Are you reading the same charts?
2016 Sales (US) 158,614
2017 Sales (US) 199,818
2018 Sales (US) 308,003
I guess if you round up to the nearest integer it counts as doubling of sales between 2017 and 2018. Barely. The totals are impressive and a good trend, but let's be honest. Even if December sales are off the chart it will be less than double. A believer sees the world in their own way, just as non-believers do.
The trend is clear and unless something changes (major recession, a kink in the supply chain, sudden drop in oil prices) it is clear that sales will be into a double digit percentage of total sales in the next few years. Which would be one metric for the title of the thread- electric becoming mainstream.
One thing I found interesting was the percentage of worldwide sales in the US. That is the climate change denying, car bedazzled, some of the lowest gas prices in the world, relatively long driving distances US. Electrics are sold at about the same percentage of total sales here as in the rest of the world, even though many of the factors involved in their selection seem to work against US sales. What is going on in the rest of the world?
I'm talking year over year comparison for November (i.e. monthly) sales.
November 2017: 17,178
November 2018: 39,274
Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.
Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.The people I know with a PHEV got them because they do a lot of short journeys. They get a lot of their mileage from their mains charges.
Yeah, monthly data is too noisy. I mean gee, electric sales dropped by a quarter from October to November. Electric cars must be going the way of Bitcoin.
Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.
Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.
Absolute bullshit. On several levels.
PHEVs are EVs. Most have ranges which allow >90% of driving to be all electric.
In the Netherlands all tax incentives on PHEVs got cancelled because the cars where running on fuel and not electricity.
Summary of this thread:
Question: Are EVs on track to become mainstream?
One side:
Factual data on rapid EV sales growth and adoption rates.
Factual data on expansion of EV models being sold by multiple manufacturers.
Factual data regarding automaker plans to continue to expand EV offerings.
Factual data regarding automaker investment in developing new EVs.
Factual data regarding driving habits and feasibility of widespread adoption.
Reality of necessary phase out of fossil fuel vehicles.
First hand reports from several EV owners.
The other side:
Opinions, speculation and misinformation.
Of course first hand reports from EV owners is good data. First hand reports of ICE owners is opinion.
And the need to phase out fossil fuel vehicles is not a commandment to electric vehicles. Electric vehicles are one solution.
An arguably better solution is to go to high density housing and electric mass transit.
There are facts and data available. Why not apply them and stop selling
Using the sales data from the recent post you can provide one answer to the question. The data fit an exponential growth pattern reasonably well. You can extrapolate that into the future and get an answer, depending on your definition of mainstream. In my mind the lowest penetration that would qualify is 10% while 50% penetration would be pretty undeniable. With exponential growth the difference between the answers is not really significant. 10% comes in 2027 and 50% comes in 2029.
The argument now becomes whether that growth rate can be maintained. The chart does make clear the scale of the change that will have to occur to make it true.
Of course first hand reports from EV owners is good data. First hand reports of ICE owners is opinion.
Nonsense. ICE vehicle owners reporting info about ICE vehicle ownership is data. ICE only owners speculating about EV ownership experience is speculation not data. And BTW I don't think there are any EV owners here (and very few anywhere) who have not also owned an ICE vehicle.
The revised graph is attached. Crossover points move to 2021 for 10% and 2023 for 50%
EV's are going to continue to gain popularity for quite some time, ICE vehicles are not going to vanish any time soon but larger and larger percentages of cars on the road are going to be EVs, the fact that they work for a great many people is just that, a fact.
clearly showed the majority of the people doesn't want to have an EV due to limitations in their current state of technology.
Quoteclearly showed the majority of the people doesn't want to have an EV due to limitations in their current state of technology.Well, your study is clearly BS, because it has been proven wrong since.
I would like to point out that every new ICE car sold very often means two ICE car sales, one new and one second hand. In the (new) car sales graphs we only see one of them.
There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond. It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.