flu shot is pretty effective so the spread is slowed down and limited.
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it.
Some doctor said it might be related to that missing leg in the XY chromosomes.
But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?
Noticed nice detail ... a small gesture of valuable gratitude .. a special printed boarding pass ...
Something not right here. Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's. Notice all the carefully selected scenery is modern and clean. Heaps of red army style saluting going on. All these exhausted doctors are all laughing and happy. They would be suffering from exhaustion in reality, and they would be emotional wrecks after they have witnessed so much misery. Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda .
The first casualty of war is the truth.
Let me ask you something: how many people over sixty has a preexisting condition that can result in death from covid-19?